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Last Release of Expert NFL Picks from our handicappers.
Just so the public knows we are always transparent and honest with our reporting, in this spot we will list all of the previous weeks NFL football picks and analysis.
This page will be updated each Thursday at 5AM Eastern.
Get free NFL Picks including expert parlays picks for betting NFL games this week against the spread.
Doc's Sports
5 Unit Play. Take #474 Pittsburgh Steelers +2 over New York Jets (8:20p.m., Sunday, October 20 NBC) TOP NFL PICKS OF THE WEEK The Jets made a big trade this week, but I do not see them beating a well-coached Pittsburgh team at Acrisure Stadium. The Jets are 2-4 on the season and the Steelers are 4-2. Pittsburgh has made a living beating bad teams during the Mike Tomlin tenure and tonight should be no different. I do think it matters who Pittsburgh starts at quarterback, the defense, running game, and special teams will be enough for the home team to win this game by close to double digits.2 Unit Play. Take #475 Baltimore Ravens -3.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8:15p.m., Monday, October 21 ABC) Just play QB Lamar Jackson blind against NFC teams. He is 22-3 straight-up in his career when facing NFC teams. Tampa is benefiting from a weak division and I do not believe they are the same caliber team that Baltimore is.
Robert Ferringo
THURSDAY FOOTBALL SELECTIONS5-Unit Play. Take #311 Denver (-2.5) over New Orleans (8 p.m., Thursday, Oct. 17)
New Orleans is a husk of a team. They don’t have the home field advantage that they used to and you better believe that Sean Payton is going to have his guys ready to go as he heads back home. The Saints have been demolished by injuries. They are down two offensive line starters, both of their starting receivers, and their starting quarterback. And they weren’t that good to begin with. Now they are starting a rookie quarterback, two rookie receivers, and a patchwork offensive line. The defense has also been lit up for 103 points in the last three games and they have been on the field too much. The short week works against New Orleans. Denver stinks as well. But they are healthier. Their rookie quarterback is better. Their skill position players are better and healthier. And, most importantly, they are packing a Top 5 defense right now. The capper: Payton versus Dennis Allen is as big of a coaching mismatch as you will find.
1-Unit Play. Take #313 Boston College (+7.5) over Virginia Tech (7:30 p.m., Thursday, Oct. 17)
FRIDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL SELECTIONS
4-Unit Play. Take #317 Florida State (+3.5) over Duke (7 p.m., Friday, Oct. 18)
Florida State has beaten Duke 22 straight times. They are coming off a bye week and Mike Norvell has been excellent in his career when given extra time to prep. Florida State has been a debacle this year, going 1-5 and falling out of the Top 10 weeks ago. The reality, though, is that FSU has played an absolutely brutal schedule. I think all six teams they have played are better than Duke. And the Blue Devils haven’t played anyone close to as good as what the Seminoles have faced. There is still talent on this FSU team. They have a solid defense. And their offense should be better prepared after two weeks to get it together. I don’t think Duke is any good at all and I don’t think they should be favored here.
1-Unit Play. Take #320 Purdue (+28.5) over Oregon (8 p.m., Friday, Oct. 18)
Letdown spot. That’s it. Plain and simple. Oregon has been unconvincing in wins over Idaho, UCLA and Michigan State. They will win this game. But are they going to be motivated enough to go ring up a blowout? I’m betting not.
2-Unit Play. Take #321 Oklahoma State (+9.5) over BYU (10 p.m., Friday, Oct. 18)
The Cougars are having a fantastic year and are a great story. However, this team isn’t as good as people think it is and they have several misleading wins. They beat Arizona by 22 last week (and I don’t think Arizona is all that good) despite outgaining them by like 10 yards. They benefitted from four more turnovers and I just don’t know that their incredible turnover luck is sustainable. That win was similar to their blowout win over Kansas State, in a game they were outgained by 140. Mike Gundy has always been better in the underdog role and this game could be a turning point in their season.
