Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Great American Ball Park

For Updated Odds on This Game Click Here

Probable Pitchers: Junior Guerra vs. Tim Adleman

The Milwaukee Brewers visit Great American Ball Park on Wednesday to play the Cincinnati Reds. The probable starters are Junior Guerra for the Brewers and Tim Adleman for the Reds. The opening line for this matchup has Milwaukee at -115 and Cincinnati at +105. The over/under was set at 9. The Brewers have a 67-70-7 over/under record and a 77-67-0 run line mark, meaning they cover 54% of the time. The Reds are 76-67-0 against the run line and have a 75-58-10 over/under record. They cover the spread 53% of the time.

The Brewers head into this matchup with a 64-80 record, including 25-44 on the road. Starting pitcher Junior Guerra has a 8-3 record with an earned run average of 2.96 and a WHIP of 1.14. He has 95 strikeouts over his 115.2 innings pitched and he has given up 91 hits so far this season. He has allowed 7.1 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 3.74. The bullpen this year has an earned run average of 3.79 and they have given up 468 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .251 against the bullpen while being struck out 432 times and walking 194 times this season. As a team, Milwaukee has allowed 9.05 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.39 batters per nine. They are 16th in the league in team earned run average at 4.17. The Brewers pitchers have collectively given up 1,282 base hits and 591 earned runs. They have allowed 163 home runs this season and they allow 1.2 homers per nine innings as a staff. Milwaukee as a pitching staff has walked 486 batters and struck out 1,046. They walk 3.4 men per 9 innings while striking out 7.4 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.39 and their FIP as a unit is 4.45.

As a team, Milwaukee is batting .246, good for 26th in the league while putting together a .244 average away from home. The Brewers hold a .405 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .326 which is good for 11th in baseball. They rank 28th in baseball with 8.08 hits per game. Jonathan Villar comes into this game hitting .292 and his on-base percentage is at .372. He has 154 hits this season along with 80 runs scored and 54 runs batted in. He's struck out 157 times and has walked 68 times. Ryan Braun is hitting .310 and he has an on-base percentage of .372. He has totaled 142 hits so far while scoring 73 runs and he's driven in 82. He has walked 43 times and has struck out 86 times. The Brewers have 1,163 hits, including 220 doubles and 166 home runs. They've stolen 159 bases while they've been thrown out stealing 49 times. Milwaukee has walked 547 times this season and they've struck out 1,365 times as a unit. They've left 974 men on base and have a team OPS of .732. They score 4.12 runs per contest and have scored a total of 594 runs so far this year.

Cincinnati comes into this matchup with a 35-37 home record and a 61-82 overall mark. With an earned run average of 3.88, Tim Adleman has a 2-3 record and a 1.32 WHIP. He has 30 strikeouts over the 46.1 innings he's pitched during which he has given up 46 hits. He has allowed 8.9 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 5.88. So far this season the bullpen has an earned run average of 4.92 and they have given up 499 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .250 against the Reds bullpen while being struck out 461 times and walking 256 times this season. As a team, Cincinnati has allowed 9.1 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.73 batters per nine. They are 27th in the league in team earned run average at 4.85. The Reds pitchers as a team have surrendered 1,290 base knocks and 687 earned runs so far this season. They have given up 229 home runs this year and they give up 1.6 home runs per nine innings as a staff. Cincinnati as a staff has walked 555 hitters and struck out 1,096. They give up a walk 3.9 times per 9 innings while they strike out 7.7 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.45 while their FIP as a staff is 5.23.

As a team, they are batting .253, good for 19th in the league while putting together a .257 average at home. The Reds hold a .406 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .315 which is good for 23rd in baseball. They rank 20th in baseball with 8.56 hits per contest. Joey Votto comes into this matchup batting .315 and he has an OBP of .432. He has 151 hits this year along with 87 runs scored and 82 RBI. He's struck out 113 times and has walked on 100 occasions. Zack Cozart is hitting .252 and he has an OBP of .308. He has collected 117 hits so far while he's scored 67 runs and drove in 50. He has earned a walk 37 times and has punched out 84 times. The Reds as a unit have 1,223 base hits, including 246 doubles and 146 homers. They have 122 stolen bases while they've been thrown out 44 times. Cincinnati as a team has walked 412 times this year and they have struck out 1,147 times. They've had 886 men left on base and have an OPS of .721. They score 4.41 runs per game and have totaled 631 runs so far this season.

Milwaukee Brewers Betting Trends

The Milwaukee Brewers are 67-70-7 against the over/under so far this season

The Milwaukee Brewers are 77-67-0 against the run line so far this season

Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends

The Cincinnati Reds are 75-58-10 against the over/under so far this season

The Cincinnati Reds are 76-67-0 against the run line so far this season

Injuries to Watch

Milwaukee Brewers

05/27/16 P Chris Capuano Elbow 60-day DL (4/2)
04/04/16 LF Rymer Liriano Facial 60-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 P Zach Jones Shoulder 60-day DL (3/31)
04/02/16 P Yhonathan Barrios Shoulder 60-day DL (3/25)
04/01/16 P Sean Nolin Elbow 60-day DL (3/25)

Cincinnati Reds

09/09/16 P Homer Bailey Bicep out indefinitely
09/06/16 CF Billy Hamilton Oblique expected to miss series vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
06/01/16 P Caleb Cotham Shoulder 15-day DL (5/29)
05/02/16 C Devin Mesoraco Shoulder 60-day DL (5/1); out for season
04/10/16 CF Yorman Rodriguez Hamstring 60-day DL (3/27)

Josh's Pick: Take the Brewers

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