New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction, 3/31/2023 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: New York Mets vs Miami Marlins

Date: Friday, March 31, 2023

Location: loanDepot park in Miami, FL

TV: Bally Sports Florida

Odds/Point Spread: New York (-110) Miami (-110)

The New York Mets (101-61 last year) are en route to loanDepot park on Friday where they will try to beat the Miami Marlins (69-93 last season). The line on this contest has New York at -110 while Miami is opening at -110. The over/under is set at 8. The expected starting pitchers will be David Peterson and Jesus Luzardo.

As a team, the New York Mets put up 4.8 runs per contest, which put them at 5th in the league. They had a total of 772 runs while holding a team OBP of .332. The Mets accumulated 272 two-baggers as a unit and smacked 171 baseballs out of the stadium. They compiled 735 RBI's and 1,422 base knocks last year, and their average at the plate was .259. New York had a slugging percentage of .412 and were called out on strikes 1,217 times, while taking a walk on 510 occasions.

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Mets pitchers gave up 169 home runs and 606 runs in total (4th in MLB). They walked 428 opposing hitters and their FIP came in at 3.51 as a team for the previous season. They accumulated a K/BB ratio of 3.66 and their pitching staff held a collective WHIP of 1.18. The Mets finished with a team earned run average of 3.57 in the previous season (7th in baseball), and the staff rung up 1,565 hitters.

Mets pitchers entered the game with players on base 138 times in addition to having 125 outings in high leverage situations. The relief pitchers had 77 holds over the course of the prior season (20th in baseball). The Mets relievers recorded a save percentage of 73.2% and stepped onto the hill in 135 save situations. They tallied 41 saves in the prior season and missed out on 15 out of their 56 chances to save the game. The bullpen inherited 189 runners during the previous year and 37.0% of those runners crossed home plate. The Mets had dispatched 483 relievers to the mound over the course of last year.

The Mets turned 69.2% of baseballs in play into outs out of their 12,948 innings on the field, which ranked them 19th in baseball. The New York Mets notched a total of 4,316 putouts over the course of the prior season, as well as 1,359 assists and 67 errors. Their fielding percentage finished at .988 which had them ranked 2nd in MLB, and had a total of 128 double plays.

Peterson has pitched in 222 frames and has accounted for 235 punch outs during his pro baseball career. Peterson (15-13 career mark) is the owner of a FIP of 4.18 while he has gone up against 946 batters during his time in the majors. His earned run average is 4.26 (105 ER's allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.324. He has given up 193 base hits (7.8 hits per nine innings) with 101 walks.

The Miami Marlins tallied a team on-base percentage of .294 and a batting average of .230 last year. They were called out on strikes on 1,429 occasions (9th in MLB) and tallied 1,241 base knocks. Miami had a total of 144 home runs in the prior season to go along with 554 runs batted in. The Marlins had a team slugging % of .363 and they were scoring 3.62 runs per contest (28th in baseball). They tallied 248 doubles, while getting a free base 436 times as well as putting up 586 runs.

The Miami pitching staff conceded 676 runs during the previous year while having a team ERA of 3.86 (617 earned runs given up). They conceded 173 homers and they conceded 4.23 runs per 9 innings (12th in MLB). The Marlins had a team WHIP of 1.268 and had a FIP of 3.90 as a team in the previous season. Their strikeout to walk ratio came in at 2.81 (1,437 strikeouts vs 511 free passes). They finished at 12th in MLB as a staff in total hits relinquished with 1,311.

Miami relievers held an inherited score rate of 37.4% of 198 inherited runners. Their relief pitchers came in 169 times in high leverage situations and also on 136 occasions with base runners. With 150 save situations, the Marlins compiled 75 holds and 31 blown saves. They were sitting at 25th in MLB with a save percentage of 56.9%, and they dispatched 532 relief pitchers to the mound last year. Miami called on relievers to step onto the hill in 72 save opportunities and they tallied 41 saves.

In 12,936 innings on the diamond, the Marlins held a defensive efficiency of 69.4% (17th in the majors). Miami Marlins twisted 143 double plays and notched a fielding percentage of .988 (3rd in baseball). The Marlins racked up 1,460 assists, 69 errors and had a total of 4,312 putouts over the course of the prior season.

So far in his career, Luzardo has given up 238 base knocks while totaling 293 punch outs in 266 innings pitched. He has surrendered 136 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.279 and a FIP of 4.2. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.84 and he has faced 1,131 opposing batters thus far in his career. Luzardo (13-18 win-loss mark in his career) has a 4.59 ERA while allowing 8.0 hits per nine innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take New York (-110)

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