1-Unit Play. Take #390 Nevada (+3) over Fresno State (10:30 p.m., Friday, Oct. 18)
Two bad teams. Two bad defenses. I like how Nevada has been fighting tooth and nail all season They should’ve beaten SMU and could’ve pulled upsets against Georgia Southern and San Jose State. They are 5-2 ATS on the season and just keep battling. Fresno State is in a letdown spot here after bigger games against UNLV and Washington State. Throw in three straight years’ worth of revenge for the Wolfpack and I like them to get this one.
SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL SELECTIONS
1-Unit Play. Take #326 Connecticut (-2) over Wake Forest (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 19)
6-Unit Play. Take #330 Georgia Southern (+9.5) over James Madison (4 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 19)
These two teams were among the preseason favorites to win the Sun Belt. So it is a bit of a surprise to see James Madison as this hefty of a favorite on the road. I think that Georgia Southern has enough to win this game outright. They played Boise State to the bone (they had a fourth quarter lead) at home earlier this season and faced a Top 10 team in Ole Miss already this season. I don’t think that anything JMU is packing in this game is anything GSU hasn’t seen. Georgia Southern won at home as a 13-point underdog against the Dukes in 2022 and they will want revenge for an embarrassing 41-13 loss at Madison last year. Revenge. Home field advantage. A bunch of points. Sounding like a good situation to me. James Madison is getting love just outside of the Top 25. But, honestly, they lost to the best team that they played (UL-Monroe) as a 17-point favorite and they have played a bunch of slobs this year. I think this one will be tight in the fourth quarter and I’d rather have the points than be laying them.
2-Unit Play. Take #332 Louisville (+5) over Miami (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 19)
I still don’t trust Miami. Ask yourself: what would this line be if Miami was 4-2 and not ranked No. 6 in the country? Because that’s where they should be. They benefitted from an officiating mistake in their win over Virginia Tech and then fluked their way to a win last week despite being down 38-18 in the fourth quarter. Louisville might be the best team that Miami has faced. I know the Hurricanes are off a bye week. But sometimes that can work against big favorites as it gets them out of their rhythm. The Cardinals took tough losses to solid Notre Dame and SMU teams, but they really were in both of those games and could’ve stolen one or both. The Cardinals have done well as a home underdog and I think they have enough to pull an upset.
1-Unit Play. Take #340 Florida (+2) over Kentucky (7 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 19)
Did we bail on Florida too early? Look, Billy Napier is toast and the Gators are going to get their clocks cleaned the rest of this season. But they have been playing better as of late and pushed Tennessee to overtime last week, outgaining the vaunted Vols in the process. Kentucky kind of fluked out a win over Ole Miss. Other than that? They haven’t done anything. This is only Kentucky’s second road game of the season and they haven’t been that great away from home the last few years. I think I would like the underdog in this game regardless of who it was. So I’ll go with the home team.
2-Unit Play. Take #348 Georgia Tech (+11.5) over Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 19)
I have not been super impressed with Notre Dame. I think they are overrated mainly because people WANT them in the 12-team playoffs. I don’t really think they are one of the 12 best teams in the country. Defensively, the Irish really are excellent. But they really struggle offensively. The Irish are playing their first road game in a month. They have only beaten two above average teams – A&M and Louisville – and those two wins came by 10 and 7 points. Mix in that red flag loss to Northern Illinois and I don’t know that we should expect the Irish to just step on a (very partial) neutral field and lay someone out by two touchdowns.
2-Unit Play. Take #356 Cincinnati (-4.5) over Arizona State (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 19)
I’m going to keep banging the drum with Cincinnati. I think this team is solid. They really should be undefeated right now. This is only their second home game since Sept. 8 and they won their last one 34-0. The Bearcats are catching the Sun Devils in a letdown spot here. Arizona State is off an upset win over Utah last week. Now the Devils have to hit the road and they have to be up for an early kickoff (9 a.m. PST) against a physical team. The Bearcats have covered four straight and we will go to the well with them.
