Saturday, July 2, 2016

Turner Field

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Probable Pitchers: Jose Fernandez vs. Bud Norris

The Miami Marlins head to Turner Field on Saturday to take on the Atlanta Braves. The probable pitchers are Jose Fernandez for the Marlins and Bud Norris for the Braves. The opening line for this game has Miami at -118 and Atlanta at +108. The over/under is 7. The Marlins have a 42-36-1 over/under mark and a 39-40-0 run line record, meaning they cover 49% of the time. The Braves are 35-44-0 against the run line and have a 35-38-6 over/under record. They cover the spread 44% of the time.

The Marlins head into this game with a 41-38 record, and they are 20-19 on the road. Starting pitcher Jose Fernandez has a 10-3 record with an ERA of 2.28 and a WHIP of 0.99. He has 138 strikeouts during his 94.2 innings pitched and he has given up 64 hits so far this year. He has surrendered 6.1 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 1.98. The bullpen this season has an earned run average of 3.85 and they have allowed 229 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .236 against the pen while they've been struck out 268 times and walked 119 times this year. As a unit, Miami has given up 8.48 base hits per nine innings while striking out 8.72 hitters per nine. They are 14th in the Majors in team earned run average at 4.09. The Marlins pitchers have collectively given up 661 base hits and 319 earned runs. They have allowed 73 home runs this season and they allow 0.9 homers per nine innings as a staff. Miami as a pitching staff has walked 295 batters and struck out 680. They walk 3.8 men per 9 innings while striking out 8.7 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.36 and their FIP as a unit is 3.99.

As a team, Miami is hitting .271, good for 6th in the league while putting together a .286 average on the road. The Marlins have a .407 team slugging percentage and an OBP of .330 which is good for 9th in the league. They rank 6th in baseball with 9.38 hits per contest. Marcell Ozuna comes into this game hitting .314 and his on-base percentage is at .366. He has 90 hits this season along with 49 runs scored and 44 runs batted in. He's struck out 64 times and has walked 24 times. Martin Prado is hitting .315 and he has an on-base percentage of .361. He has totaled 93 hits so far while scoring 34 runs and he's driven in 27. He has walked 22 times and has struck out 37 times. The Marlins have 741 hits, including 128 doubles and 68 home runs. They've stolen 22 bases while they've been thrown out stealing 11 times. Miami has walked 229 times this season and they've struck out 598 times as a unit. They've left 601 men on base and have a team OPS of .737. They score 4.19 runs per contest and have scored a total of 331 runs so far this year.

Atlanta comes into this game with a 12-32 home mark and a 27-52 overall record. With an ERA of 4.22, Bud Norris has a 3-7 record and a 1.37 WHIP. He has 60 strikeouts over the 70.1 innings he's pitched during which he has given up 68 hits. He has allowed 8.7 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 3.85. So far this season the bullpen has an earned run average of 4.26 and they have given up 261 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .249 against the Braves bullpen while being struck out 279 times and walking 135 times this season. As a team, Atlanta has allowed 8.47 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.81 batters per nine. They are 16th in the league in team earned run average at 4.33. The Braves pitchers as a team have surrendered 675 base knocks and 345 earned runs so far this season. They have given up 82 home runs this year and they give up 1.1 home runs per nine innings as a staff. Atlanta as a staff has walked 275 hitters and struck out 622. They give up a walk 3.5 times per 9 innings while they strike out 7.8 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.33 while their FIP as a staff is 4.20.

As a team, they are batting .238, good for 26th in the league while putting together a .239 average at home. The Braves hold a .340 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .302 which is good for 27th in baseball. They rank 26th in baseball with 8.11 hits per contest. Nick Markakis comes into this matchup batting .257 and he has an OBP of .334. He has 76 hits this year along with 30 runs scored and 42 RBI. He's struck out 50 times and has walked on 35 occasions. Freddie Freeman is hitting .285 and he has an OBP of .370. He has collected 84 hits so far while he's scored 37 runs and drove in 29. He has earned a walk 35 times and has punched out 88 times. The Braves as a unit have 641 base hits, including 127 doubles and 39 homers. They have 43 stolen bases while they've been thrown out 20 times. Atlanta as a team has walked 223 times this year and they have struck out 608 times. They've had 564 men left on base and have an OPS of .642. They score 3.34 runs per game and have totaled 264 runs so far this season.

Miami Marlins Betting Trends

The Miami Marlins are 42-36-1 against the over/under so far this season

The Miami Marlins are 39-40-0 against the run line so far this season

Atlanta Braves Betting Trends

The Atlanta Braves are 35-38-6 against the over/under so far this season

The Atlanta Braves are 35-44-0 against the run line so far this season

Injuries to Watch

Miami Marlins

07/01/16 P Bryan Morris Back 60-day DL (5/25)
05/15/16 P Kendry Flores Shoulder 15-day DL (5/15)
04/29/16 2B Dee Gordon Suspension expected to miss 80 games
04/04/16 P Raudel Lazo Shoulder 15-day DL (3/25)
04/03/16 P Carter Capps Arm 60-day DL; out for season

Atlanta Braves

06/28/16 P John Gant Oblique 15-day DL (6/27)
06/20/16 LF Mallex Smith Thumb 15-day DL (6/20)
06/08/16 P Williams Perez Rotator Cuff 15-day DL (6/7)
06/02/16 3B Gordon Beckham Hamstring 15-day DL (6/2)
05/27/16 2B Hector Olivera Suspension 82 game suspension, eligible to return (8/1)
04/12/16 P Daniel Winkler Elbow 15-day DL (4/11)
04/04/16 P Andrew McKirahan Elbow 60-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 P Paco Rodriguez Elbow out for season
04/04/16 P Shae Simmons Elbow 15-day DL (3/25)

Guy's Pick: Take the Braves

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