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Last Release of Expert NFL Picks from our handicappers.
Just so the public knows we are always transparent and honest with our reporting, in this spot we will list all of the previous weeks NFL football picks and analysis.
This page will be updated each Thursday at 5AM Eastern.
Get free NFL Picks including expert parlays picks for betting NFL games this week against the spread.
Doc's Sports
2 Unit Play. Take #302 Under 44 in San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams (8:15p.m., Thursday, October 2 Prime) The 49ers are a depleted team, and they are facing one of the top defenses in the league. The Rams have only blown out one opponent this season (Titans) and it took a miracle for their game last week to cover and score 27 points. For San Francisco to be successful in this game they must run the football and control the time of possession. That sets up a strong play with the under and we will not worry if the Rams can cover this inflated number. The total is coming down, but it is still not low enough.Robert Ferringo
THURSDAY FOOTBALL SELECTIONS1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 44.5 San Francisco at L.A. Rams (8 p.m., Thursday, Oct. 2)
2-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #302 L.A. Rams (-1.5) over San Francisco (8 p.m., Thursday, Oct. 2) AND Take #464 Carolina (+8.5) over Miami (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5)
1-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #302 L.A. Rams (-1.5) over San Francisco (8 p.m., Thursday, Oct. 2) AND Take #466 N.Y. Jets (+9.5) over Dallas (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5)
SUNDAY NFL SELECTIONS
3-Unit Play. Take #464 Carolina (+1.5) over Miami (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5)
These two teams both had misleading finals last week. If the Jets hadn’t thrown up on themselves and peed down their own legs they would've beaten the Jets on Monday. But a ton of turnovers and penalties did them in. I think this Miami team stinks. Their front seven on defense is gutless and I think the Panthers are going to run the ball down their throat. Carolina is trash and Bryce Young still has a long way to go. However, they have played better against a more difficult schedule. And they weren’t as far away as last week’s 42-13 score looked. New England’s special teams led directly to 14 points and Carolina had the ball inside New England’s 45 on five different occasions and turned that into just one missed field goal. I think Carolina will run the ball and control the clock and earn another home win.
2-Unit Play. Take #466 N.Y. Jets (+2.5) over Dallas (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5)
Yeah, Dallas played with Philadelphia in the opener (loss) and with Green Bay last Sunday night (tie). They also got bombed by the lowly Bears on the road and should’ve lost to a bad Giants team. I like that the Jets are trying to pound the ball on the ground. And I think they are going to have some success this week moving the ball against this pathetic Cowboys defense. New York still hasn’t gotten Aaron Glenn’s first win so this team is going to be the more motivated of the two. They are at home and catching points against the public. We’ll hold our nose and take the ugly home dog.
1-Unit Play. Take #468 Indianapolis (-6.5) over Las Vegas (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5)
7-Unit Play. Take #472 New Orleans (-1.5) over N.Y. Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5)
Jaxson Dart was in the right place at the right time last week in his first career start. He was at home, benefitting from a rowdy crowd that was thrilled to have him and not Russ Wilson under center. The Giants were facing a Chargers team that had to come east for the dreaded 9 a.m. PST kickoff time. Los Angeles was off a brutal divisional rivalry game and that game was L.A.’s third road trip in four weeks (Brazil, Vegas, NYC). The Chargers played like trash in the first half – penalties, dropped passes, etc. – and they probably still should’ve won that game. Dart only threw for 111 yards so it’s not as if he set the world on fire. Now the Giants have to go on the road and play in the Superdome, somewhere they have had limited/no success over the last two decades. Dart is now just a rookie making his first career road start and doing it in a place that can be tough to play. The Saints have already played four teams – Arizona, SF, Seattle and Buffalo – that are all much better than the Giants. And with the exception of the game at Seattle, the Saints were in all of those games. The Giants defense is allowing opponents to average 6.1 yards per rush. I think Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller are going to cram the ball down New York’s throat and control the clock. Spencer Rattler has been effective and is the better quarterback. The Saints have better skill talent and are better along both lines. Mix in home field advantage and the fact that the public is all over the Giants and Dart and I like this as an against-the-public play. I see a blowout.
1-Unit Play. Take #482 L.A. Chargers (-2.5) over Washington (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5)
I’ll buy back with the Chargers here. Washington still has a lot to prove this year, especially on the road. They have allowed 30 points per game away from home this year and their wins over the Raiders and Giants at home are unimpressive.
1-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #462 Cleveland (+10.5) over Minnesota (9:30 a.m.) AND Take #469 Denver (+10.5) over Philadelphia (1 p.m.)