1-Unit Play. Take #376 Illinois (+4) over Michigan (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 19)
3-Unit Play. Take #383 Colorado State (-7) over Air Force (8 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 19)
I’m also going to keep banging the drum against Air Force. This team is awful. They are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games and 0-6 ATS this season alone. Air Force hasn’t just been losing: they have been getting rolled over. They lost by 12 at Wyoming and by 15 at New Mexico, and those teams are awful. Colorado State is not as bad as its record and as its stats suggest. They took lumps from Texas and Colorado early in the season. Since then they have gone 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS, with the lone loss coming in double-overtime at Oregon State. No shame there. The Rams have also lost seven straight times to their in-state rivals, including four straight losses in this series by double-digits. I think Colorado State will get its first win at Colorado Springs since 2002 and will do so convincingly.
1-Unit Play. Take #400 Arkansas (+1.5) over LSU (7 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 19)
1-Unit Play. Take #402 Texas (-4.5) over Georgia (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 19)
Maybe this Georgia team just isn’t as good as everyone wants them to be? Georgia has been a dominating force in the SEC the last three years. But a big part of that has been two things. First, they have had overwhelming, NFL-caliber talent (which they don’t have as much of this year). Second, the Bulldogs have benefitted from a comically easy schedule the last few seasons. That’s not the case now. They almost lost at Kentucky and they were getting run out of the building at Alabama. UGA has been unimpressive in its wins and the books have caught up with them (0-5 ATS). Texas is 5-1 ATS and has the home field edge. I like them to get another statement win.
2-Unit Play. Take #406 Mississippi State (+17) over Texas A&M (4 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 19)
Here we have another letdown spot. A&M lit up Missouri last week, taking down a Top 10 opponent with a nearly flawless game. They had a bye week after that win (and their physical win over Arkansas) and now dress up as a huge road favorite. I don’t like that for this Aggies group. This is only their second road game of the season. Mississippi only lost to Texas by 22 and to Georgia by 10. And both of those games were on the road. Is A&M better than those two SEC powers? I don’t think so. The Aggies have a bigger game on deck with LSU and I think they do enough to win in Starkville but not enough to get past this number.
2-Unit Play. Take #420 Indiana (-6.5) over Nebraska (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 19)
Let’s just keep riding Indiana. We pretty much have to keep it going on the Hoosiers until they don’t cover a spread. They are on a 5-0 ATS run and none of their wins this season have been particularly close. I like this Nebraska team. Matt Rhule’s doing a good job rebuilding the foundation of the Huskers program. However, this is only their second road game this season and they won’t have the benefit of that friendly Lincoln crowd. Nebraska’s only other road game this year was at lowly Purdue and they were unimpressive in that one, leading just 7-3 with 11 minutes left in the game. Nebraska’s strength is its defense. They may slow Indiana down but I don’t think they are going to stop them. And I don’t like Nebraska’s freshman quarterback to be able to trade touchdowns on the road.
2-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #360 Memphis (-5) over North Texas (7:30 p.m.) AND Take #370 South Florida (-6.5) over UAB (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 19)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #354 Clemson (-14) over Virginia (Noon) AND Take #387 Colorado (+10) over Arizona (4 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #346 Tennessee (+10) over Alabama (3:30 p.m.) AND Take #358 West Virginia (+10) over Kansas State (7:30 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #332 Louisville (+12) over Miami (Noon) AND Take #376 Illinois (+10.5) over Michigan (3:30 p.m.)
Arun Shiva (Indian Cowboy)
4-Unit Play. #457. Take Cincinnati Bengals -5.5 over Cleveland Browns (Sunday @ 1pm est)The Bengals are primed for a big game here as they have lost by a total of about 15 points to 4 teams and I think they bounce-back wondefully here in a battle of Ohio. Remember, the Bengals have lost to some of the best teams such as the Ravens and Chiefs and even Washington adn the Browns overperformed at Philadelphia not because they are good but b/c Philadelpha is that bad. Bengals roll here.
