Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Prediction, 9/17/2023 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins

Date: Sunday, September 17, 2023

Location: loanDepot park in Miami, FL

TV: Bally Sports Florida

Odds/Point Spread: Atlanta (-135) Miami (+114)

The Miami Marlins (76-72) are hosting the Atlanta Braves (96-51) at loanDepot park on Sunday. The moneyline on this matchup has the Braves at -135 and the Marlins are opening at +114. The betting total comes in at 8. The starting pitchers are Charlie Morton and Jesus Luzardo.

Atlanta is slugging .501 and have been called out on strikes 1,163 times, while drawing a walk on 490 occasions. They have tallied 830 RBI's and 1,393 base knocks so far this year, while their team batting average is sitting at .275. The Braves have tallied 256 doubles as a squad and have hit 283 balls out of the stadium. They have earned a total of 858 runs scored and hold an OBP of .343. As a team, the Atlanta Braves are notching 5.8 runs per game, which is 1st in baseball.

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The Braves are sitting with a team earned run average of 3.94 for the season (7th in the league), and their staff has struck out 1,396 batters. Braves pitchers have conceded 161 home runs and also 619 runs (7th in baseball). They have walked 469 opposing batters and their FIP sits at 3.95 as a team so far this season. Atlanta has given up 1,194 base hits (8.2 per 9 innings) as well as 572 earned runs. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 2.98 and their pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.27.

Braves relief pitchers have entered the game with runners on 117 times in addition to having 156 appearances in high leverage situations. The relievers have racked up 94 holds on the year (3rd in the league). The Braves relief pitchers have earned a save rate of 67.6% and has entered the game in 166 save situations. They have earned 48 saves over the course of the season and have blown 23 of 71 save opportunities. The relief pitchers have inherited 171 runners on the campaign with 30.4% of them crossed the plate. The Braves have sent 482 relief pitchers to the hill on the season.

The Atlanta Braves have amassed 3,918 putouts over the course of the season, as well as 1,191 assists and 75 errors. Their fielding rate is holding steady at .986 which ranks 16th in pro baseball, and have 125 double plays. The Braves have turned 68.5% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 11,754 innings on the diamond, which has them sitting 21st in professional baseball.

Morton has pitched in 1,954 innings and has accumulated 1,874 punch outs during his MLB career. His earned run average is 3.98 (865 earned runs allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.303. He has surrendered 1,831 base knocks (8.4 hits per 9 innings) with 715 free passes. Morton (130-112 career record) has a FIP of 3.77 while going up against 8,370 hitters during his time in the majors.

The Miami Marlins have tallied an on-base percentage of .312 as well as a batting average of .257 over the course of the season. They have struck out on 1,173 occasions (25th in the league) and have notched a total of 1,292 base hits. Miami has accumulated 149 long balls for the year to go along with 573 runs batted in. The Marlins have a team slugging percentage of .402 and they average 4.07 runs per outing (28th in MLB). They have recorded 238 two-baggers, while getting a free base 373 times as well as putting up 602 runs.

The Marlins hold a team WHIP of 1.286 in addition to having a FIP of 4.11 as a unit so far this year. Their K/BB ratio is 9.40 (1,365 strikeouts against 474 free passes). They sit at 16th in MLB as a staff in total hits conceded with 1,214. They have conceded 172 home runs and they allow 4.52 runs per 9 innings (17th in the league). The Miami pitching staff have conceded 659 runs over the course of the season while having an ERA of 4.20 (613 earned runs relinquished).

With 153 save situations, the Marlins have recorded 86 holds and also 27 blown saves. Miami has called on bullpen pitchers to step onto the hill in 66 save chances and they have come away with 39 saves. Their relief pitchers have stepped onto the mound 186 times in high leverage situations and on 146 occasions with runners on base. Miami relief pitchers hold an inherited score rate of 29.1% out of their 206 inherited runners. They sit at 22nd in the league with a save percentage of 59.1%, and they have dispatched 491 relievers to the mound this year.

The Miami Marlins have gotten 138 double plays and have notched a fielding percentage of .983 (24th in pro baseball). The Marlins have recorded 1,295 assists, 88 errors and have accounted for 3,937 putouts on the season. Out of their 11,811 innings on the field, the Marlins hold a efficiency on defense of 68.4% (22nd in baseball).

Luzardo (22-27 win-loss mark in his career) has a 4.30 earned run average while conceding 8.2 hits per nine innings. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.15 and he has gone up against 1,800 hitters so far in his career. He has given up a total of 204 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.269 and being the owner of a FIP of 4.0. During his MLB career, Luzardo has given up 390 hits while he has accumulated 479 strikeouts in 427 frames.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Parlay's Pundit's Pick: Take Miami (+114) and under 8 runs

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