New York Mets vs Houston Astros Prediction, 3/29/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: New York Mets vs Houston Astros

Date: Saturday, March 29, 2025

Location: Daikin Park in Houston, TX

TV: Space City Home Network

Odds/Point Spread: New York (-132) Houston (+110)

The Houston Astros (88-73 last season) will play the New York Mets (89-73 last year) at Daikin Park on Saturday. The odds on this game have the Mets at -132 while the Astros are priced at +110. The total is set at 9. The expected starting pitchers will be Griffin Canning and Spencer Arrighetti.

As a unit, the New York Mets compiled 4.7 runs per contest, which had them sitting at 7th in baseball. They notched a total of 768 runs while having a team OBP of .319. The Mets tallied 279 two-baggers as a squad and hit 207 baseballs out of the park. They recorded 735 runs batted in in addition to 1,357 hits in the prior season, and their average at the plate was .246. New York had a slugging % of .415 and were called out on strikes 1,382 times, while taking a walk on 514 occasions.

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The Mets finished with a team earned run average of 3.96 over the course of the prior season (15th in MLB), and the staff rung up 1,455 hitters. Mets pitchers conceded 165 long balls in addition to 697 total runs (15th in baseball). Their pitching staff walked 586 batters and their FIP came in at 4.05 as a team during the previous year. New York allowed 1,232 base hits (7.7 per 9 innings) and 634 earned runs. They accumulated a K/BB ratio of 2.48 and the pitching staff had a team WHIP of 1.26.

Mets bullpen pitchers came into the game with runners on 159 times and also had 173 contests in high leverage situations. The relief pitchers earned 97 holds last season (8th in MLB). The Mets bullpen compiled a save rate of 60.9% and came into the game in 163 save situations. They earned 39 saves in the prior season and did not convert 25 out of their 64 chances to save the game. The bullpen inherited 214 runners last season and 34.1% of them earned a run for their team. The Mets dispatched 516 relief pitchers to the hill over the course of last year.

The New York Mets notched a total of 4,327 putouts for the previous season, as well as 1,408 assists and 94 errors. Their fielding percentage finished at .984 which was 25th in MLB, and they turned 127 double plays. The Mets turned 70.4% of baseballs in play into outs out of 12,981 innings on the field, which ranked them 9th in baseball.

Canning has thrown 508 innings and has racked up 483 punch outs so far in his pro baseball career. His ERA is 4.78 (270 earned runs allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.333. He has allowed 494 base knocks (8.8 hits per 9 innings) and has had 183 free passes. Canning (25-34 career win-loss mark) sits with a FIP of 4.71 and he has gone up against 2,174 batters in the majors.

The Astros had a team slugging percentage of .418 and they earned 4.60 runs per game (10th in the league). They hit 264 two-baggers, while taking a walk 448 times and earning 740 runs. Houston had 190 home runs over the course of last year to go along with 701 runs batted in. They were called out on strikes on 1,176 occasions (28th in MLB) and had 1,448 hits. The Houston Astros accounted for an on-base percentage of .322 and a batting average of .262 last year.

The Houston pitching staff allowed 649 runs for the prior year while holding an ERA of 3.74 (595 earned runs conceded). They gave up 183 home runs and they conceded 4.08 runs per 9 innings (7th in baseball). The Astros finished with a team WHIP of 1.244 and were the owners of a FIP of 4.03 as a pitching staff during the previous year. Their K/BB ratio sat at 9.30 (1,479 strikeouts vs 544 walks). They were sitting at 4th in baseball as a staff in total hits conceded with 1,238.

Ending the season with 165 save situations, the Astros accrued 94 holds in addition to 26 blown saves. Houston called on bullpen pitchers to step onto the hill in 69 save opportunities and they came away with 43 saves. Their relief pitchers came in 155 times in high leverage situations in addition to 104 occasions with runners on. Houston bullpen pitchers had an inherited score rate of 29.9% out of their 157 inherited runners. They were ranked 19th in baseball holding a save percentage of 62.3%, and they dispatched 511 relievers to the hill last year.

The Houston Astros had 130 double plays and accounted for a fielding rate of .985 (16th in pro baseball). The Astros recorded 1,312 assists, 84 errors and are sitting with 4,296 putouts over the course of last season. In 12,888 innings played, the Astros held a defensive efficiency of 70.4% (11th in professional baseball).

During his MLB career, Arrighetti has allowed 139 base knocks while earning 171 punch outs in 145 frames. He has given up a total of 73 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.407 and having a FIP of 4.5. His strikeout to walk ratio is 2.63 and he has gone up against 632 opposing hitters in his pro baseball career. Arrighetti (7-13 career win-loss record) has a 4.53 ERA and has given up 8.6 hits per 9 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take New York (-132)

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