7-Unit Play. #464. Take Minnesota Vikings -1.5 over Detroit Lions (Sunday @ 1pm est)
We absolutely love the Vikings here. They are undefeated, they got clobbered by the Lions the last 2 times they have played them, they can send a message to the league here as there are just 2 undefated teams and we think the Lions have beat no one frankly, Arizona, Cowboys are all weak this year and of course, this team lost to the one decent team they played in the Bucs. Great spot for Minnesota to prove something here as Detroit comes off a massive win demolishing Dallas and they are going to be ill prepared to face a fantastic Vikings coaching staff and we like Minneota here for the big win.
4-Unit Play. #469. Take Over 51 Carolina vs. Washington (Sunday @ 4:05pm est)
You have a Carolina team that is likely an active underdog here, this is their super bowl of sorts and with Washington off a loss with Kliff Klingsbury as their OC, look for a very high scoring affair and an oer here.
4-Unit Play. #473. Take New York Jets -2 over Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday @ 8:20pm est)
Russell Wilson is starting here and I think he has a very slow start to the seaosn and with Rodgers getting Adams that he desperately wanted, the fact the Jets have played a brutal schedule of Minnesota, Denver and Bills of late, look for the Jets to finally bust out here in this fantastic public fade.
Raphael Esparza (VSI)
4 Unit Play. Take #474 Pittsburgh +2 over New York Jets (8:20p.m., Sunday October 20 NBC)I’m so confused on what the NY Jets are doing now these days. The Jets traded for Davante Adams but the last time I checked he can’t block in the O-Line or run the ball. The Steelers are coming off a road win in Vegas beating the Raiders 32-13 and I’m a bit shocked that the Steelers could be stating Russell Wilson. I’m not playing this game because of the Steelers offense but I see the Steelers defense being a huge problem for Aaron Rodgers and the Jets O-Line. Give me the Steelers plus the points at home. The Steelers are 7-3 ATS last 10 home games and the Jets are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog.
6 Unit Play. Take #477 Over 43.5 LA Chargers at Arizona (9:00p.m., Monday October 21 ESPN)
The second Monday Night Football game should be entertaining, and I see points being scored all game long. Why do I like the ‘Over’ Monday night at State Farm Stadium? Because the Arizona Cardinals defense has given points at will as of late. The Arizona Cardinals losses this year are given up an average of 32.5ppg. The Chargers are coming off a bog road win last week against the Broncos and I see both teams being able to score on each other’s defense. QB Justin Herbert has played better now that his offensive line is getting healthy, and I see him scoring points against the Cards secondary. The Arizona Cardinals are 8-2 O/U in their last 10 home games
Tony George
NFLThursday
10/17/24
4 Units
#311 Denver (-3) over New Orleans *8:15 EST
Yes, you have read it everywhere, the Saints are injury riddled on both sides of the ball, and start QB Rattler, a rookie tonight in place of Carr who is still out. He looked “OK” against Tampa. The OL line is banged up as well, and that is bad news against a solid DL for Denver. This is why this line went from -2 to -3.
Denver on the road with a rookie QB too, but I like Sean Peyton to return to where he coached and coached well and won a Super Bowl, to get the job done with healthier team. Bear in mind the Saints had a punt TD return and a 10 yard drive last week that resulted in scores, and allowed 51 points. Denver’s defense is #4 in the NFL and #2 in TDs allowed and that will win them games and why they have covered 4 out of 6 spreads. Also, bear in mind Denver beat the Jets on the road throwing for just 60 yards. That is how solid their defense is. Yes they lost their best CB last week, but I do not think New Orleans can exploit that with WR Olave out and a rookie QB. Denver wins.
Sunday NFL
10/19/24
8 Units
#453 / #454 Seattle / Atlanta (OVER 51) -110
This should be a shootout. Opened at 47.5 and shot up to 51 for a reason. Seattle’s defense is bad, and their pass defense is deplorable. They allowed the Giants offense 29 in their own house, and the G-Men are horrific on offense. Brock Purdy just threw all over them like he was in a high school scrimmage Monday Night. They have given up 107 points in 3 games. Short week and travel for the Seahawks and an early kickoff PST for them.