2-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #466 N.Y. Jets (+9.5) over Dallas (1 p.m.) AND Take #479 Detroit (-3) over Cincinnati (4 p.m.)
2-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #479 Detroit (-3) over Cincinnati (4 p.m.) AND Take #484 Buffalo (-0.5) over New England (8 p.m.)
This Week’s Totals
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 44.5 Miami at Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5)
4-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 41.5 N.Y. Giants at New Orleans (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5)
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 48.5 Washington at L.A. Chargers (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5)
Carpe diem. Good luck.
Craig Trapp
NFL4-Unit Play. Take #464 Carolina (+1) Over Miami (1 p.m., Sunday, October 5)
The Panthers are 1-0 at home and face a Dolphins team on short week after winning on MNF. Miami losing WR Hill is big issue but the bad Dolphins defense is really the key for us. Carolina stays undefeated at home. Take Carolina to win this week.
3-Unit Play. Take #477 Tampa Bay (+3.5) Over Seattle (4 p.m., Sunday, October 5)
The Bucs are loaded ... Bucs are a little banged up but think that depth pays off on road this week. Tampa Bay played better than the final score looked in loss to Philly and this week Bucs are live underdogs. Take Tampa Bay to cover the spread Sunday.
7-Unit Play. Take #483 Over (48.5) New England vs Buffalo (8 p.m., Sunday, October 5)
The Patriots offense has continued to get better as season has progressed. New England put up 42 last week - it's another big output this week. Buffalo has also been on FIRE on offense, scoring 30 or more in each game. Take the Over in New England vs Buffalo on SNF.
2-Unit Play. Take 6 Point Teaser: Detroit (-4.5) over Cincinnati & Las Vegas (+13) over Indianapolis (Sunday, October 5)
Lions win by double digits and also think Raiders keep it within single digits.
Craig
Scott Rickenbach
5-Unit Play. Take #302 Los Angeles Rams (-8.5) vs San Francisco (8:15 p.m., Thursday, Oct. 2)Many times teams can battle through a key injury or two but when a team is loaded with injuries at key positions like WR and, of course, QB it can then become too much. The Niners are without QB Purdy and are dealing with a ton of injuries at the WR position and already had a number of other important players out on both sides of the ball. Now the 49ers face a Rams team that easily could be 4-0 on the season as it was unreal how they blew the game at Philadelphia this season. This LA team is looking very strong on both sides of the ball and that is even with facing the Eagles and Colts who are now a combined 7-1 on the season. The Niners are 3-1 SU this season too, like the Rams, but one of their two road games was at New Orleans (now 0-4 on the season) and again this SF team is loaded with injuries right now. LA has allowed an average of 16 points in their 3 wins this season and the Niners will struggle to get near that average with Mac Jones under center and missing a ton of starters at the other skill positions. Jones had a great start against a bad Saints team but, other than that, this is still a guy that has 19 TDs against 21 INTs since the start of the 2023 season. Stafford is coming off a huge game and has a 4-0 TD-INT ratio at home this season. The much healthier team rolls big at home here. Don't let the big number keep you away. Great spot for a home blowout. 5* LOS ANGELES RAMS -8.5
3-Unit Play. Take #461 Minnesota (-3.5) vs Cleveland (9:30 a.m., Sunday, Oct. 5)
LONDON is where this one takes place which is why it has such an early start time. I did lose with the Vikings here last week but they have some big edges here now. First off they were in London last week too so staying abroad for a 2nd straight game is a big edge for them compared to a Browns team that just came abroad after Sunday's action. Cleveland also is starting Dillion Gabriel at QB and this will be a special challenge for the rookie QB and the offensive line troubles for the Browns will not help matters here. Joe Flacco has been benched but Gabriel is making a start against a tough defense here. Cleveland's last two losses have each been by 24 points. Also, the Browns are scoring an average of just 14 ppg and Vikings will be fired up off the tight loss to Steelers here last week. Minnesota had a bad game at Atlanta this season but has averaged 32 ppg scored in their other 3 games. Wentz off a big game at QB in terms of passing yards with 375 and he can challenge a Browns defense that has played well. I know the Vikings also have some offensive line injuries but lets not forget this is a team that went 14-3 last season while the Browns went 3-14 plus Cleveland is only 1-3 this season. The Vikings bounce back off a loss. 3* MINNESOTA -3.5
6-Unit Play. Take #469 Denver (+3.5) at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5)
