Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Prediction, 9/30/2021 MLB Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Miami Marlins vs New York Mets

Date: Thursday, September 30, 2021

Location: Citi Field in Queens, NY

TV: SNY

Odds/Point Spread: Miami (+190) New York (-256)

Citi Field is the venue where Tylor Megill and the New York Mets (75-82, 3rd in NL East) will play the Miami Marlins (64-93, 5th in NL East) on Thursday. The Mets open this matchup at -256 while the Marlins are priced at +190. The O/U opens at 7. The starting pitchers will be Edward Cabrera and Tylor Megill.

Miami has a slugging rate of .374 and have struck out 1,509 times, while being walked on 433 occasions. They have 582 runs batted in and 1,213 base knocks for the season, and their average at the plate is at .233. The Marlins have accounted for 223 doubles as a squad and have smacked 155 balls out of the park. They have notched a total of 609 runs scored and have an on-base percentage of .299. As a team, the Miami Marlins are knocking in 3.9 runs per contest, which has them sitting at 28th in MLB.

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The Marlins have a team ERA of 3.93 so far this season (11th in baseball), and their staff has struck out 1,327 batters. Their K/BB ratio is 2.57 and their pitching staff has a team WHIP of 1.28. Marlins pitchers have relinquished 154 home runs in addition to 677 total runs (14th in baseball). Their pitching staff has walked 517 opposing batters and their FIP is 3.99 as a squad this year.

The Marlins relievers have recorded a save rate of 54.5% and has entered the game in 122 save situations. The relievers have inherited 198 base runners this season with 36.4% of those players ended up crossing the plate. Marlins pitchers have gone to the mound with opponents on base 130 times in addition to having 181 appearances in high leverage situations. The Marlins have sent 574 relief pitchers to the hill over the course of the season. The relievers have accumulated 67 holds for the season (24th in the league). They have 30 saves this year and have not converted 25 out of their 55 chances to save the game.

The Miami Marlins have 4,113 putouts at this point in the season, in addition to 1,401 assists and 120 errors. Their fielding rate is holding steady at .979 which is 30th in pro baseball, and they have twisted 1,073 double plays. The Marlins have converted 69.0% of balls in play into outs out of 12,339 innings, which has them sitting at 21st in the majors.

Cabrera (0-3 record in his career) is the owner of a FIP of 6.76 while facing 107 hitters during his time in the major leagues. He has given up 22 base hits (8.5 hits per nine innings) and has 17 walks. His earned run average is 5.79 (15 earned runs allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.671. Cabrera has taken the ball for 23 frames and has earned 22 punch outs in his pro baseball career.

The Mets have a SLG% of .388 and they score 3.90 runs per contest (27th in MLB). They have put up 218 two-baggers, while walking 481 times and putting up 613 runs. New York has 169 home runs for the season as well as 581 RBIs. They have been called out on strikes on 1,353 occasions (16th in baseball) and have a total of 1,201 base hits. The New York Mets have accumulated a team OBP of .314 as well as a batting average of .238 over the course of the season.

The New York pitching staff have surrendered 648 runs for the season while having an ERA of 3.89 (578 earned runs relinquished). They have surrendered 184 HR's and they relinquish 4.36 runs per 9 innings (13th in baseball). The Mets have a team WHIP of 1.232 in addition to having a FIP of 4.02 as a unit so far this season. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 3.06 (1,407 strikeouts vs 460 bases on balls). They are sitting at 4th in the league as a staff in total hits surrendered with 1,186.

New York has called on bullpen pitchers to step onto the mound in 68 save chances and they have earned 40 saves. They rank 21st in the league with a save rate of 58.8%, and they have dispatched 527 relievers to the hill so far this year. Their bullpen pitchers have come in 172 times in high leverage situations and also on 131 occasions with runners on base. New York relief pitchers have an inherited score rate of 33.5% out of their 191 inherited base runners. With 141 save situations, the Mets have 71 holds in addition to 28 blown saves.

The New York Mets have twisted 118 double plays and have a fielding rate of .983 (24th in the majors). The Mets have recorded 1,273 assists, 93 errors and are sitting with 4,009 putouts for the season. In 12,027 innings played, the Mets have earned a defensive efficiency of 69.6% (16th in pro baseball).

During his pro baseball career, Megill has conceded 87 base knocks while tallying 93 K's in 84 innings. Megill (3-6 record in his career) is the owner of a 4.78 ERA while giving up 9.2 hits per nine innings. He has given up 45 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.335 and being the owner of a FIP of 4.9. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.58 and he has faced 362 batters in his MLB career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game ATS?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take New York (-256)

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