Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, 10/1/2020 MLB Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs

Date: Thursday, October 1, 2020

Location: Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL

TV: ABC

Odds/Point Spread: Marlins (+168) Cubs (-178)

Jesus Aguilar and the Miami Marlins (31-29, 2nd in NL East) head to Wrigley Field on Thursday where they'll take on the Chicago Cubs (34-26, 1st in NL Central) in Game 2 of their NL Wild Card series. The Marlins lead the series 1-0 after earning a 5-1 win in Game 1. The odds on this game have the Marlins priced at +168 and the Cubs are at -178. The O/U is set at 7.5. The expected starting pitchers are Sixto Sanchez and Yu Darvish.

Key Miami Marlins Injuries

9/28/2020 Starling Marte CF Ear Out for the season
9/27/2020 Jordan Holloway RP Undisclosed Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/27/2020 Pat Venditte RP Oblique Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/27/2020 Jeff Brigham RP Undisclosed Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/27/2020 Brian Moran RP Kneecap Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/27/2020 Jose Urena SP Forearm Out for the season
9/24/2020 Josh Smith RP Finger Expected to be out until at least Oct 6
9/23/2020 Drew Steckenrider RP Triceps Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/15/2020 Isan Diaz 2B Groin Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/13/2020 Brandon Leibrandt RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Nov 1
9/10/2020 Francisco Cervelli C Concussion Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/7/2020 Harold Ramirez RF Hamstring Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/5/2020 Elieser Hernandez SP Lat Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
8/28/2020 Logan Forsythe 2B Oblique Expected to be out until at least Oct 12
8/18/2020 Mike Morin RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Oct 1

Key Chicago Cubs Injuries

9/29/2020 Ildemaro Vargas 2B Hamstring Expected to be out until at least Sep 30
9/29/2020 Tyler Chatwood SP Forearm Expected to be out until at least Sep 30
9/28/2020 Manuel Rodriguez RP Biceps Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/27/2020 Daniel Descalso 2B Ankle Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/27/2020 James Norwood RP Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/27/2020 Brad Wieck RP Hamstring Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/20/2020 Rowan Wick RP Oblique Expected to be out until at least Oct 15

Useful Pitching Statistics

The Marlins have a 31-29 overall record this season. Sanchez has thrown 39 frames and has accumulated 33 punchouts. His ERA is 3.46 (15 earned runs allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.205. He has surrendered 36 base hits (8.3 hits per 9 innings) and has 11 walks. Sanchez (3-2 mark) sits with a FIP of 3.51 while he has gone up against 158 opposing hitters in the major leagues. The bullpen has an earned run average of 5.50 and they have given up 239 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .231 against the bullpen and they've struck out 187 hitters and walked 118 batters. As a team, Miami allows 9 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.1 batters per nine innings. They are 21st in the league in team earned run average at 4.86. The Marlins pitchers collectively have given up 506 base hits and 272 earned runs. They have allowed 82 home runs this season, ranking them 8th in the league. Miami as a pitching staff has walked 226 batters and struck out 451. They have walked 4 men per 9 innings while striking out 8.1 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.45 and their FIP as a unit is 5.02.

Related: Get MLB predictions on all of today's games

Hitting Statistics

As a team Miami is hitting .244, good for 17th in the league. The Marlins hold a .384 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .319, which is good for 17th in baseball. They rank 19th in MLB with 7.9 hits per game. Jesus Aguilar is hitting .277 with an on-base percentage of .352. He has 52 hits this season in 188 at bats with 34 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .457 and an OPS+ of 120. Miguel Rojas is hitting .304 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .392. He has totaled 38 hits and he has driven in 20 men in 125 at bats. His OPS+ is 141 while his slugging percentage is at .496. The Marlins have 472 hits, including 82 doubles and 60 home runs. Miami has walked 191 times so far this season and they have struck out 537 times as a unit. They have left 396 men on base and have a team OPS of .703. They score 4.38 runs per contest and have scored a total of 263 runs this year.

Useful Pitching Statistics

Chicago has a 34-26 overall mark this year. Darvish (71-56 mark in his career) has earned a 3.47 ERA while conceding 7.3 hits per nine innings. He has a SO/W ratio of 3.50 and he has faced 4,652 opposing hitters so far in his career. In his career, Darvish has allowed 909 hits and he has 1,392 strikeouts in 1,127 innings pitched. He has conceded a total of 434 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.160 and a FIP of 3.5. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.38 and they have given up 159 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .193 against the Cubs bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 229 batters and walked 100 opposing hitters. As a team, Chicago allows 7.8 hits per nine innings while striking out 9.1 batters per nine innings. They are 10th in the league in team earned run average at 3.99. The Cubs pitchers as a team have surrendered 451 base knocks and 230 earned runs this season. They have given up 74 home runs this year, which ranks 17th in Major League Baseball. Chicago as a staff has walked 182 hitters and struck out 523 batters. They give up a walk 3.2 times per 9 innings while they strike out 9.1 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.22 while their FIP as a staff is 4.18.

Hitting Statistics

As a team, they are batting .220, good for 27th in the league. The Cubs hold a .387 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .318, which is good for 18th in baseball. They rank 28th in MLB with 7.0 hits per contest. Jason Heyward comes into this matchup batting .265 with an OBP of .392. He has 39 hits this year along with 22 RBI in 147 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .456 with an OPS+ of 129. Ian Happ is hitting .258 this season and he has an OBP of .361. He has collected 51 hits in 198 at bats while driving in 28 runs. He has an OPS+ of 131 and a slugging percentage of .505. The Cubs as a unit have 422 base hits, including 82 doubles and 74 homers. Chicago has walked 229 times this year and they have struck out on 568 occasions. They have had 406 men left on base and have an OPS of .705. They have scored 4.42 runs per game and totaled 265 runs this season.

Who will win tonight's Marlins/Cubs MLB game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Cubs (-178)

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