Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, 3/30/2023 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs

Date: Thursday, March 30, 2023

Location: Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL

TV: Marquee

Odds/Point Spread: Milwaukee (-120) Chicago (+100)

The Milwaukee Brewers (86-76 last year) are hitting the road to Wrigley Field on Thursday where they will try to defeat the Chicago Cubs (74-88 last season). The odds on this game have the Brewers at -120 and the Cubs are at +100. The over/under has been set at 7.5. The expected starting pitchers are Corbin Burnes and Marcus Stroman.

As a team, the Milwaukee Brewers earned 4.5 runs per game, which had them sitting at 10th in baseball. They earned a total of 725 runs and held an OBP of .315. The Brewers accounted for 251 two-baggers as a unit and knocked 219 balls out of the park. They accrued 703 RBI's as well as 1,271 hits last season, while their average at the plate sat at .235. Milwaukee had a slugging percentage of .409 and were called out on strikes 1,464 times, while taking a walk on 577 occasions.

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The Brewers finished with a team ERA of 3.83 over the course of the prior season (12th in baseball), and their staff rung up 1,530 batters. They walked 521 players from the other team and their FIP came in at 3.92 as a team last year. They had a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.94 and their pitching staff held a WHIP of 1.22. Brewers pitchers relinquished 190 home runs and also 688 total runs (17th in the league).

The Brewers had dispatched 548 relievers to the mound over the course of the prior season. The relief pitchers inherited 191 base runners over the course of last season with 28.3% of those runners crossed home plate. They earned 52 saves for the prior year and missed out on 31 of their 83 save opportunities. The Brewers bullpen earned a save percentage of 62.7% and came into the game in 189 save situations. The relievers earned 106 holds over the course of last year (3rd in the league). Brewers bullpen pitchers entered the contest with runners on 137 times and also had 201 games in high leverage situations.

The Brewers converted 70.4% of balls hit into play into outs out of 13,014 innings, which had them ranked 9th in MLB. The Milwaukee Brewers earned 4,338 putouts over the course of last year, in addition to 1,419 assists and 91 errors. Their fielding rate was at .984 which ranked 20th in baseball, and they twisted 122 double plays.

Burnes has pitched in 515 innings and has earned 670 strikeouts so far in his career. His ERA is 3.21 (184 earned runs allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.049. He has given up 401 base knocks (7.0 hits per 9 innings) and has 140 free passes. Burnes (35-19 career mark) has earned a FIP of 2.85 while facing 2,081 hitters during his time in the majors.

The Chicago Cubs recorded an on-base percentage of .311 and a batting average of .238 for the previous season. They were called out on strikes on 1,448 occasions (6th in MLB) and earned 1,293 base hits. Chicago had a total of 159 HRs in the prior season and 620 runs batted in. The Cubs held a slugging percentage of .387 and they scored 4.06 runs per game (22nd in baseball). They notched 265 two-baggers, while taking a walk 507 times and putting up 657 runs.

The Chicago pitching staff allowed 731 runs last year while having an ERA of 4.00 (642 earned runs surrendered). They gave up 207 long balls and they surrender 4.56 runs per 9 innings (21st in baseball). The Cubs had a WHIP of 1.304 in addition to having a FIP of 4.33 as a staff last season. Their strikeout to walk ratio came in at 2.56 (1,383 strikeouts against 540 walks). They finished at 18th in baseball as a staff in total hits allowed with 1,342.

Chicago called on relief pitchers to step onto the mound in 75 save chances and they walked away with 44 saves. They were ranked 20th in baseball with a save percentage of 58.7%, and they dispatched 528 relievers to the hill last year. Their bullpen pitchers came in 186 times in high leverage situations and also on 165 occasions with runners on. Chicago bullpen pitchers held an inherited score percentage of 28.4% out of their 232 inherited runners. Ending the season with 136 save situations, the Cubs had 57 holds and 31 blown saves.

The Chicago Cubs turned 139 double plays and had a fielding rate of .984 (24th in MLB). The Cubs had 1,453 assists, 96 errors and a tally of 4,331 putouts during the previous year. In their 12,993 innings on the field, the Cubs earned a efficiency on defense of 69.7% (16th in pro baseball).

Stroman (67-67 win-loss record in his career) has a 3.62 earned run average while surrendering 8.8 hits per 9 innings. His K/BB ratio is 3.00 and he has faced 4,848 batters thus far in his career. He has allowed 469 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.252 and being the owner of a FIP of 3.6. In his MLB career, Stroman has conceded 1,137 base knocks while he has tallied 972 strikeouts in 1,167 innings pitched.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Parlay's Pundit's Pick: Take Chicago (+100) and under 7.5 runs

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