Atlanta is #6 in the NFL in passing yards and last week they threw all over the Panthers defense and spread it around. Cousins is a good QB and his accuracy has improved as the season has grown. In week 5 remember Cousins threw for over 500 yards. He should have a field day against this banged up defense. His Prop is 264 yards for this game.
Atlanta is not good at stopping the run and Seattle is loaded at RB, and when that works, that opens up play action passing and decreases blitzes and gives Smith time for big plays. Smith has big play WR’s at his disposal and if not under pressure they will make plays. Smith’s passing prop for this game is 259 yards.
Anyone see a 17-14 defensive battle here? Me neither. Play the Over.
4 Units
#468 LA Rams (-6.5) over Las Vegas *4 EST
The Rams should win by double digits here. The Raiders are a dumpster fire and just traded away their best player on offense in WR Adams. The Raiders have lost their last 2 games by a combined score of 66-31, and also bear in mind they lost to the deplorable Panthers at home by double digits as well. The Rams off a bye week and really nothing to brag about, but off a bye week at home against one of the worst teams in the NFL, and a field where they beat San Fran on this year, I think LA gets much needed win with the better QB on their home field.
2 Team 6 Point Teaser (-120) *1 EST
3 Units
Tease #470 Washington DOWN to (-2) and Tease #463 Detroit UP to (+7.5)
Monday Night Football
10/20/24
4 Units
#477 LA Chargers FIRST HALF LINE (-0.5) over Arizona
Arizona is a poor starting NFL team. The LA Chargers are not and they get it going right out of the gate. The Cards have trailed at halftime by double digits in 4 straight games and have allowed no less than 17 points by halftime in 4 straight games. The Chargers are getting healthier as well and I expect them to win this game and for sure be up at halftime. The Cards seem to dig a hole and then have late rallies, and that will not work against a well-coached team and LA is simply better across the board.
Vernon Croy
6-Units - #311 Denver -3-110 over New Orleans (Thursday, October 17, 2024, 8:15 pm ET)Take Denver ATS as my top NFL pick for Thursday night. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and Denver is hands down the superior team on both sides of the ball coming into this game with the current injuries. Denver has struggled offensively this season however they will get a boost against this New Orleans defense that just gave up 51 points against Tampa Bay. Denver is also the superior team defensively holding opponents to just 16 points per game against them this season which ranks fourth in the NFL. New Orleans has allowed 24.5 points per game this season and although Denver has struggled on third downs converting at just 25%, they will get a boost this week. I do expect a dominant road win from Denver here Thursday and keep in mind Denver did go on the road and beat Tampa Bay who just smoked New Orleans. Play Denver ATS
8-Units - #463-464 Detroit/Minnesota GAME TOTAL UNDER 50.5 -110 (Sunday, October 20, 2024, 1:00 pm ET)
Take Detroit/Minnesota GAME TOTAL UNDER as my top NFL pick for Sunday. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I expect a very low scoring game given the way these two teams match up against each other. This is a Detroit team that just went on the road and held Dallas to just 9 points and they have stepped up defensively at times this season which I believe they will do once again here Sunday. Meanwhile Minnesota is one of the best defensive teams in the NFL holding opponents to just 15.2 points per game against them this season which ranks third defensively. Minnesota also has the most takeaways in the NFL with 11 so far this season and they have also held opponents to just 67.2 rushing yards per game which ranks second defensively in the NFL. Opponents have converted just 29.6% of their third downs against this Detroit defense which ranks second defensively in the NFL. Opponents have also converted just 31% of their third down to games this Minnesota defense which ranks fourth defensively in the NFL. I do expect both teams to step up defensively here Sunday in what I believe will be a much lower scoring game than many might anticipate. Play the UNDER
6-Units - #475 Baltimore -3.5-110 over Tampa Bay (Monday, October 21, 2024, 8:15 pm ET)
