Monday, April 11, 2016

Wrigley Field

For Updated Odds on This Game Click Here

Probable Pitchers: Brandon Finnegan vs. Jon Lester

The Cincinnati Reds visit Wrigley Field on Monday to play the Chicago Cubs. The probable starters are Brandon Finnegan for the Reds and Jon Lester for the Cubs. The opening line for this matchup has Cincinnati at +229 and Chicago at -250. The over/under was set at 8. The Reds have a 3-2-0 over/under record and a 4-1-0 run line mark, meaning they cover 80% of the time. The Cubs are 4-1-0 against the run line and have a 2-3-0 over/under record. They cover the spread 80% of the time.

The Reds head into this matchup with a 4-1 record. Starting pitcher Brandon Finnegan held a 5-2 record with an earned run average of 3.56 and a WHIP of 1.21 last season. He had 45 strikeouts over his 48 innings pitched and he also gave up 37 hits over that time period. He allowed 6.9 hits per 9 innings and he had a FIP of 4.8. The bullpen this year has an earned run average of 3.12 and they have given up 10 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .172 against the bullpen while being struck out 14 times and walking 9 times this season. As a team, Cincinnati has allowed 7.6 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.6 batters per nine. They are 10th in the league in team earned run average at 3.00. The Reds pitchers have collectively given up 38 base hits and 15 earned runs. They have allowed 6 home runs this season and they allow 1.2 homers per nine innings as a staff. Cincinnati as a pitching staff has walked 16 batters and struck out 43. They walk 3.2 men per 9 innings while striking out 8.6 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.20 and their FIP as a unit is 4.57.

As a team, Cincinnati is batting .258, good for 13th in the league. The Reds hold a .413 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .339 which is good for 8th in baseball. They rank 16th in baseball with 8 hits per game. Joey Votto comes into this game hitting .211 and his on-base percentage is at .318. He has 4 hits this season along with 3 runs scored and 3 runs batted in. He's struck out 6 times and has walked 3 times. Jay Bruce is hitting .368 and he has an on-base percentage of .400. He has totaled 7 hits so far while scoring 3 runs and he's driven in 8. He has walked 0 times and has struck out 5 times. The Reds have 40 hits, including 6 doubles, 0 triples, and 6 home runs. They've stolen 4 bases while they've been thrown out stealing 1 time. Cincinnati has walked 18 times this season and they've struck out 36 times as a unit. They've left 26 men on base and have a team OPS of .752. They score 5.8 runs per contest and have scored a total of 29 runs so far this year.

Chicago comes into this matchup with a 0-0 home record and a 4-1 overall mark. With an earned run average last season of 3.34, Jon Lester had a 11-12 record and a 1.12 WHIP. He had 207 strikeouts over the 205 innings he pitched during which he gave up 183 hits. He allowed 8 hits per nine innings and his FIP stood at 2.92. So far this season the bullpen has an earned run average of 1.50 and they have given up 5 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .122 against the Cubs bullpen while being struck out 13 times and walking 1 time this season. As a team, Chicago has allowed 5.44 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.66 batters per nine. They are 4th in the league in team earned run average at 2.42. The Cubs pitchers as a team have surrendered 27 base knocks and 12 earned runs so far this season. They have given up 2 home runs this year and they give up 0.4 home runs per nine innings as a staff. Chicago as a staff has walked 7 hitters and struck out 38. They give up a walk 1.4 times per 9 innings while they strike out 7.7 per 9. Their team WHIP is 0.76 while their FIP as a staff is 2.70.

As a team, they are batting .274, good for 9th in the league. The Cubs hold a .453 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .373 which is good for 2nd in baseball. They rank 6th in baseball with 9.8 hits per contest. Anthony Rizzo comes into this matchup batting .333 and he has an OBP of .500. He has 6 hits this year along with 6 runs scored and 10 RBI. He's struck out 4 times and has walked on 5 occasions. Kris Bryant is hitting .238 and he has an OBP of .333. He has collected 5 hits so far while he's scored 3 runs and drove in 2. He has earned a walk 3 times and has punched out 5 times. The Cubs as a unit have 49 base hits, including 13 doubles, 2 triples, and 5 homers. They have 1 stolen base while they've been thrown out 0 times. Chicago as a team has walked 26 times this year and they have struck out 42 times. They've had 39 men left on base and have an OPS of .826. They score 7 runs per game and have totaled 35 runs so far this season.

Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends

The Cincinnati Reds are 3-2-0 against the over/under so far this season

The Cincinnati Reds are 4-1-0 against the run line so far this season

Chicago Cubs Betting Trends

The Chicago Cubs are 2-3-0 against the over/under so far this season

The Chicago Cubs are 4-1-0 against the run line so far this season

Injuries to Watch

Cincinnati Reds

04/04/16 P Anthony DeSclafa Oblique Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
04/04/16 P Homer Bailey Elbow Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
04/04/16 C Kyle Skipworth Ankle Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/31)
04/03/16 P John Lamb Back Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
04/01/16 P Jon Moscot Back Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
03/31/16 P Michael Lorenzen Elbow Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)

Chicago Cubs

04/08/16 C Kyle Schwarber Knee out for season
04/04/16 P Aaron Brooks Hip Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
04/04/16 3B Christian Villanueva Fibula Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
04/04/16 P Dallas Beeler Shoulder Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
03/31/16 P Zac Rosscup Shoulder out indefinitely
03/30/16 SS Javier Baez Thumb Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)

Guy's Pick: Take the Cubs

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