Sunday, April 10, 2016

Great American Ball Park

For Updated Odds on This Game Click Here

Probable Pitchers: Jeff Locke vs. Timothy Melville

The Pittsburgh Pirates visit Great American Ball Park on Sunday to play the Cincinnati Reds. The probable starters are Jeff Locke for the Pirates and Timothy Melville for the Reds. The opening line for this matchup has Pittsburgh at -260 and Cincinnati at +237. The over/under was set at 7. The Pirates had a 75-76-12 over/under record last season and a 73-90-0 run line mark, meaning they covered 45% of the time. The Reds were 79-82-0 against the run line and had a 83-73-6 over/under record. They covered the spread 49% of the time.

The Pirates head into this matchup coming off a 98 - 64 season, including 45-36 on the road. Starting pitcher Jeff Locke had a 8 - 11 record with an earned run average of 4.49 and a WHIP of 1.42. He had 129 strikeouts over his 168.1 innings pitched and he also gave up 179 hits over that time period. He allowed 9.6 hits per 9 innings and he had a FIP of 3.95. The bullpen had an earned run average of 2.67 and they gave up 452 base hits on the year. Teams hit .231 against the bullpen while being struck out 462 times and walking 160 times last season. As a team, Pittsburgh allowed 8.4 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.1 batters per nine. They were 2nd in the league in team earned run average at 3.23. The Pirates pitchers collectively gave up 1,392 base hits and 532 earned runs last year. They allowed 110 home runs last season and they allowed 0.7 homers per nine innings as a staff. Pittsburgh as a pitching staff walked 453 batters and struck out 1,338. They walked 2.7 men per 9 innings while striking out 8.1 per 9. They had a team WHIP of 1.24 and their FIP as a unit was 3.36.

As a team, Pittsburgh batted .259, good for 9th in the league while putting together a .261 average away from home. The Pirates held a .394 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .323 which was good for 9th in baseball. They ranked 8th in baseball with 9 hits per game. Andrew McCutchen hit .292 last season and his on-base percentage was at .401. He had 165 hits last season along with 91 runs scored and 96 runs batted in. He struck out 133 times and walked 98 times. Starling Marte hit .287 and he had an on-base percentage of .337 last year. He totaled 166 hits while scoring 84 runs and he drove in 81. He walked 27 times and struck out 123 times. The Pirates had 1,462 hits, including 292 doubles, 27 triples, and 140 home runs. They stole 98 bases while they were thrown out stealing 45 times. Pittsburgh walked 461 times last season and they struck out 1,322 times as a unit. They left 1,166 men on base and had a team OPS of .719. They scored 4.3 runs per contest and scored a total of 697 runs last season.

Cincinnati comes into this matchup after having a 34-47 home record and a 64 - 98 overall mark last year. Timothy Melville will be making his season debut for the Reds. Their bullpen had an earned run average of 3.96 and they gave up 512 base hits last year. Teams hit .241 against the Reds bullpen while being struck out 502 times and walking 230 times last season. As a team, Cincinnati allowed 8.89 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.75 batters per nine. They were 26th in the league in team earned run average at 4.35. The Reds pitchers as a team surrendered 1,436 base knocks and 700 earned runs last season. They gave up 177 home runs last year and they gave up 1.1 home runs per nine innings as a staff. Cincinnati as a staff walked 544 hitters and struck out 1,252. They gave up a walk 3.4 times per 9 innings while they struck out 7.8 per 9. Their team WHIP was 1.36 while their FIP as a staff was 4.24.

As a team, they hit .248, good for 25th in the league while putting together a .255 average at home. The Reds held a .394 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .312 which was good for 19th in baseball. They ranked 15th in baseball with 8.53 hits per contest. Joey Votto batted .314 last season and he had an OBP of .459. He had 171 hits last year along with 95 runs scored and 80 RBI. He struck out 135 times and walked on 143 occasions. Jay Bruce hit .226 and he had an OBP of .294. He collected 131 hits last year while he scored 72 runs and drove in 87. He earned a walk 58 times and punched out 145 times. The Reds as a unit had 1,382 base hits last year, including 257 doubles, 27 triples, and 167 homers. They had 134 stolen bases while they were thrown out 38 times. Cincinnati as a team walked 496 times last year and they struck out 1,255 times. They had 1,148 men left on base and had an OPS of .706. They scored 3.95 runs per game and totaled 640 runs last season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Trends

The Pittsburgh Pirates were 75-76-12 against the over/under last season

The Pittsburgh Pirates were 73-90-0 against the run line last season

Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends

The Cincinnati Reds were 83-73-6 against the over/under last season

The Cincinnati Reds were 79-82-0 against the run line last season

Injuries to Watch

Pittsburgh Pirates

04/04/16 3B Jung-ho Kang Knee Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
04/03/16 P Jared Hughes Oblique Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
03/31/16 C Elias Diaz Elbow Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)

Cincinnati Reds

04/04/16 P Anthony DeSclafa Oblique Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
04/04/16 P Homer Bailey Elbow Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
04/04/16 C Kyle Skipworth Ankle Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/31)
04/03/16 P John Lamb Back Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
04/01/16 P Jon Moscot Back Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
03/31/16 P Michael Lorenzen Elbow Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)

Tony's Pick: Take the Pirates

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