St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins Prediction, 4/5/2021 MLB Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins

Date: Monday, April 5, 2021

Location: Marlins Park in Miami, FL

TV: Bally Sports Florida

Odds/Point Spread: St. Louis (-125) Miami (-116)

Trevor Rogers and the Miami Marlins (1-2, 4th in NL East) play the St. Louis Cardinals (1-1, 5th in NL Central) at Marlins Park on Monday. The Cardinals open this matchup at -125 while the Marlins are priced at -116. The over/under has been set at 8.5. The expected starting pitchers will be Daniel Ponce de Leon and Trevor Rogers.

St. Louis had a slugging rate of .371 and were called out on strikes 477 times last year, while drawing a walk on 205 occasions. They accounted for 231 runs batted in and 410 base knocks during the previous year, while their batting average came in at .234. The Cardinals tallied 73 doubles as a team and hit 51 balls out of the stadium. They were sitting with 240 runs and held an on-base percentage of .323. As a squad, the St. Louis Cardinals scored 4.1 runs per outing, which had them at 24th in the league.

Cardinals pitchers surrendered 69 home runs and 229 total runs (26th in the league). They walked 204 opposing batters and their FIP came in at 4.58 as a team for the previous season. Their K/BB ratio was 2.27 and their pitching staff held a WHIP of 1.23. The Cardinals had a team ERA of 3.90 during the previous year (9th in MLB), and the staff rung up 464 hitters. The Cardinals had dispatched 177 relief pitchers to the hill in the prior season. The relievers inherited 97 runners over the course of last year and 26.8% of those players crossed the plate. They accumulated 13 saves over the course of last season and did not convert 5 out of their 18 save chances. The Cardinals relief pitchers earned a save rate of 72.2% and stepped onto the hill in 43 save situations. The relief pitchers racked up 22 holds during the previous year (25th in the league). Cardinals bullpen pitchers stepped onto the hill with runners on base in 62 outings in addition to 44 contests with high leverage.

Daniel Ponce de Leon surrendered 23 hits in 32.2 innings pitched over the course of last year. His earned run average was 4.96 and he fanned 45 hitters. He allowed 18 earned runs over the course of last season with a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.3. He allowed 6.3 hits per nine innings and he held a WHIP of 1.316. Ponce de Leon held a FIP of 5.64 and he earned an ERA+ of 86. Ponce de Leon has taken the mound for 114 innings and has earned 128 strikeouts thus far in his career. Ponce de Leon (2-7 career mark) sits with a FIP of 4.45 while he has faced 478 batters in the major leagues. His ERA is 3.78 (48 earned runs allowed) and his WHIP is 1.242. He has allowed 83 hits (6.5 hits per 9 innings) with 59 free passes.

The Miami Marlins accounted for an OBP of .319 and a batting average of .244 for the previous season. They struck out on 537 occasions (11th in the league) and recorded 472 base hits. Miami was sitting with 60 home runs during the previous year in addition to 247 runs batted in. The Marlins had a SLG% of .384 and they averaged 4.38 runs per game (21st in MLB). They hit 82 doubles, while getting a free base 191 times as well as notching 263 runs.

The Marlins had a WHIP of 1.452 and had a FIP of 5.02 as a squad in the previous season. Their strikeout to walk ratio sat at 2.00 (451 strikeouts vs 226 free passes). They were ranked 9th in baseball as a pitching staff in total hits relinquished with 506. They yielded 82 long balls and they conceded 5.43 runs per 9 innings (24th in MLB). The Miami pitching staff allowed 304 runs in the prior season while having a team ERA of 4.86 (272 earned runs surrendered). Miami relievers held an inherited score percentage of 31.0% of 115 inherited base runners. Their relief pitchers took the field in 53 games with high leverage in addition to 71 outings with runners on. Ending the season with 23 opportunities for a save, the Marlins earned 28 holds in addition to 5 blown saves. They ranked 3rd in baseball with a save rate of 78.3%, and they sent 215 relievers to the hill last season. Miami had bullpen pitchers enter the game in 56 save situations and they tallied 18 saves.

Rogers gave up 32 base hits while he conceded 19 ER's (6.11 ERA). His WHIP was 1.61 and he had a FIP of 4.33 throughout last season. He pitched in 28.0 innings last year while surrendering 10.3 hits per 9 innings. Rogers had a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.0 with 39 total K's and he held an ERA+ of 76. 

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Miami (-116)

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