Take Baltimore ATS as my top NFL pick for Monday night. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I really like Baltimore on the road in this spot here Monday. This is a Tampa Bay team that just put up 51 points against New Orleans and I feel like this is a very bad spot for them here Monday night. Meanwhile Baltimore is coming off a close 7-point victory at home against Washington and they have rattled off 4 straight wins after dropping their first two games of the season. This Baltimore team is absolutely stacked offensively and they will have tremendous success on the ground against this Tampa Bay defense that has allowed 113.3 rushing yards per game this season. Baltimore has converted 51.5% of their third downs this season and I believe they will get a blowout victory on the road here Monday. Play Baltimore ATS
Scott Spreitzer
4-Unit Play: Take 311 Broncos -3 over Saints (8:15 p.m., Thursday, Oct. 17)Spencer Rattler is getting thrown into the fire before he’s ready as far as I’m concerned but Derek Carr is out and so is part-time QB / TE Taysom Hill. Rattler’s 22 of 40 with a TD and two picks in his rookie season and rarely throws a pass beyond 10 yards. His team is a walking MASH unit, especially up front on offense. Denver is top-five against the pass on defense and while the offense is also led by a rookie, Bo Nix is taking care of the football, throwing just one pick in his last four games (five TD passes). Denver has won three of four and all three losses on the season came by one score. And finally, the battered and bruised Saints are playing their third game in 11 days. I’m laying the points with the Broncos on Thursday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
3-Unit 2-Team 6-Point teaser -120: 461 Dolphins +9 to 463 Lions +8 (1 p.m., Sunday, October 20)
I do believe the Colts are making a mistake by sitting Joe Flacco and playing Anthony Richardson. Miami has played a decent brand of defense for the most part and they’ve had a week off to prepare for Indy’s pedestrian offense. More importantly, the Miami offensive coaches got one more week to prep QB Ty Huntley in case he starts this week and this will be his third game at the controls. He and the Miami offense will face one of the worst defenses in the league and I’m betting HC Mike McDaniel will have the unit ready to go. I’m teasing the Dolphins to 9.
The second half of the play is on the Lions. Detroit has held opponents to 6.3 yards per pass with seven INTs and just four TDs allowed. They lost Aiden Hutchinson to injury but I’m betting they’ll pick up the slack, especially at the teaser price. The Lions’ offense is outstanding and the Vikings’ pass defense can be had, ranked 30th in yards allowed per game. OC Ben Johnson can take advantage with his healthy offense. I’m teasing the Dolphins to the Lions. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
7-Unit Play: Take 473 Jets -2 over Steelers (8:20 p.m., Sunday, October 20)
Davante Adams is a New York Jet. Aaron Rodgers is happy. When Aaron Rodgers is happy, I like betting on the veteran QB. Obviously, making a bet on New York goes far beyond Rodgers being happy. Analyst Greg Cosell put it best when he said Adams brings a short side of the field, boundary receiver, who wins one-on-one matchups. And he’s right because that’s something Mike Williams could not do at this point of his career. Adams’ presence also makes Garrett Wilson’s quickness more valuable. This is a much better offense for Rodgers to deal with and he did make some high level throws against Buffalo with less talent around him. Pittsburgh is likely switching to Russell Wilson this week and whether he gets more snaps than Fields or not, I’m not a fan of either. The Steelers are hoping Wilson gives the offense a better intermediate passing game but Russ hasn’t looked capable in several years. Over half the tickets have been written on Pittsburgh as I type this yet the market has made its move, making this a bit of a Joes (Pitt) vs Pros (NYJ) play. NFL favorites off a home loss with a losing record have won 53 of the last 68 games and have done so by a TD on average. I’m betting the Jets extend the run. I’m laying the points with the Jets on Sunday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
2-Unit Play: Take 476 Buccaneers +3.5 over Ravens (8:15 p.m., Monday, Oct. 21)
The Buccaneers can run, pass, and slow opposing ground games with Vita Vea clogging the middle. They have one of the strongest arms in the league in Baker Mayfield and he’s completed 71% of his passes for nearly eight yards per pass. Baltimore’s pass defense leaves a lot to be desired. They’re 31st in passing yards allowed per game and 27th in passing EPA allowed. I expect Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to put a lot of pressure on the Ravens’ struggling secondary. Tampa Bay is off the blowout win over New Orleans. It’s worth noting that in non-conference games, teams off a road win against a division opponent are 5-0 this season and 66-22 long term, winning outright by an average margin of 5 ppg. The average margin is obviously more than eight points away from this line. Finally, Lamar Jackson has covered just 8 of 26 when favored by more than a FG. I’m taking the points with the Buccaneers. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