I faded the Eagles two weeks ago and suffered one of the all-time worst beats ever as I had the LA Rams +3.5 and they were down just 1 as they took a field goal try on the final play of the game. Inexplicably, the Eagles not only blocked the kick but ran it in for a touchdown and Philadelphia got one of the most unlikely and luckiest covers you will ever see in your life. Then we had the Buccaneers +3.5 last week and they outgained the Eagles 376 to 200 and yet lost the game by 6 points. Give credit to the Philly special teams but overall this team is winning games with "smoke and mirrors" so far and is very lucky to be 4-0 on the season. I look for their luck to run out here. I know the Broncos just played on Monday night (had Denver as a top game here) but they coasted to the win over the Bengals and dominated on both sides of the ball. Statistically (based on yardage) the Broncos rank equal on defense and better on offense in comparison with Philadelphia. Also, Denver ranks near the top for both pass protection and QB pressure while Philly is near the bottom in both categories. There is a reason that the Eagles at 4-0 are still only a 3.5 point favorite over a Denver team that is 0-2 on the road so far. In other words, don't let this line fool you! Broncos actually have a great shot at the outright upset. The Eagles luck runs out here. Philly also has a Thursday game on deck against division rival Giants. Yes New York is struggling but divisional games are a focus and the Eagles - Giants rivalry runs deep. Grab the points here with the Broncos but I am expecting the upset win but we'll grab the 3.5 here. 6* DENVER +3.5
3-Unit Play. Take #482 Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) vs Washington (4:25 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5)
Chargers off a loss and LA is going for 6 IN A ROW against the spread when they are coming off an ATS loss. In other words there is ATS data backing this one as well as plenty of statistical support. The Chargers outgained the Giants by 100 yards through the air but were done in by 2 turnovers in the loss. Also, the Commanders were outgained by a good margin through the air last week. Washington struggling in terms of the passing game both on offense and defense while the aerial attack as well as the pass D is a top 5 strength on each side of the ball for the Chargers. Washington has earned some respect deservedly but they are on the road on the west coast and catching LA off a loss. Also, the Commanders are already 0-2 on the road this season and the Chargers were a perfect 3-0 this season before being upset by the Giants in New York. Back home in LA they respond in a big way here! 3* LA CHARGERS -2.5
4-Unit Play. Take #486 Jacksonville (+3.5) vs Kansas City (8:15 p.m., Monday, Oct. 6)
Kansas City has owned this series including a post-season win a couple years ago as well. This looks like a great spot for the Jaguars to end a run of 8 straight losses when these teams meet. The Jags are already 3-1 this season and their confidence is running higher. Also the Jags have been on a strong long-term ATS run in home games with only 1 ATS loss in the last 8 games at home. The Chiefs off a big win over Baltimore and knocking off an ATS powerhouse last week could leave them flat here as they now take on a Jaguars team that went just 4-13 last season. Also, the Chiefs have a strong team on deck with the Lions up next. As for the Jags, they are 3-1 SU this season already and showing strong improvement. Also their ground game has been very strong on offense and the Chiefs run D has not been a strength. I like having home underdogs that can control the ground game and this Jaguars team, 3-1 this season, is poised for the upset here. Trevor Lawrence has been solid, though unspectacular, this season and is fine being in a game manager role with Etienne leading the way with the ground game. 4* JACKSONVILLE +3.5
Arun Shiva (Indian Cowboy)
None this weekRaphael Esparza (VSI)
NFL FOOTBALL WEEK #55 Unit Play. Take #472 New Orleans -1.5 over New York Giants (1:00p.m., Sunday October 5 CBS)
Sunday afternoon at the Caesars Superdome the home team Saints will be looking for their first ‘W’ of the season and they welcome a rookie QB to the Crescent City. The Saints played the Bills tight the whole game last week in Buffalo I see the Saints defense putting pressure on the rookie QB Jaxson Dart. With Spencer Rattler recording over 25 plus completions in his last 4 games and I smell a big game from Alvin Kamara I will lay this small number with the Saints at home. With the Giants going 2-14 in their last 16 games and 0-10 against NFC opponents I see these trends cashing on Sunday.
3 Unit Play. Take #478 Seattle -3 over Tampa Bay (4:05p.m., Sunday October 5 CBS)
(Fanduel, Hard Rock and Global books have -3 – would 100% play -3.5) The Seattle Seahawks defense has been outstanding this season and only ONE team has scored 20 points or more. The last time we saw Seattle at home they destroyed the New Orleans Saints 44-13 and that game was completely over by halftime. The Bucs offense will be playing again with no Mike Evans but Sunday afternoon the Bucs will be without RB Bucky Irving. With Seattle being at home Sunday late afternoon and the Bucs offense all banged up including QB Baker Mayfield (most likely playing) give me Sam Darnold and the Hawks defense.
