Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, 9/28/2021 MLB Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves

Date: Tuesday, September 28, 2021

Location: Truist Park in Cumberland, GA

TV: Bally Sports South

Odds/Point Spread: Philadelphia (+100) Atlanta (-132)

Zack Wheeler and the Philadelphia Phillies (81-75, 2nd in NL East) head to Truist Park on Tuesday where they'll meet the Atlanta Braves (83-72, 1st in NL East). The moneyline on this matchup has the Phillies coming in at +100 and the Braves are at -132. The total is set at 7.5. The pitchers taking the mound are Zack Wheeler and Charlie Morton.

As a unit, the Philadelphia Phillies are notching 4.6 runs per game, which has them at 12th in the league. They have a total of 718 runs while having a team OBP of .320. The Phillies have accounted for 255 two-baggers as a unit and have knocked 192 baseballs out of the park. They have 684 runs batted in and 1,252 hits on the year, while their batting average is .242. Philadelphia owns a slugging percentage of .412 and have struck out 1,339 times, while taking a walk on 552 occasions.

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The Phillies have an earned run average of 4.41 on the campaign (20th in baseball), and the staff has struck out 1,426 batters. Their pitching staff has walked 491 opposing batters and their FIP is 4.17 as a squad on the campaign. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 2.90 and the pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.29. Phillies pitchers have surrendered 196 home runs and also 723 total runs (17th in the league).

Phillies relief pitchers have entered the game with opponents on base 141 times in addition to having 165 appearances in high leverage situations. The relief pitchers have recorded 70 holds so far this season (21st in MLB). The Phillies relievers have a save rate of 51.4% and stepped onto the hill in 146 save situations. They have earned 36 saves over the course of the season and have not converted 34 out of their 70 chances to save the game. The relief pitchers have inherited 219 base runners so far this season and 40.6% of those players crossed the plate. The Phillies have sent 507 relief pitchers to the mound this season.

The Phillies have converted 68.7% of balls in play into outs in their 12,327 innings on the field, which has them ranked 25th in professional baseball. The Philadelphia Phillies have amassed 4,109 putouts on the campaign, as well as 1,388 assists and 90 errors. Their fielding rate is holding at .984 which ranks 21st in pro baseball, and have earned 1,012 double plays.

Wheeler has taken the ball for 1,026 innings and is sitting with 1,019 punch outs during his career. His earned run average is 3.52 (401 earned runs allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.230. He has surrendered 932 hits (8.2 hits per nine innings) with 331 walks. Wheeler (62-49 career record) is the owner of a FIP of 3.46 while he has faced 4,294 opposing hitters during his time in the majors.

Atlanta has recorded 232 home runs on the campaign and 734 RBIs. They have tallied 259 doubles, while taking a walk 533 times as well as recording 762 runs. The Atlanta Braves have accumulated an OBP of .320 as well as a batting average of .244 for the year. The Braves hold a team slugging percentage of .436 and they have an average of 4.92 runs per outing (7th in MLB). They have struck out on 1,397 instances (10th in baseball) and have earned 1,262 base hits.

The Braves have a team WHIP of 1.256 in addition to having a FIP of 4.10 as a squad over the course of the season. They have a ranking of 8th in MLB as a staff in total hits allowed with 1,201. The Atlanta pitching staff have given up 641 runs for the season and come in with a team ERA of 3.95 (595 earned runs conceded). Their K/BB ratio comes in at 2.73 (1,369 strikeouts against 502 bases on balls). They have given up 178 HR's and they allow 4.25 runs per 9 innings (10th in baseball).

Atlanta has called on relievers to step onto the hill in 63 save chances and they have walked away with 37 saves. They sit at 20th in the league with a save percentage of 58.7%, and they have dispatched 560 bullpen pitchers onto the diamond so far this season. Their bullpen pitchers have stepped onto the hill 216 times in high leverage situations and on 127 occasions with runners on. Atlanta bullpen pitchers have an inherited score rate of 33.3% of 183 inherited runners. Sitting with 173 save situations, the Braves have recorded 109 holds and 26 blown saves.

The Atlanta Braves have twisted 99 double plays and have accounted for a fielding rate of .988 (2nd in professional baseball). The Braves have racked up 1,420 assists, 67 errors and have amassed 4,070 putouts this year. In 12,210 innings played, the Braves hold a defensive efficiency of 70.6% (6th in pro baseball).

So far in his career, Morton has allowed 1,534 base knocks and he has 1,479 K's in 1,615 innings. He has allowed a total of 722 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.305 and a FIP of 3.7. His strikeout to walk ratio is 2.58 and he has faced 6,921 opposing hitters so far in his career. Morton (106-95 record in his career) has a 4.02 earned run average while conceding 8.5 hits per nine innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Philadelphia (+100)

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