Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction, 9/30/2023 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Date: Saturday, September 30, 2023

Location: Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ

TV: Bally Sports Arizona

Odds/Point Spread: Houston (+116) Arizona (-136)

Chase Field is the site where the Arizona Diamondbacks (84-75) will meet the Houston Astros (87-72) on Saturday. The moneyline on this matchup has the Astros at +116 while the Diamondbacks are coming in at -136. The over/under has been set at 9. The expected starting pitchers will be Justin Verlander and Merrill Kelly.

Houston is slugging .438 and have been called out on strikes 1,214 times, while being walked on 544 occasions. They have recorded 790 RBI's in addition to 1,418 hits so far this season, while their team batting average is at .259. The Astros have hit 275 two-baggers as a team and have knocked 220 baseballs out of the park. They have racked up 816 runs scored and have an OBP of .332. As a team, the Houston Astros are notching 5.1 runs per game, which has them at 5th in MLB.

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The Astros have compiled a team earned run average of 4.00 so far this year (10th in baseball), and the staff has rung up 1,442 hitters. Astros pitchers have surrendered 201 home runs and 696 runs in total (12th in the league). They have walked 524 opposing batters and their FIP is 4.33 as a unit on the campaign. Houston has allowed 1,297 base knocks (8.2 per 9 innings) in addition to 630 earned runs. They have a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.75 and the pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.28.

Astros bullpen pitchers have entered the contest with players on base 96 times as well as having 144 appearances in high leverage situations. The bullpen have tallied 81 holds over the course of the season (16th in the league). The Astros relief pitchers have recorded a save percentage of 67.8% and has stepped onto the mound in 141 save situations. They have earned 40 saves on the season and have blown 19 of their 59 save opportunities. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 158 runners on the season and 31.6% of those runners crossed home plate. The Astros have dispatched 503 relief pitchers to the hill for the year.

The Astros have converted 69.5% of balls in play into outs out of their 12,765 innings on the field, which has them ranked 13th in professional baseball. The Houston Astros have earned a total of 4,255 putouts so far this season, in addition to 1,312 assists and 80 errors. Their fielding percentage sits at .986 which has them ranked 15th in professional baseball, and they have twisted 141 double plays.

Verlander (256-141 career win-loss mark) has a FIP of 3.38 and he has faced 13,529 batters during his time in the major leagues. He has surrendered 2,791 hits (7.6 hits per 9 innings) and has had 922 walks. His earned run average is 3.24 (1,197 earned runs allowed) and his WHIP is 1.118. Verlander has taken the mound for 3,320 innings and has earned 3,337 punch outs in his MLB career.

Arizona has tallied 166 HRs for the year and 704 RBIs. They have recorded 270 two-baggers, while taking a walk 527 times and scoring 744 runs. The Arizona Diamondbacks have recorded a team OBP of .323 in addition to a team batting average of .251 so far this season. The Diamondbacks hold a team slugging percentage of .412 and they score 4.68 runs per contest (13th in MLB). They have been rung up on 1,229 occasions (27th in the league) and have 1,344 base knocks.

The Diamondbacks hold a team WHIP of 1.329 and are the owners of a FIP of 4.38 as a staff this season. Their K/BB ratio sits at 8.50 (1,324 strikeouts vs 519 free passes). They are currently ranked 20th in baseball as a staff in total hits conceded with 1,352. They have allowed 195 dingers and they allow 4.79 runs per 9 innings (20th in baseball). The Arizona pitching staff have conceded 750 runs on the season and come in with a team ERA of 4.51 (705 earned runs given up).

Sitting with 149 save situations, the Diamondbacks have accrued 76 holds in addition to 27 blown saves. Arizona has had bullpen pitchers step onto the mound in 71 save opportunities and they have walked away with 44 saves. Their relief pitchers have taken the field 154 times in high leverage situations and also on 162 occasions with runners on base. Arizona bullpen pitchers have an inherited score rate of 30.3% out of their 231 inherited runners. They sit at 15th in baseball holding a save rate of 62.0%, and they have sent 536 bullpen pitchers onto the field so far this year.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have turned 131 double plays and have notched a fielding percentage of .990 (1st in MLB). The Diamondbacks have 1,374 assists, 55 errors and have a tally of 4,225 putouts this year. In 12,675 innings on the field, the Diamondbacks have a efficiency on defense of 69.5% (15th in baseball).

So far in his MLB career, Kelly has given up 678 base hits while earning 676 punch outs in 743 innings pitched. Kelly (48-42 career win-loss record) has earned a 3.82 ERA and has conceded 8.2 hits per 9 innings. He has given up 316 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.222 and having a FIP of 4.0. His K/BB ratio is 2.93 and he has faced 3,069 hitters during his pro baseball career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Houston (+116)

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