Tony George
NFL
Sunday 10/5/25
3 Units
#483 New England (+8) over Buffalo *8:15 EST
The Pats can run the ball and Buffalo cannot stop it. I am pumping the brakes on the Bills. Who have they beat? The Jets, Miami, New Orleans, and they beat Baltimore and the Ravens are 1-3 and they had a 15 point with 6 minutes left in that game and somehow gave it away to Buffalo. The Pats outgained Pittsburgh in that game they lost and had 5 turnovers that
killed them. This is a divisional game and frankly the Pats despite being owned by the Bills, are better than advertised and are well coached.
7 Units – TOP PLAY
#478 Seattle (-3.5) over Tampa Bay *4 EST
Tampa is without RB Irving and WR Evans. That is over 50% of their offense against a VERY good Seattle defense, and they are on the road. The Bucs have numerous injuries this week to contend with off a loss to Philly. Seattle is sneaky good and well coached. The Seahawks are #2 in the NFL in yards per play margin. I like their running game and 1-2 punch there, not to mention Darnold is starting to heat up and has numerous options at WR. Home field here worth a full 3 points in this stadium as well. Baker Mayfield can win games and cover spreads in the final minutes of any game, but against this defense I think he will struggle without 2 key offensive weapons and this defense will be looking to contain any QB scrambles from him.
2 Units
#461 Minnesota (-3.5) over Cleveland
EARLY GAME in London *9:30 EST
So, the Browns travel overseas and start a rookie QB in Gabriel. WOW. That is how desperate Cleveland is on offense. Huge advantage for the Vikings for this game having played in Ireland last week and make a short trip to London and have been here now 2 weeks. Add in the fact they lost to Pittsburgh last week and will totally dialed in, and Cleveland cannot score points, and I will in fact lay the points against a rookie making his first start overseas. That is an automatic fade spot against the Browns. I do respect the Browns defense, but they are going to be on the field most of this game and sooner or later the Vikings will strike. I can clearly see a path where Minny can win this game by a TD+, and I cannot see a path where the Browns can win this game with a rookie QB in his first start.
2 Team / 6 Point Teaser (-120) *1 EST
3 Units
Tease #479 Detroit DOWN to (-4.5) and Tease #474 Baltimore UP to (+7.5)
Vernon Croy
7-Unit Play: #302 Los Angeles -8.5-110 over San Francisco (Thursday, October 2, 2025, 8:15pm ET)Take Los Angeles ATS as my top NFL pick for Thursday night. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I expect a dominant victory for the Rams at home against an injury plagued San Francisco team. Los Angeles is the superior team on both sides of the ball especially with the key injuries that San Francisco has coming into this game. Los Angeles is coming off an impressive victory against Indianapolis which was a bounce back spot for them after losing at Philadelphia. Los Angeles has averaged 399 yards per game this season including 267 passing yards per game which ranks 4th and 3rd offensively in the NFL. Los Angeles has also converted 40.4% of their third downs this season and I do expect to see them put up a big number against the San Francisco defense. San Francisco is coming off their first loss of the season against Jacksonville and that is a Jacksonville team I feel is not very good. San Francisco has had a very weak schedule to start the season at Seattle, at New Orleans against Arizona and Jacksonville. Meanwhile this is a Los Angeles team that is getting healthy coming into this game. I expect a huge game from Stafford just like we saw last week where he completed 70.7% of his passes, good for 375 passing yards and three touchdowns. Play Los Angeles ATS NOTE: If you have not done so already make sure you grab my 2025 NHL package as I look to absolutely crush the books this NHL season. I believe it will be my best NHL season on record.
