New York Mets vs Houston Astros Prediction, 3/28/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: New York Mets vs Houston Astros

Date: Friday, March 28, 2025

Location: Daikin Park in Houston, TX

TV: Space City Home Network

Odds/Point Spread: New York (-196) Houston (+162)

The New York Mets (89-73 last year) are traveling to Daikin Park on Friday where they will attempt to beat the Houston Astros (88-73 last season). The line on this matchup has New York at -196 and Houston is at +162. The total comes in at 8. The pitchers who are expected to start are Tylor Megill and Hunter Brown.

New York had a slugging percentage of .415 and were called out on strikes 1,382 times, while drawing a walk on 514 occasions. They compiled 735 runs batted in as well as 1,357 hits last season, and their average at the plate was .246. The Mets accounted for 279 two-baggers as a unit and hit 207 baseballs out of the park. They tallied 768 runs scored while holding a team OBP of .319. As a team, the New York Mets notched 4.7 runs per game, which was 7th in MLB.

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Their strikeout to walk ratio was 2.48 and the pitching staff earned a collective WHIP of 1.26. Mets pitchers gave up 165 home runs in addition to 697 runs in total (15th in MLB). New York allowed 1,232 base hits (7.7 per 9 innings) as well as 634 earned runs. The Mets had an ERA of 3.96 over the course of last year (15th in the league), and their staff struck out 1,455 hitters. They walked 586 hitters and their FIP was 4.05 as a unit over the course of last season.

The Mets relief pitchers had a save percentage of 60.9% and entered the game in 163 save situations. The bullpen inherited 214 runners last year and 34.1% of them crossed the plate. Mets bullpen pitchers entered the contest with runners on 159 times as well as having 173 contests in high leverage situations. The Mets had dispatched 516 relief pitchers to the mound during the previous year. The relief pitchers recorded 97 holds in the prior season (8th in baseball). They had 39 saves last season and did not convert 25 of their 64 save chances.

The Mets turned 70.4% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 12,981 innings, which had them ranked 9th in professional baseball. The New York Mets finished with 4,327 putouts for the prior year, in addition to 1,408 assists and 94 errors. Their fielding percentage held steady at .984 which had them sitting 25th in MLB, and had a total of 127 double plays.

Megill has thrown 341 innings and has accumulated 346 K's so far in his career. His earned run average is 4.56 (173 ER's allowed) and his WHIP is 1.393. He has given up 345 base hits (9.1 hits per nine innings) with 130 walks. Megill (21-21 record in his career) sits with a FIP of 4.50 and he has faced 1,483 batters during his time in the majors.

The Houston Astros tallied an OBP of .322 in addition to a team batting average of .262 over the course of last season. They struck out on 1,176 occasions (28th in baseball) and had a total of 1,448 hits. Houston had a total of 190 home runs in the previous season in addition to 701 RBIs. The Astros held a slugging percentage of .418 and they were scoring 4.60 runs per outing (10th in the league). They recorded 264 doubles, while walking 448 times and scoring 740 runs.

The Astros had a team WHIP of 1.244 in addition to having a FIP of 4.03 as a unit over the course of last year. Their K/BB ratio came in at 9.30 (1,479 strikeouts vs 544 bases on balls). They ranked 4th in MLB as a staff in total hits relinquished with 1,238. They allowed 183 homers and they surrender 4.08 runs per 9 innings (7th in the league). The Houston pitching staff surrendered 649 runs over the course of last season while having a team ERA of 3.74 (595 earned runs allowed).

Houston had relievers step onto the mound in 69 save opportunities and they converted 43 saves. They were ranked 19th in baseball with a save rate of 62.3%, and they sent 511 relief pitchers to the mound last year. Their relief pitchers came in 155 times in high leverage situations and on 104 occasions with runners on base. Houston bullpen pitchers had an inherited score percentage of 29.9% of 157 inherited base runners. Finishing with 165 save situations, the Astros compiled 94 holds in addition to 26 blown saves.

Out of their 12,888 innings on the field, the Astros held a defensive efficiency of 70.4% (11th in MLB). The Houston Astros turned 130 double plays and accounted for a fielding rate of .985 (16th in baseball). The Astros racked up 1,312 assists, 84 errors and a tally of 4,296 putouts in the previous season.

Brown (24-22 career win-loss mark) is the owner of a 4.06 earned run average and has given up 8.5 hits per 9 innings. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.11 and he has gone up against 1,457 opposing batters during his MLB career. He has allowed a total of 156 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.301 and having a FIP of 4.0. In his MLB career, Brown has allowed 328 base hits while he has earned 379 K's in 346 innings pitched.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take New York (-196)

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