New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction, 9/25/2021 MLB Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers

Date: Saturday, September 25, 2021

Location: American Family Field in Milwaukee, WI

TV: Bally Sports Wisconsin

Odds/Point Spread: New York (+117) Milwaukee (-140)

Eric Lauer and the Milwaukee Brewers (91-62, 1st in NL Central) host the New York Mets (73-79, 3rd in NL East) at American Family Field on Saturday. The moneyline on this matchup has the Mets priced at +117 and the Brewers are at -140. The over/under has been set at 9. The pitchers expected to start will be Rich Hill and Eric Lauer.

As a team, the New York Mets are scoring 4.0 runs per game, which puts them at 28th in MLB. They are sitting with 600 runs scored and hold an OBP of .316. The Mets have compiled 213 two-baggers as a unit and have knocked 167 balls out of the park. They have accumulated 569 runs batted in and 1,171 base knocks for the season, while their batting average sits at .239. New York owns a slugging percentage of .391 and have struck out 1,303 times, while drawing a walk on 470 occasions.

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Mets pitchers have given up 178 home runs and 630 total runs (8th in MLB). They have walked 439 opposing batters and their FIP comes in at 4.01 as a unit over the course of the season. They have accrued a K/BB ratio of 3.11 and the pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.23. The Mets have a team ERA of 3.90 so far this year (10th in the league), and they have struck out 1,364 batters.

Mets bullpen pitchers have entered the game with players on base 128 times as well as having 167 appearances in high leverage situations. The bullpen have a total of 70 holds on the season (18th in the league). The Mets relief pitchers have a save rate of 58.2% and has come into the game in 139 save situations. They have 39 saves on the campaign and have not converted 28 of their 67 save opportunities. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 189 base runners for the season with 32.8% of those players crossed home plate. The Mets have sent 508 relievers to the mound on the campaign.

The New York Mets have 3,889 putouts this season, in addition to 1,237 assists and 90 errors. Their fielding rate is holding at .983 which ranks 24th in MLB, and they have turned 994 double plays. The Mets have converted 69.5% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 11,667 innings on the diamond, which has them sitting 17th in MLB.

Hill has taken the ball for 1,124 innings and has accumulated 1,173 punch outs in his career. Hill (73-51 mark in his career) is the owner of a FIP of 3.99 and he has faced 4,708 opposing hitters in the major leagues. His earned run average is 3.80 (475 earned runs allowed) and his WHIP is 1.218. He has surrendered 932 base hits (7.5 hits per 9 innings) and has had 438 free passes.

The Brewers have a slugging percentage of .397 and they average 4.59 runs per contest (11th in baseball). They have hit 240 two-baggers, while walking 551 times as well as scoring 697 runs. Milwaukee has accounted for 183 HRs so far this year to go along with 661 runs batted in. They have been rung up on 1,373 occasions (9th in MLB) and have tallied 1,176 base knocks. The Milwaukee Brewers are sitting with a team OBP of .318 and a team batting average of .234 so far this season.

The Milwaukee pitching staff have conceded 573 runs this season while having an ERA of 3.40 (510 earned runs allowed). They have surrendered 152 home runs and they allow 3.82 runs per 9 innings (3rd in MLB). The Brewers are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.179 and have a FIP of 3.64 as a team on the campaign. Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 3.01 (1,538 strikeouts against 511 bases on balls). They have a ranking of 2nd in the league as a pitching staff in total hits given up with 1,082.

Milwaukee has called on relief pitchers to step onto the hill in 69 save chances and they have earned 43 saves. They are ranked 13th in baseball with a save percentage of 62.3%, and they have dispatched 502 bullpen pitchers to the hill so far this year. Their relief pitchers have come in 182 times in high leverage situations and on 100 occasions with runners on. Milwaukee relievers have an inherited score percentage of 34.5% out of 142 inherited base runners. With 147 save situations, the Brewers have amassed 76 holds in addition to 26 blown saves.

In their 12,159 innings played, the Brewers have earned a defensive efficiency of 70.6% (5th in the majors). The Milwaukee Brewers have turned 95 double plays and hold a fielding percentage of .983 (22nd in MLB). The Brewers have racked up 1,256 assists, 91 errors and have notched a total of 4,053 putouts this year.

In his career, Lauer has surrendered 387 base hits while earning 355 strikeouts in 379 innings pitched. Lauer (20-24 mark in his career) holds a 4.27 ERA while surrendering 9.2 hits per nine innings. He has allowed 180 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.396 and having a FIP of 4.3. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.48 and he has gone up against 1,657 opposing batters in his pro baseball career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take New York (+117)

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