6-Unit Play: #473 Houston -2-110 over Baltimore (Sunday, October 5, 2025, 1:00pm ET)
Take Houston ATS as my top NFL pick for Sunday. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I expect a double-digit victory from Houston on the road here Sunday. Baltimore simply has too many key injuries on both sides of the ball coming into this game, it's actually ridiculous and Houston comes into this game healthy. Houston is coming off a dominant victory against Tennessee and really this team is much better than the record indicates with all their losses being extremely close this season. Stroud completed 78.6% of his passes against Tennessee last week good for 233 yards and 2 touchdowns and now he faces a depleted Baltimore defense which I believe he will exploit in this game. Opponents have converted 41.9% of their third downs against Baltimore this season averaging 33.3 points per game which ranks last defensively in the NFL and now this team is even more depleted defensively coming into this game with several key injuries. Play Houston ATS
4-Unit Play: #469 Denver +3.5 -110 over Philadelphia (Sunday, October 5, 2025, 1:00pm ET)
Take Denver ATS as my top NFL pick for Sunday. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and this is a Philadelphia team that has really struggled offensively this season averaging just 265 yards per game including just 138 passing yards per game which ranks 31st offensively. Opponents have converted 37% of their third downs against Philadelphia this season and I believe Denver can hand them their first loss of the season. Denver does have a very good defense holding opponents to just 16.8 points per game against them this season what's ranked second defensively in the NFL with opponents converting just 32.7% of their third downs against them. Play Denver ATS
4-Unit Play: #475 Tennessee +7.5-110 over Arizona (Sunday, October 5, 2025, 4:05pm ET)
Take Tennessee ATS as my top NFL pick for Sunday. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and this is a huge bounce back game for Tennessee after getting blown out last week and held scoreless against Houston. It's time for Tennessee to step up and I believe that they do that this week against a mediocre Arizona team. Keep in mind this is a Tennessee team that went to Denver to start the season and gave them a run for their money losing by just 8 points as Denver put up a touchdown in the fourth quarter. Arizona also comes into this game banged up defensively and they have struggled against the pass this season. Play Tennessee ATS
6-Unit Play: #485 Kansas City -3-120 over Jacksonville (Monday, October 6, 2025, 8:15pm ET)
(LINE AVAILABLE AT CIRCA AND HARD ROCK)
Take Kansas City ATS as my top NFL pick for Monday night. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and this Kansas City team is much better than the record indicates. Jacksonville, I have not been impressed with this season and I believe that they are overachieving also because they have had a very weak schedule to start the season with a win at home against Carolina a loss on the road against Cincinnati a win at home against Houston and a win on the road against a beat-up San Francisco team. Opponents have converted 45.6% of their third downs against Jacksonville this season and I do expect Kansas City to put up a big number in this game. Kansas City is coming off an impressive victory against Baltimore and I believe that this team is finally hitting its stride even though they have had an extremely tough schedule to start the season playing at Los Angeles and then at home against Philadelphia at New York and last week against Baltimore. Kansas City has converted 39.3% of their third downs this season and that number will climb against this Jacksonville team. Mahomes is coming off his best game of the season completing 67.6% of its passes throwing 270 yards with four touchdowns. He will have another big game Monday night. Play Kansas City ATS and I would not be shocked to see them win this game by 10 points.
Scott Spreitzer
2-Unit Play: Take 472 Saints -2 over Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, October 5)I’m backing the Saints on Sunday. Jaxson Dart won his first start as an NFL QB last week but outside of a few plays here and there, it wasn’t overly impressive. Dart threw for 111 yards on 13 of 20 passing. He held onto the ball too long at times and ran out of pocket protection too early, leading to six sacks. The Giants benefited from Charger mistakes, scoring 11 points off of turnovers. Dart no longer has WR Malik Nabers who tore his ACL last Sunday. New Orleans wants to run the football and did so for 189 yards on 5.6 yards per carry against Buffalo last week. The Giants have allowed the fourth most rushing yards this season and are tied for the worst yards per carry average allowed at 6.1. The Giants are on a 1-10 ATS slide in road or neutral site games following a home game, losing by an average margin of 9 ppg. I’m backing the Saints. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
6-Unit Play: Take 477 Buccaneers +3.5 over Seahawks (4:05 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5)
I’m taking the points with the Buccaneers. The Tampa Bay offense continues to play extremely well, even in last week’s loss. The run defense is next level which should force Seattle QB Sam Darnold to have to win with his arm. Baker Mayfield is now one of the top QBs in the league and his team is 8-2 ATS on the road when getting more than three points. RB Rachaad White is averaging more than 4.5 yards per carry and should fill in well for Bucky Irving and WR Chris Godwin was in full practice mode on Wednesday. This is a tough test for the Seattle defense facing the best offense they’ve seen so far this season. I’m taking the points with Tampa Bay. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
3-Unit Play: Take 485 Chiefs -3.5 over Jaguars (8:15 p.m., Monday, Oct. 6)
The NFL had their chance to slam the door on the Chiefs but now KC is getting healthy and we saw what they can do when Patrick Mahomes has a receiver who can stretch the field. Xavier Worthy caught five passes in his return and one went for 37 yards against the Ravens and his presence forces defenses to keep from cheating against short yardage underneath plays. Jacksonville is 3-1 SU/ATS but the schedule has been soft and this will be their toughest test yet. I’m betting the Jags fail the test. I’m laying the points with Kansas City. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
August Young
4-Unit Play - (301) San Francisco 49ers | Los Angeles Rams o43.5 -110 (10/2 | 8:15PM EST) This line continue to come down based on the injury news and market overreaction but historic data likes the over in this spot with the change at QB due to shorter fields and a higher rate of mistakes. The Rams offense has been humming and we haven't been impressed with the 49ers defense in two of the last three weeks. Perfect football conditions too.7-Unit Play - (472) New Orleans Saints -120 (ML) over New York Giants (10/5 | 1:00PM EST) I don't care what happened last week; we don't trust Jaxson Dark at all - and this will be his first road start of the season. The Saints are 0-4 SU and will be HUNGRY. The public are pouring in on New York, but the pro bettors are all over New Orleans which has caused this line to flip. We're in full agreement here. We should also note that conference home favorites are 57% ATS on the blind for a +8.0% ROI when facing an opponent coming off an upset home win. Lots at play here, but this is a big edge based on our numbers and market situation.
