New York Mets vs Houston Astros Prediction, 3/27/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: New York Mets vs Houston Astros

Date: Thursday, March 27, 2025

Location: Daikin Park in Houston, TX

TV: Space City Home Network

Odds/Point Spread: New York (-196) Houston (+162)

The Houston Astros (88-73 last season) will compete against the New York Mets (89-73 last year) at Daikin Park on Thursday. The odds on this game have the Mets at -196 while the Astros are opening at +162. The over/under is 9. The pitchers expected to start will be Clay Holmes and Framber Valdez.

As a unit, the New York Mets earned 4.7 runs per game, which had them at 7th in MLB. They had a total of 768 runs scored and held an OBP of .319. The Mets tallied 279 two-baggers as a team and hit 207 baseballs out of the stadium. They tallied 735 runs batted in in addition to 1,357 base knocks for the prior year, and their team batting average finished at .246. New York had a slugging % of .415 and were called out on strikes 1,382 times, while taking a walk on 514 occasions.

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They had a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.48 and the pitching staff held a collective WHIP of 1.26. Mets pitchers relinquished 165 home runs in addition to 697 runs in total (15th in the league). New York allowed 1,232 base knocks (7.7 per 9 innings) and 634 earned runs. The Mets finished with a team ERA of 3.96 in the prior season (15th in the league), and their staff rung up 1,455 hitters. Their pitching staff walked 586 hitters and their FIP finished at 4.05 as a unit last season.

Mets relief pitchers went to the mound with runners on base 159 times and also had 173 contests in high leverage situations. The relief pitchers finished with 97 holds over the course of the prior season (8th in baseball). The Mets bullpen accumulated a save rate of 60.9% and came into the game in 163 save situations. They had 39 saves in the prior season and missed out on 25 of 64 chances to save the game. The relief pitchers inherited 214 runners for the prior year and 34.1% of those runners ended up scoring. The Mets had sent 516 relief pitchers to the hill last season.

The Mets turned 70.4% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 12,981 innings on the field, which had them ranked 9th in pro baseball. The New York Mets earned a total of 4,327 putouts over the course of last year, in addition to 1,408 assists and 94 errors. Their fielding percentage held steady at .984 which had them sitting 25th in MLB, and they turned 127 double plays.

Holmes has taken the mound for 337 innings and has tallied 360 strikeouts during his pro baseball career. Holmes (24-22 record in his career) sits with a FIP of 3.66 and he has faced 1,460 opposing hitters in the major leagues. His earned run average is 3.71 (139 ER's allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.302. He has conceded 286 hits (7.6 hits per 9 innings) with 153 walks.

Houston had 190 home runs last season to go along with 701 RBIs. They notched 264 doubles, while taking a walk 448 times as well as putting up 740 runs. The Houston Astros held a team on-base percentage of .322 as well as a team batting average of .262 during the previous year. The Astros held a slugging % of .418 and they averaged 4.60 runs per contest (10th in MLB). They were called out on strikes on 1,176 instances (28th in MLB) and accounted for 1,448 hits.

The Houston pitching staff surrendered 649 runs for the previous season while having a team ERA of 3.74 (595 earned runs conceded). They conceded 183 long balls and they yielded 4.08 runs per 9 innings (7th in the league). The Astros had a WHIP of 1.244 in addition to having a FIP of 4.03 as a pitching staff for the previous season. Their strikeout to walk ratio was 9.30 (1,479 strikeouts against 544 bases on balls). They had a ranking of 4th in baseball as a staff in total hits relinquished with 1,238.

Wrapping up the year with 165 save situations, the Astros earned 94 holds in addition to 26 blown saves. Houston called on bullpen pitchers to enter the game in 69 save chances and they earned 43 saves. Their bullpen pitchers took the field 155 times in high leverage situations in addition to 104 occasions with runners on base. Houston bullpen pitchers had an inherited score rate of 29.9% out of their 157 inherited base runners. They were ranked 19th in baseball with a save rate of 62.3%, and they sent 511 relief pitchers to the mound last year.

In 12,888 innings on the field, the Astros finished with a defensive efficiency of 70.4% (11th in baseball). The Houston Astros had 130 double plays and had a fielding rate of .985 (16th in baseball). The Astros racked up 1,312 assists, 84 errors and accounted for 4,296 putouts over the course of last year.

Valdez (68-41 career win-loss record) has a 3.30 earned run average and has surrendered 7.5 hits per 9 innings. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.70 and he has faced 3,681 opposing batters thus far in his career. He has allowed 326 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.196 and having a FIP of 3.3. So far in his pro baseball career, Valdez has given up 741 base knocks while he has tallied 866 K's in 888 innings pitched.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take New York (-196)

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