Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros Prediction, 10/7/2023 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros

Date: Saturday, October 7, 2023

Location: Minute Maid Park in Houston, TX

TV: FS1

Odds/Point Spread: Minnesota (+130) Houston (-155)

The Houston Astros (90-72) host the Minnesota Twins (87-75) at Minute Maid Park on Saturday in Game 1 of the ALDS. The moneyline on this matchup has the Twins at +130 and the Astros are priced at -155. The total is set at 8. The pitchers taking the mound are Joe Ryan and Justin Verlander.

The Twins have recorded 264 two-baggers as a unit and have hit 233 balls out of the stadium. Minnesota is slugging .427 and have struck out 1,654 times, while drawing a walk on 594 occasions. As a squad, the Minnesota Twins are putting up 4.8 runs per game, which ranks them 10th in MLB. They have recorded 745 runs batted in as well as 1,335 hits on the year, and their batting average is at .243. They have racked up 778 runs scored while holding a team OBP of .326.

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The Twins are sitting with a team earned run average of 3.87 for the season (6th in MLB), and their staff has rung up 1,560 batters. Twins pitchers have allowed 194 home runs and also 659 runs (3rd in the league). Their pitching staff has walked 443 opposing hitters and their FIP sits at 3.89 as a squad so far this season. Minnesota has conceded 1,294 hits (8.0 per 9 innings) and 624 earned runs. They have a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.52 and the pitching staff holds a WHIP of 1.20.

The Twins relief pitchers have accumulated a save rate of 57.6% and has stepped onto the mound in 147 save situations. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 160 base runners for the season and 28.1% of those runners ended up scoring. Twins pitchers have entered the game with runners on 118 times as well as having 186 appearances in high leverage situations. The Twins have sent 490 relievers to the mound for the season. The relievers have a total of 79 holds so far this year (21st in the league). They have compiled 38 saves for the season and have blown 28 of 66 save chances.

The Twins have transformed 69.7% of balls hit into play into outs out of 13,062 innings, which has them sitting 9th in baseball. The Minnesota Twins are sitting with 4,354 putouts this year, in addition to 1,286 assists and 66 errors. Their fielding rate is currently at .988 which has them ranked 4th in the majors, and have a total of 116 double plays.

Ryan has taken the hill for 335 innings and has tallied 378 punch outs during his pro baseball career. His earned run average is 4.05 (151 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.109. He has conceded 286 base knocks (7.7 hits per 9 innings) and has 86 walks. Ryan (26-19 win-loss mark in his career) holds a FIP of 4.02 while he has gone up against 1,376 opposing batters in the major leagues.

The Astros have a team slugging percentage of .437 and they earn 5.10 runs per game (5th in MLB). They have put up 280 two-baggers, while taking a walk 550 times as well as racking up 827 runs. Houston has knocked in 222 HRs this season to go along with 799 runs batted in. They have struck out on 1,241 occasions (28th in the league) and have totaled 1,441 base hits. The Houston Astros have accounted for a team on-base percentage of .331 as well as a team batting average of .259 this year.

The Astros are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.279 with a FIP of 4.31 as a squad on the season. They have earned a K/BB ratio of 9.10 (1,460 strikeouts against 537 bases on balls). They come in at 8th in the league as a pitching staff in total hits surrendered with 1,312. They have given up 201 homers and they concede 4.35 runs per 9 innings (9th in the league). The Houston pitching staff have allowed 698 runs for the season while holding a team ERA of 3.94 (632 earned runs surrendered).

Houston bullpen pitchers hold an inherited score percentage of 31.1% out of 161 inherited runners. Their relief pitchers have stepped onto the mound 151 times in high leverage situations and also on 97 occasions with runners on base. With 148 save situations, the Astros have earned 86 holds in addition to 19 blown saves. They are currently ranked 6th in baseball with a save percentage of 68.9%, and they have dispatched 513 bullpen pitchers to the hill for the year. Houston has called on bullpen pitchers to step onto the hill in 61 save opportunities and they have converted 42 saves.

The Houston Astros have gotten 144 double plays and have earned a fielding percentage of .986 (14th in MLB). The Astros have recorded 1,346 assists, 81 errors and have earned a total of 4,336 putouts so far this year. Out of their 13,008 innings on the diamond, the Astros have a defensive efficiency of 69.7% (10th in baseball).

In his MLB career, Verlander has allowed 2,793 hits while earning 3,342 punch outs in 3,325 frames. He has conceded 1,197 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.118 and having a FIP of 3.4. His strikeout to walk ratio is 3.61 and he has gone up against 13,549 hitters so far in his MLB career. Verlander (257-141 win-loss record in his career) has a 3.24 ERA while surrendering 7.6 hits per 9 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Houston (-155)

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