Strike Point Sports
NFL Plays:
7-Unit Play. Take #479 Detroit (-10) over Cincinnati (4:25 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5)
This is a lot of points in an NFL game, but this is a huge mismatch. Many times when the money is all leaning one way, I like to go the other way, but every once-in-a-while, you follow suit. The Bengals just don’t have enough with Browning to keep pace with a Lions team that is averaging 41 points per game over their three game winning streak. The Bengals have struggled the last two weeks against two defenses that get after the QB. Detroit has already proven they can pressure opposing QB’s as they sacked Lamar Jackson seven times. This one should be out of hand by the half, and Cincy doesn’t have the ability to come back. The Lions just destroy teams that they should beat. They are the one team that doesn’t care who their opponents are. When they win, they win big. Lay the points.
3-Unit Play. Take #464 Carolina (+1) over Miami (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5)
Give me a break with the Dolphins being favored here, and give me more of a break with it switching from the Panthers being favored originally. Yes, Miami got a win over the Jets last weekend, but New York just gave that game away. They had plenty of opportunities to score early, and just couldn’t get the job done. Miami is not going to go on the road and win this game after getting a win last weekend. Miami has had big games against AFC East foes for three straight weekends, and gets the Chargers at home next weekend. You are going to see a less than stellar Dolphins team here as Carolina wins easily.
3-Unit Play. Take #468 Indianapolis (-6.5) over Las Vegas (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5)
The Colts should not have lost to the Rams last weekend. We can sit here and dwell on what Mitchell did, but in the end they are going to be pissed and bounce back in a big way. The Raiders have been up and down, and they will be down in this one. Las Vegas lost a big part of the left side of their offensive line, and that is where they attack with AJ. The Colts are going to shut that side of their offense down, and then the Indy offense will build their lead. The Colts average just 1.25 punts per game, and the Raiders don’t bring much fear into this matchup. The Colts are more efficient and can do everything that the Raiders can do, just at a higher level. Take the home favorite in this one.
Best of Luck - Strike Point Sports
Jason Sharpe
NFL-Sunday October 5th 2025-
7 Unit Play Take #466 New York Jets +2.5 over Dallas (1:00pm est):
The New York Jets are off to an 0-4 start to the season but they've played decent football so far and very easily could be 2-2 this year. The Jets outplayed Miami on Monday night and were without starting QB Justin Fields the week before with both games on the road. Jets 1st year head coach Aaron Glenn was furious after their Monday night loss as it was reported he had a closed door meeting with his team. The Dallas defense looked awful against two bottom level offenses this year (Chicago and NY Giants). They did play decent last game against a solid Green Bay team but that was a big Sunday night home game in an emotional spot versus former star Micah Parsons and off an ugly loss the week previous. This is a bad team in a bad spot.
Take New York plus the points.
3 Unit Play Take #461 Cleveland +3.5 over Minnesota (9:30am est):
Cleveland has faced Cincinnati (with Burrow), Baltimore (when much more healthy), Green Bay and Detroit and have actually battled hard in all four games. The Browns actually played way better than their 34-10 final score loss to the Lions last week as they held very powerful Detroit offense in check for the most part but were done in on short fields on turnovers and allowed a punt return touchdown as well. Cleveland makes a change at quarterback in this one and that can't hurt them despite a rookie making his first career start as the Browns have got nothing from their QB play thus far in 2025.
This Minnesota resume this season doesn't look good at all. They came back to beat a below average Chicago team in week one after getting soundly beat for 2.5 quarters of that contest. The Vikings offense looked anemic against a Pittsburgh defense that up until that game hadn't played well and they also struggled against an average at best Atlanta defense. Minnesota did hammer Cincinnati but there's an argument to be made the Bengals are the worst team in the league right now without Joe Burrow.
Play Cleveland plus the points.
