Saturday, May 14, 2016

Citizens Bank Park

For Updated Odds on This Game Click Here

Probable Pitchers: Tim Adleman vs. Aaron Nola

The Cincinnati Reds visit Citizens Bank Park on Saturday to play the Philadelphia Phillies. The probable starters are Tim Adleman for the Reds and Aaron Nola for the Phillies. The opening line for this matchup has Cincinnati at +123 and Philadelphia at -133. The over/under was set at 8. The Reds have a 19-12-3 over/under record and a 16-18-0 run line mark, meaning they cover 47% of the time. The Phillies are 20-15-0 against the run line and have a 15-18-2 over/under record. They cover the spread 57% of the time.

The Reds head into this matchup with a 14-20 record, including 2-10 on the road. Starting pitcher Tim Adleman has a 1-0 record with an earned run average of 2.45 and a WHIP of 1.09. He has 10 strikeouts over his 11 innings pitched and he has given up 7 hits so far this season. He has allowed 5.7 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 5.28. The bullpen this year has an earned run average of 6.34 and they have given up 130 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .269 against the bullpen while being struck out 104 times and walking 64 times this season. As a team, Cincinnati has allowed 9.06 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.22 batters per nine. They are 29th in the league in team earned run average at 5.18. The Reds pitchers have collectively given up 301 base hits and 172 earned runs. They have allowed 63 home runs this season and they allow 1.9 homers per nine innings as a staff. Cincinnati as a pitching staff has walked 144 batters and struck out 240. They walk 4.3 men per 9 innings while striking out 7.2 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.49 and their FIP as a unit is 5.89.

As a team, Cincinnati is batting .236, good for 24th in the league while putting together a .234 average away from home. The Reds hold a .406 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .291 which is good for 29th in baseball. They rank 28th in baseball with 7.59 hits per game. Joey Votto comes into this game hitting .234 and his on-base percentage is at .365. He has 26 hits this season along with 14 runs scored and 20 runs batted in. He's struck out 34 times and has walked 21 times. Zack Cozart is hitting .330 and he has an on-base percentage of .330. He has totaled 33 hits so far while scoring 19 runs and he's driven in 13. He has walked 2 times and has struck out 13 times. The Reds have 258 hits, including 60 doubles and 37 home runs. They've stolen 23 bases while they've been thrown out stealing 12 times. Cincinnati has walked 79 times this season and they've struck out 266 times as a unit. They've left 173 men on base and have a team OPS of .698. They score 4.09 runs per contest and have scored a total of 139 runs so far this year.

Philadelphia comes into this matchup with a 8-5 home record and a 20-15 overall mark. With an earned run average of 3.13, Aaron Nola has a 2-2 record and a 0.85 WHIP. He has 49 strikeouts over the 46 innings he's pitched during which he has given up 31 hits. He has allowed 6.1 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 2.34. So far this season the bullpen has an earned run average of 4.02 and they have given up 103 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .241 against the Phillies bullpen while being struck out 112 times and walking 44 times this season. As a team, Philadelphia has allowed 7.96 hits per nine innings while striking out 9.09 batters per nine. They are 11th in the league in team earned run average at 3.87. The Phillies pitchers as a team have surrendered 276 base knocks and 135 earned runs so far this season. They have given up 43 home runs this year and they give up 1.2 home runs per nine innings as a staff. Philadelphia as a staff has walked 96 hitters and struck out 315. They give up a walk 2.8 times per 9 innings while they strike out 9.1 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.19 while their FIP as a staff is 3.83.

As a team, they are batting .227, good for 28th in the league while putting together a .208 average at home. The Phillies hold a .361 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .282 which is good for 30th in baseball. They rank 30th in baseball with 7.4 hits per contest. Odubel Herrera comes into this matchup batting .339 and he has an OBP of .450. He has 42 hits this year along with 22 runs scored and 11 RBI. He's struck out 25 times and has walked on 26 occasions. Maikel Franco is hitting .240 and he has an OBP of .281. He has collected 31 hits so far while he's scored 11 runs and drove in 19. He has earned a walk 7 times and has punched out 28 times. The Phillies as a unit have 259 base hits, including 50 doubles and 28 homers. They have 13 stolen bases while they've been thrown out 12 times. Philadelphia as a team has walked 84 times this year and they have struck out 275 times. They've had 197 men left on base and have an OPS of .643. They score 3.29 runs per game and have totaled 115 runs so far this season.

Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends

The Cincinnati Reds are 19-12-3 against the over/under so far this season

The Cincinnati Reds are 16-18-0 against the run line so far this season

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends

The Philadelphia Phillies are 15-18-2 against the over/under so far this season

The Philadelphia Phillies are 20-15-0 against the run line so far this season

Injuries to Watch

Cincinnati Reds

05/10/16 P John Lamb Thumb "?" for next scheduled start
05/09/16 P Jon Moscot Shoulder 15-day DL (5/3)
05/02/16 C Devin Mesoraco Shoulder 60-day DL (5/1); out for season
05/01/16 P Raisel Iglesias Shoulder 15-day DL (4/26)
04/10/16 CF Yorman Rodriguez Hamstring 15-day DL (3/27)
04/04/16 P Anthony DeSclafa Oblique 15-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 P Homer Bailey Elbow 15-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 C Kyle Skipworth Ankle 60-day DL (3/31)
03/31/16 P Michael Lorenzen Elbow 60-day DL (3/25)

Philadelphia Phillies

05/01/16 P Dalier Hinojosa Hand 15-day DL (4/29)
04/24/16 P Charlie Morton Hamstring 15-day DL (4/24); out for season
04/14/16 P Daniel Stumpf Suspension 80-game suspension
04/04/16 P Michael Mariot Ankle 15-day DL (3/25)
04/03/16 P Mario Hollands Elbow 60-day DL (4/2)
03/31/16 LF Aaron Altherr Wrist 60-day DL (4/2)
03/31/16 LF Cody Asche Ribs 15-day DL (3/25)
03/31/16 P Matt Harrison Back 60-day DL (4/2)

Guy's Pick: Take the Phillies

Get $60 worth of FREE premium member picks. No Obligation. No Salesman. No Credit Card. Fast Sign up with Instant Access Click Here

Read more articles by Guy Bruhn