Sunday, September 6, 2015

Great American Ball Park

For Updated Odds on This Game Click Here

Probable Pitchers: Jimmy Nelson (11-10) vs. Michael Lorenzen (3-8)

The Cincinnati Reds host the Milwaukee Brewers at Great American Ball Park on Sunday. The Brewers send Jimmy Nelson to the mound to face Michael Lorenzen of the Reds. The opening line for this matchup has Milwaukee at +104 and Cincinnati at -114. The over/under was set at 7.5. The Brewers, with a 62-71 run line record, cover the spread 47% of the time. They also have a 65-59 over/under record. The Reds have a 63-63 over/under record and a 68-63 run line mark, which means they are covering the spread 52% of the time.

The Brewers come into this game with a 58-75 record, and they are 25-36 away from home. Jimmy Nelson has an earned run average of 3.70 and is 11-10 so far on the season while having a 1.24 WHIP. In his starts, the Brewers are 14-13 over his 165.1 innings pitched this season while giving up 145 hits during those innings. The Brewers are also 14-12 against the over/under in his starts. He is getting 4.3 runs from the team when he takes the mound. The bullpen has given up 364 hits on the season and have an earned run average of 3.58. Opposing teams are hitting .234 against the Brewers bullpen while walking 138 times and striking out 422 times. Milwaukee is averaging 7.91 strikeouts per game while getting 8.97 hits per nine innings as a team. They rank 23rd in baseball in team earned run average at 4.24.

As a team, Milwaukee is batting .253, good for 16th in the league while putting together a .252 average away from home. The Brewers on-base percentage sits at .308, which puts them at 23rd in the league and they have a team slugging percentage of .399. Gerardo Parra leads the team in hits with 136 while the team ranks 19th in baseball with 8.52 hits per game.

With a 55-77 overall record, Cincinnati will come into this game 29-35 at home. Michael Lorenzen is starting this game 3-8 for the season with an earned run average of 5.66 and a WHIP of 1.65. In his starts, the Reds are 7-11 and he has allowed 103 hits over 95.1 innings pitched this season. The Reds are also 9-8 against the over/under in his starts. He is getting 4.4 runs from the team when he takes the mound. The bullpen has given up 391 hits on the season and have a team earned run average of 3.83. Opposing teams are hitting .238 against the Reds bullpen while walking 178 times and striking out 371 times. Cincinnati is averaging 7.51 strikeouts per game while getting 8.61 hits per nine innings as a team. They rank 21st in the league in team earned run average at 4.17.

As a team, they are batting .250, good for 22nd in the league while putting together a .257 average at home. The Reds on-base percentage sits at .314, which puts them at 16th in the league and they have a team slugging percentage of .399. Joey Votto leads the team in hits with 143 while the team ranks 17th in baseball with 8.6 hits a game.

In terms of team defense, the Brewers have a fielding percentage of .981 with 93 total errors, 1,358 assists and 3,533 put outs. The Reds have committed 65 errors on the season with 1,344 assists and 3,564 put outs leading to a team fielding percentage of .987 on the year.

Milwaukee Brewers Betting Trends

The Milwaukee Brewers are 65-59 against the over/under so far this season

The Milwaukee Brewers are 62-71 against the run line so far this season

Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends

The Cincinnati Reds are 63-63 against the over/under so far this season

The Cincinnati Reds are 68-63 against the run line so far this season

Injuries to Watch

Milwaukee Brewers

09/05/15 1B Adam Lind Rest is not expected to be in the starting lineup Game #1 Saturday vs. Cincinnati Reds
08/21/15 P Tyler Cravy Elbow Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (8/19)
08/14/15 P Michael Blazek Hand Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (8/13)

Cincinnati Reds

08/31/15 CF Brennan Boesch Ankle Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (8/23)
08/19/15 CF Billy Hamilton Shoulder Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (8/19)
06/17/15 P Jon Moscot Shoulder Injury is on the 60 day disabled list (6/16)
06/11/15 SS Zack Cozart Knee Injury is on the 60 day disabled list (6/11); out for season
05/25/15 C Devin Mesoraco Hip Injury is on the 60 day disabled list (5/23), out for season
04/28/15 P Homer Bailey Elbow Injury is on the 60 day disabled list (4/26); out for season
04/04/15 P Sean Marshall Shoulder Injury is on the 60 day disabled list (4/5)

Josh's Pick: Take the Brewers

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