Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins Prediction, 9/29/2020 MLB Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins

Date: Tuesday, September 29, 2020

Location: Target Field in Minneapolis, MN

TV: ABC

Odds/Point Spread: Astros (+128) Twins (-138)

Alex Bregman and the Houston Astros (29-31, 2nd in AL West) travel to Target Field on Tuesday where they'll take on the Minnesota Twins (36-24, 1st in AL Central) in an AL Wildcard matchup. The Astros open this matchup at +128 while the Twins are coming in at -138. The over/under opens at 7.5. The expected starting pitchers are Zack Greinke and Kenta Maeda.

Key Houston Astros Injuries

9/25/2020 Josh James RP Undisclosed Expected to be out until at least Oct 5
9/23/2020 Rogelio Armenteros RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/22/2020 Brad Peacock RP Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Oct 1
9/19/2020 Justin Verlander SP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2022
9/19/2020 Roberto Osuna RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Sep 28
9/16/2020 Chris Devenski RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/4/2020 Austin Pruitt RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Apr 1, 2021
8/23/2020 Yordan Alvarez DH Knee Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021

Key Minnesota Twins Injuries

9/27/2020 Josh Donaldson 3B Calf Out for the season
9/26/2020 Byron Buxton CF Head Out for the season
9/22/2020 Jake Odorizzi SP Finger Expected to be out until at least Sep 30
9/13/2020 Brent Rooker RF Forearm Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021

Useful Pitching Statistics

The Astros have a 29-31 overall record this season. Greinke (208-126 win-loss record in his career) sits with a FIP of 3.45 and he has gone up against 12,002 batters in the major leagues. His earned run average is 3.37 (1,100 earned runs allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.158. He has given up 2,728 hits (8.4 hits per nine innings) and has 676 walks. Greinke has taken the ball for 2,939 frames and is sitting with 2,689 K's during his MLB career. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.39 and they have given up 204 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .214 against the bullpen and they've struck out 225 hitters and walked 118 batters. As a team, Houston allows 8.1 hits per nine innings while striking out 9 batters per nine innings. They are 13th in the league in team earned run average at 4.31. The Astros pitchers collectively have given up 472 base hits and 251 earned runs. They have allowed 70 home runs this season, ranking them 20th in the league. Houston as a pitching staff has walked 217 batters and struck out 526. They have walked 3.7 men per 9 innings while striking out 9 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.32 and their FIP as a unit is 4.33.

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Hitting Statistics

As a team Houston is hitting .240, good for 20th in the league. The Astros hold a .408 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .312, which is good for 22nd in baseball. They rank 17th in MLB with 8.0 hits per game. Alex Bregman is hitting .242 with an on-base percentage of .350. He has 37 hits this season in 153 at bats with 22 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .451 and an OPS+ of 116. Michael Brantley is hitting .300 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .364. He has totaled 51 hits and he has driven in 22 men in 170 at bats. His OPS+ is 126 while his slugging percentage is at .476. The Astros have 478 hits, including 103 doubles and 69 home runs. Houston has walked 192 times so far this season and they have struck out 440 times as a unit. They have left 382 men on base and have a team OPS of .720. They score 4.65 runs per contest and have scored a total of 279 runs this year.

Useful Pitching Statistics

So far in his pro baseball career, Maeda has allowed 540 hits while he has totaled 721 punchouts in 655 innings pitched. He has given up a total of 273 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.111 and a FIP of 3.7. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.84 and he has faced 2,677 batters during his MLB career. Maeda (53-36 win-loss record in his career) has a 3.75 ERA while conceding 7.4 hits per nine innings. The bullpen has an earned run average of 3.62 and they have given up 213 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .219 against the Twins bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 266 batters and walked 80 opposing hitters. As a team, Minnesota allows 7.9 hits per nine innings while striking out 9.4 batters per nine innings. They are 4th in the league in team earned run average at 3.58. The Twins pitchers as a team have surrendered 448 base knocks and 204 earned runs this season. They have given up 62 home runs this year, which ranks 30th in Major League Baseball. Minnesota as a staff has walked 170 hitters and struck out 535 batters. They give up a walk 3 times per 9 innings while they strike out 9.4 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.20 while their FIP as a staff is 3.79.

Hitting Statistics

As a team, they are batting .242, good for 18th in the league. The Twins hold a .427 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .315, which is good for 20th in baseball. They rank 21st in MLB with 7.8 hits per contest. Nelson Cruz comes into this matchup batting .303 with an OBP of .397. He has 56 hits this year along with 33 RBI in 185 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .595 with an OPS+ of 169. Jorge Polanco is hitting .258 this season and he has an OBP of .304. He has collected 54 hits in 209 at bats while driving in 19 runs. He has an OPS+ of 82 and a slugging percentage of .354. The Twins as a unit have 468 base hits, including 81 doubles and 91 homers. Minnesota has walked 186 times this year and they have struck out on 528 occasions. They have had 372 men left on base and have an OPS of .743. They have scored 4.48 runs per game and totaled 269 runs this season.

Who will win tonight's Astros/Twins MLB game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Astros (+128)

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