3 Unit Play Take #469 Denver +4 over Philadelphia (1:00pm est):
This is a simple handicap. No team in the NFL has been more lucky this season than Philadelphia. I feel like the betting markets continue to overrate this team because they're the defending Super Bowl champions but if you look closely at their body of work the Eagles have looked like an average team so far . Philadelphia has actually been out gained in each of their first four games this season despite going a perfect 4-0 overall. Denver is higher ranked currently on offense and also on defense in this matchup in DVOA.
Play Denver plus the points.
3 Unit Play Take #483 New England +8.5 over Buffalo (8:20pm est):
I like to back decent offenses in the NFL when they are getting more than a field goal in a game and we have that here with New England. The Patriots offense is playing well under 2nd year quarterback Drake Maye. They come into this game off their best performance of the season last time out. It's also a profitable idea to look to back the underdog in a divisional battle like this one.
Buffalo is off to a 4-0 start but 3 of those 4 wins have come over the worst teams in the league. When the Bills were tested this season against an average team or higher they pulled off a miracle win over Baltimore in a game they were outplayed by the Ravens.
Take New England plus the points.
Monday October 6th 2025-
4 Unit Play Take #486 Jacksonville +3.5 over Kansas City (8:15pm est):
It feels like most think the Kansas City offense is now back after their big output last week over Baltimore but the bigger story in that game was all the big injuries the Ravens had in that contest. Much different task here for the Chiefs in this one as they go on the road on MNF and are being asked to win by more than a field goal.
Jacksonville is a much improved team this year under their 1st year head coach. The Jaguars also have a sneaky good home field advantage and this crowd should be pumped up for their biggest home game in a few years on Monday.
Take Jacksonville plus the points.
Thank you and good luck,
Jason Sharpe
Griffin Murphy
6 Unit Play - Take #472 New Orleans Saints (-130) Over New York Giants. (1:00p.m, Sunday, October 5th)We have a massive case of selling the hype here on this game. Jaxson Dart leads the Giants to their first win of the season with his first start as the new QB. He looked solid in his first outing with 111 yards and 1 TD. This has become so publicly mainstreamed we are getting magnificent theories here. So this line opened up as a pick 'em game. Now the line has shifted to -2 in the Saints' favor. Yet, the public money handle has posted that 91% of bets have been placed on the Giants +2, with 9% being placed on the Saints. When it comes to the moneyline handle, 60% of the money is currently on the Giants to win straight up at +110, whilst 40% is on the Saints to win straight up at -130. So, if all the sharp and public money is coming in on the Giants, why has the line shifted 2 points in the Giants' favor? This definitely raises eyebrows and grabs attention. Now, let’s get to this matchup. The Saints have dealt with back-to-back road games against Seattle and Buffalo, which is a huge plus for us entering this game. New Orleans is taking a huge step down in class now with the Giants heading into town, and this is a big positive for the strength of the schedule. The Saints are also now home for 2 straight weeks with a very beatable New England team on deck. We are aware the Saints are winless on the season, but they have had a brutal schedule and have been extremely competitive. Spencer Rattler leads at the helm with 5 touchdowns, 1 interception, and 765 yards on the year. When it comes to metrics, the Saints have brutal numbers, but this team is actually solid in the secondary and can apply pressure when needed. The Giants are way high off their first win of the season, and we believe this to be a letdown spot. New York has Philadelphia on deck at home and then Denver on the road. It’s very easy to say the Giants are going to go all in, as this is a must-win sequence. This has so many variables that are telling the public to play the Giants, yet we are going with the heavy public fade. Let’s launch this 6-unit ticket with New Orleans as Rattler looks to pick up his first win of the season in the Superdome with the Saints.
Griffin Murphy
2 Unit Play - Take #475 Tennessee Titans (+7.5) Over ARI Cardinals. (4:05p.m, Sunday, October 5th)
The Titans are coming off a brutal 26-0 loss to Houston last Sunday, which caught some public attention as Houston picked up their first win of the season. Despite Cam Ward's performance this season, we believe this is the game he breaks up. This is not a timer play; this is a deficiency in the Arizona defenses and an opportunity to attack it. Tennessee has been noted now as the worst team in football, behind the New York Giants with their hype charade going on. Arizona has dealt with New Orleans, Carolina, San Francisco, and Seattle. Every single one of their games thus far has been within 1 possession. Arizona is by no means a powerhouse, and Kyler Murray is a liability in our eyes at the QB spot. Connor is out, which really puts a crease in their offensive line as well as establishing the pass game for Kyler Murray. Arizona is 2-2 and has had a very easy schedule. Arizona is 28th in the league when it comes to defending the pass, and this metric stands out due to their lack of a talented schedule. Tennessee has dealt with Denver, LA, Indianapolis, and Houston. They are now out west for 2 weeks, with Arizona this Sunday and Las Vegas the following. We believe this to be a very strong spot for Tennessee and like them to go full throttle in this game. Let’s drill the Titans here with the expectation that they pick up their first win of the season on Sunday. We are 100% securing the +7.5 points as heavy insurance.
