Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, 3/31/2024 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays

Date: Sunday, March 31, 2024

Location: Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL

TV: Sportsnet

The Toronto Blue Jays (89-73 last year) are traveling to Tropicana Field on Sunday where they will take on the Tampa Bay Rays (99-63 last season). The pitchers who are expected to start will be Bowden Francis and Tyler Alexander.

As a team, the Toronto Blue Jays recorded 4.6 runs per contest, which had them at 15th in baseball. They notched a total of 746 runs scored while holding a team on-base percentage of .329. The Blue Jays accumulated 292 two-baggers as a team and hit 188 balls out of the stadium. They had 706 runs batted in as well as 1,424 hits over the course of the prior season, and their team batting average sat at .256. Toronto had a slugging percentage of .417 and struck out 1,303 times, while taking a walk on 550 occasions.

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The Blue Jays compiled a team ERA of 3.78 last season (4th in baseball), and their staff struck out 1,528 batters. Blue Jays pitchers gave up 198 home runs in addition to 671 total runs (6th in MLB). They walked 488 opposing hitters and their FIP was 4.06 as a squad over the course of last year. Toronto conceded 1,326 base hits (8.2 per 9 innings) and also 610 earned runs. They had a K/BB ratio of 3.13 and their pitching staff earned a collective WHIP of 1.25.

The Blue Jays bullpen earned a save rate of 73.9% and stepped onto the mound in 175 save situations. The relievers inherited 236 base runners last season with 22.9% of those runners crossed home plate. Blue Jays pitchers entered the contest with players on base 166 times in addition to having 192 games in high leverage situations. The Blue Jays had sent 550 relievers to the hill last season. The relief pitchers earned 106 holds over the course of the prior season (2nd in baseball). They recorded 51 saves during the previous year and blew 18 out of their 69 save chances.

The Toronto Blue Jays earned a total of 4,355 putouts over the course of last year, in addition to 1,307 assists and 71 errors. Their fielding percentage held steady at .988 which had them ranked 6th in baseball, and had a total of 125 double plays. The Blue Jays converted 69.3% of baseballs in play into outs out of their 13,065 innings, which ranked them 16th in the majors.

Francis has pitched in 37 innings and is sitting with 36 K's during his pro baseball career. Francis (1-0 career record) has earned a FIP of 3.79 while he has gone up against 139 batters in the major leagues. His earned run average is 1.70 (7 ER's allowed) and his career WHIP is 0.838. He has conceded 23 base hits (5.6 hits per nine innings) and has 8 free passes.

Tampa Bay knocked in 230 long balls over the course of last year to go along with 827 RBIs. They hit 282 doubles, while getting a free base 514 times and notching 860 runs. The Tampa Bay Rays earned an OBP of .331 and a team batting average of .260 over the course of last season. The Rays held a team slugging percentage of .445 and they earned 5.31 runs per game (4th in the league). They were called out on strikes on 1,420 instances (13th in baseball) and totaled 1,432 base knocks.

The Rays had a team WHIP of 1.178 with a FIP of 3.81 as a staff in the previous season. They earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 9.40 (1,507 strikeouts against 439 free passes). They were sitting at 2nd in baseball as a staff in total hits given up with 1,259. They allowed 177 home runs and they yielded 4.15 runs per 9 innings (5th in baseball). The Tampa Bay pitching staff allowed 665 runs for the previous season while having a team ERA of 3.86 (619 earned runs surrendered).

Tampa Bay called on bullpen pitchers to enter the game in 76 save chances and they walked away with 45 saves. They were ranked 20th in baseball holding a save rate of 59.2%, and they sent 536 relievers to the hill last season. Their relief pitchers came in 163 times in high leverage situations and on 121 occasions with base runners. Tampa Bay bullpen pitchers held an inherited score rate of 28.4% out of their 183 inherited base runners. Ending the season with 155 save situations, the Rays recorded 78 holds in addition to 31 blown saves.

The Tampa Bay Rays turned 114 double plays and earned a fielding percentage of .987 (9th in pro baseball). The Rays accrued 1,401 assists, 74 errors and accounted for 4,326 putouts last year. In their 12,978 innings played, the Rays had a efficiency on defense of 70.3% (5th in baseball).

So far in his career, Alexander has surrendered 365 base hits while tallying 273 K's in 341 innings. Alexander (11-23 career mark) has earned a 4.38 earned run average while surrendering 9.6 hits per 9 innings. He has given up a total of 166 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.286 and having a FIP of 4.6. His K/BB ratio is 3.69 and he has faced 1,446 opposing hitters in his career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Toronto

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