Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, 10/4/2023 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies

Date: Wednesday, October 4, 2023

Location: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA

TV: ESPN

Odds/Point Spread: Miami (+138) Philadelphia (-164)

The Philadelphia Phillies (90-72) are welcoming the Miami Marlins (84-77) at Citizens Bank Park on Wednesday in Game 2 of their series. The moneyline on this game has the Marlins at +138 and the Phillies open at -164. The total comes in at 7.5. The pitchers taking the mound are Braxton Garrett and Aaron Nola.

The Marlins have earned 259 two-baggers as a unit and have hit 166 balls out of the stadium. Miami has a slugging % of .405 and have struck out 1,288 times, while drawing a walk on 430 occasions. As a squad, the Miami Marlins are recording 4.1 runs per game, which has them at 26th in MLB. They have 635 RBI's as well as 1,427 hits for the year, while their average at the plate sits at .259. They have a total of 668 runs scored while holding a team on-base percentage of .317.

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The Marlins have an earned run average of 4.22 on the season (16th in MLB), and they have struck out 1,490 hitters. Marlins pitchers have allowed 191 home runs and 723 total runs (17th in the league). Their pitching staff has walked 514 opposing hitters and their FIP sits at 4.13 as a squad so far this season. Miami has conceded 1,341 hits (8.4 per 9 innings) and 673 earned runs. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 2.90 and their pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.29.

The Marlins relievers have a save rate of 58.1% and has entered the game in 166 save situations. The relievers have inherited 232 runners this year and 28.9% of those players earned a run for their team. Marlins relief pitchers have entered the contest with players on base 160 times in addition to having 210 appearances in high leverage situations. The Marlins have dispatched 544 relievers to the mound on the campaign. The relief pitchers have racked up 91 holds so far this season (9th in the league). They have compiled 43 saves for the year and have blown 31 out of their 74 chances to get a save.

The Marlins have converted 68.3% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 12,918 innings on the field, which has them sitting 23rd in professional baseball. The Miami Marlins have notched a total of 4,306 putouts for the season, as well as 1,412 assists and 97 errors. Their fielding rate is holding at .983 which has them ranked 24th in MLB, and have accumulated 144 double plays.

Garrett has taken the mound for 289 innings and has tallied 286 punch outs in his career. Garrett (14-17 career win-loss mark) holds a FIP of 3.84 and he has faced 1,225 opposing batters in the major leagues. His earned run average is 3.86 (124 earned runs allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.272. He has surrendered 290 hits (9.0 hits per 9 innings) and has 78 walks.

The Phillies hold a slugging percentage of .438 and they score 4.91 runs per outing (8th in MLB). They have put up 291 two-baggers, while taking a walk 539 times and notching 796 runs. Philadelphia has 220 long balls on the campaign and 771 RBIs. They have been rung up on 1,481 occasions (8th in the league) and have recorded 1,417 base hits. The Philadelphia Phillies have a team on-base percentage of .327 and a team batting average of .256 so far this year.

The Phillies are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.239 and have a FIP of 4.00 as a team on the campaign. They are currently ranked 9th in baseball as a staff in total hits conceded with 1,317. The Philadelphia pitching staff have allowed 715 runs on the season while holding an ERA of 4.03 (645 earned runs allowed). Their strikeout to walk ratio is 9.10 (1,454 strikeouts vs 470 bases on balls). They have given up 185 long balls and they yield 4.46 runs per 9 innings (12th in MLB).

With 158 save situations, the Phillies have 87 holds in addition to 26 blown saves. Philadelphia has called on relief pitchers to step onto the mound in 71 save opportunities and they have walked away with 45 saves. Their relievers have come in 181 times in high leverage situations and also on 131 occasions with base runners. Philadelphia relievers have an inherited score rate of 34.1% out of 182 inherited runners. They rank 14th in the league holding a save percentage of 63.4%, and they have dispatched 523 bullpen pitchers to the hill on the year.

Out of their 12,981 innings on the field, the Phillies hold a defensive efficiency of 69.5% (13th in pro baseball). The Philadelphia Phillies have gotten 117 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .984 (21st in the majors). The Phillies have racked up 1,385 assists, 92 errors and have accumulated 4,327 putouts for the year.

Thus far in his career, Nola has given up 1,234 base hits and he has 1,582 K's in 1,422 frames. Nola (90-71 career record) is the owner of a 3.72 ERA while allowing 7.8 hits per nine innings. He has surrendered a total of 588 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.129 and being the owner of a FIP of 3.4. He has a K/BB ratio of 4.26 and he has faced 5,815 hitters so far in his MLB career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Parlay's Pundit's Pick: Take Philadelphia (-164) and under 7.5 runs

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