Griffin Murphy
Nick Menken
7 Unit – Take #469 DEN Broncos (+3.5) over PHI Eagles (-110) (1:05p.m, Sunday, October 5th)The Denver Broncos travel to Philadelphia this Sunday to face the unbeaten Eagles, who enter Week 5 with a perfect 4–0 record. The Broncos are coming off a dominant 28–3 win over Cincinnati, where quarterback Bo Nix eclipsed 300 passing yards for the first time this season, adding two touchdowns but also tossing his fourth interception of the year. Turnovers have been an issue, though Nix has shown better decision-making over the last couple of weeks. For Philadelphia, the big question remains whether Jalen Hurts can consistently deliver through the air. While he’s protected the football well throwing five touchdowns with no interceptions his passing numbers have been modest, with just 609 yards over four games. The Eagles have found ways to win, but they haven’t blown anyone away. That opens the door for a hungry Denver team eager to prove it belongs among the NFL’s upper tier. Establishing the run with J.K. Dobbins will be critical for the Broncos, as it can keep Philly’s pass rush honest and give Nix more time to work. If Denver can do that, this offense has the weapons to challenge the Eagles, while their defense allowing just 16 points per game has the ability to create pressure and possibly force Hurts into his first turnover of the season. This has the makings of a tight, competitive matchup that comes down to the wire. With the Broncos showing real signs of turning the corner, I like the value in grabbing the points on the road in Philadelphia.
Take #469 DEN Broncos (+3.5) over PHI Eagles
Nick Menken
4 Unit – Take #472 New Orleans Saints ML (-130) over New York Giants (1:00p.m, Sunday, October 5th)
We have the New York Giants coming into New Orleans here for Sunday’s action in the NFL. While this line has favored the Saints -2 coming after the change at quarterback for the Giants in Dart. The new QB is in New York and coming off their first win against the LA Chargers. Handing them their first loss of the season. Coming into this week, who wouldn’t be on the Giants? As they took down one of the best teams in the NFL, with their rookie quarterback. 90% of the public money is on the New York Giants here. Yet, the line is still in favor of the New Orleans Saints here at -2. That to me is a red flag on the oddsmakers. With Spencer Rattler at quarterback, this kid has put up numbers despite being 0-4 to start. Rattler has over 760 yards passing with 5 touchdowns and only one interception. This line to me in this game is way off, and I’m fading the public on this game this week. As everyone is going to be on the Giants. We’re flipping this game and going with the team unbeaten at home. I believe this is a letdown spot for the Giants following their significant victory over the Chargers. Next week the Giants have a divisional matchup against the Eagles. This could be a look-ahead spot here for them coming in against a team that is winless on the season. Take the Saints here at home. We’re fading the public, and we’re going to watch Spencer Rattler tear up the secondary for the Giants, who have been awful this year on the road on the defensive side. Saint on the moneyline here over the Giants.
New Orleans Saints ML (-130) over New York Giants
Nick Menken
1 Unit – Take #481 Washington Commander (+3) over LA Chargers (-120) (4:25p.m, Sunday, October 5th)
We have a game in the middle slot between the Washington Commanders and the LA Chargers here on Sunday. While the Chargers just lost their first game of the year last week against the Giants 21-18. Now again, the public is going to be all over the Chargers here at home after a loss to the Giants in a bounce back on Sunday. But for the Commander, they will have Daniles back on the field for Sunday's game. He was in practice fully on Wednesday. This is a Washington team that struggles through the first four weeks and has been on the defensive side of the ball. This offense with Jaylen back in there is going to put up points against the Chargers. But the test is going to come from the defensive side of Washington, who is allowing 373 yards per game this season. And who have lost both times this season playing on the road. But with an elite quarterback in Washington, I think they have a chance to keep up if their defense lets them down early. The Chargers are going to be aggressive after just losing to the Giants. But with the Washington Commanders getting three points here, I feel safer. If the Chargers do end up winning this game, I could see it coming down to the last seconds. That is why I believe the smart play in this game is backing the Washington Commanders here on the road. The public is all over the Chargers here at home coming off a loss. Give me the points with Washington here.
Take #481 Washington Commander (+3) over LA Chargers (-120)
Nick Menken
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