Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Prediction, 10/1/2023 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets

Date: Sunday, October 1, 2023

Location: Citi Field in Queens, NY

TV: SportsNet NY

Odds/Point Spread: Philadelphia (-115) New York (-105)

The New York Mets (72-86) will try to beat the Philadelphia Phillies (89-70) at Citi Field on Sunday. The moneyline on this matchup has the Phillies at -115 and the Mets are priced at -105. The total is set at 9. The pitchers expected to start will be Michael Lorenzen and Jose Butto.

As a squad, the Philadelphia Phillies are notching 4.9 runs per game, which is 8th in baseball. They have earned 780 runs scored while holding a team OBP of .327. The Phillies have compiled 289 doubles as a unit and have smacked 217 balls out of the park. They have accrued 755 runs batted in and 1,390 hits on the campaign, and their batting average is at .256. Philadelphia has a slugging percentage of .439 and have struck out 1,452 times, while taking a walk on 532 occasions.

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Their K/BB ratio is 3.08 and their pitching staff holds a WHIP of 1.24. Phillies pitchers have yielded 180 home runs and also 699 runs in total (12th in MLB). Philadelphia has given up 1,301 base knocks (8.3 per 9 innings) and 631 earned runs. The Phillies have a team earned run average of 4.01 this year (11th in baseball), and the staff has rung up 1,428 hitters. They have walked 463 opposing hitters and their FIP is 3.97 as a unit so far this season.

The Phillies have sent 513 relievers to the mound this year. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 180 runners this season and 34.4% of them earned a run for their team. They have 45 saves this season and have not converted 26 of their 71 save chances. The Phillies relief pitchers have recorded a save rate of 63.4% and stepped onto the hill in 156 save situations. The bullpen have tallied 85 holds for the season (14th in the league). Phillies pitchers have come into the game with opponents on base 129 times in addition to having 179 appearances in high leverage situations.

The Phillies have turned 69.3% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 12,756 innings, which has them sitting 16th in baseball. The Philadelphia Phillies have accounted for 4,252 putouts at this point in the season, in addition to 1,365 assists and 88 errors. Their fielding percentage sits at .985 which is 18th in professional baseball, and they have twisted 115 double plays.

Lorenzen has taken the hill for 723 innings and has racked up 601 K's during his MLB career. His ERA is 4.12 (331 earned runs allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.326. He has allowed 671 base hits (8.4 hits per nine innings) and has 288 walks. Lorenzen (40-38 record in his career) has earned a FIP of 4.32 while he has gone up against 3,069 batters in the major leagues.

New York has accumulated 210 home runs this year as well as 678 RBIs. They have 219 doubles, while getting a free base 518 times as well as scoring 701 runs. The New York Mets have accounted for a team on-base percentage of .317 in addition to a team batting average of .239 for the year. The Mets have a team slugging % of .408 and they score 4.41 runs per contest (19th in the league). They have struck out on 1,305 occasions (22nd in the league) and have earned a total of 1,259 hits.

The Mets have a team WHIP of 1.364 in addition to having a FIP of 4.48 as a squad this year. They currently have a strikeout to walk ratio of 8.90 (1,369 strikeouts against 588 walks). They rank 12th in the league as a staff in total hits conceded with 1,308. They have allowed 187 homers and they allow 4.63 runs per 9 innings (18th in baseball). The New York pitching staff have given up 715 runs so far this season while having a team ERA of 4.29 (663 earned runs yielded).

New York has had relief pitchers step onto the hill in 52 save chances and they have walked away with 33 saves. They rank 13th in the league holding a save rate of 63.5%, and they have dispatched 519 relievers onto the field so far this season. Their relief pitchers have stepped onto the mound 154 times in high leverage situations in addition to 155 occasions with runners on base. New York relievers have an inherited score percentage of 32.0% out of 231 inherited base runners. Sitting with 138 save situations, the Mets have earned 81 holds and 19 blown saves.

The New York Mets have turned 140 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .985 (19th in MLB). The Mets have 1,371 assists, 87 errors and have 4,170 putouts on the campaign. In their 12,510 innings played, the Mets have a efficiency on defense of 68.9% (17th in baseball).

Thus far in his career, Butto has surrendered 37 hits while he has accumulated 39 strikeouts in 40 innings pitched. Butto (1-3 win-loss record in his career) is the owner of a 4.95 earned run average and has allowed 8.3 hits per nine innings. He has allowed 22 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.500 and having a FIP of 4.3. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.70 and he has faced 177 hitters in his MLB career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Philadelphia (-115)

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