August Young
6-Unit Play - Take #311 Denver Broncos -135 (ML) over New Orleans Saints (10/17 @ 8:15PM EST) Denver have been the better team this season when looking at the numbers. The Saints are -0.8 in ypp margin and are expected to be without Derek Carr. Spencer Rattler looked (ok?) vs. the Buccaneers, but we still have him ranked significantly lower in our QB ratings compared to Bo Nix. These are two teams trending in opposite directions, and we show ample value on the Denver side. This is a big motivation spot as well for Sean Payton in a return to New Orleans.7-Unit Play - Take #453 Seattle Seahawks +3 -110 over Atlanta Falcons (10/20 @ 1:00PM EST) Everyone loves Atlanta. However, they have had some pretty fraudulent wins in our opinion. This is about as good a buy-low, sell-high spot on these two teams that you can find outside of betting on the garbage of the league. They have the extra prep time for this one after three-straight losses (although nothing wrong with coming up short vs. Detroit and San Francisco). We should also note that teams with a 20% or worse ATS record from Week 6 are 115-66 ATS for a +23% ROI when listed as dogs. This improves to a 69% ATS win rate when facing an opponent with a winning record. We show ample value on Seattle at 3 or higher.
Strike Point Sports
4-Unit Play. Take #453 Seattle (+3) over Atlanta (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 20)2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 51 Seattle at Atlanta (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 20)
I really like Seattle in this spot. The Seahawks were in a brutal spot last week versus the 49ers as they were playing their third game in 11 days. Seattle has now had extra time to prepare, heal, and rest up to play a Falcons team that is on cloud nine after taking down three straight NFC South opponents. Atlanta was my top NFL play last weekend as they dismantled the Panthers, but I am on the opposite side of the fence this weekend. The Seahawks as desperate as they have lost three games in a row, and they need to get back on track. I just don’t like the Falcons in the favorite role as they are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as chalk. Give me the points here.
3-Unit Play. Take #457 Cincinnati (-6) over Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 20)
I feel like I do this every single season, and it works in my favor. At some point during the NFL season, I jump on the Bengals bandwagon, and I take them for a month straight. Cincinnati has looked different the last few weekends. Yes, they lost to Baltimore in a shootout, and then played a knock down drag out game with the Giants the following weekend, but they seemed to show a sense of urgency, in two completely different styles. I like the Bengals here as the Browns just stink. Cincinnati is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six trips to Cleveland and have covered 14 of their last 19 versus the Browns.
6-Unit Play. Take #474 Pittsburgh (+2) over New York Jets (8:20 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 20)
I firmly believe Aaron Rodgers is one of the most overrated quarterbacks in NFL history. Yes, his stats are amazing, but the guy just loses big games, especially late in his career. The Jets are in disarray, and a lot of it is because of the drama that follows this guy around. New York going out and getting Davante Adams is just making a move to make an old, washed-up quarterback happy. This move is not going to make it, so Rodgers is “back,” it’s just going to make it even more fun to watch when they lose. The Steelers are the play here as they were favored originally, but the addition of Adams has moved the line three full points. No thank you. Mike Tomlin and the Steelers just win close games as they are 14-4 straight up in their last 18 one-score games. This is absolutely a public line and I’m not buying it. This is going to be a defensive battle even though the Jets have plenty of offensive weapons. The Steelers win the turnover battle night in and night out, as they are +7 in turnover margin while the Jets are -1, and that will be the difference here. Take the home team in this big primetime game.
Best of Luck – Strike Point Sports
Jason Sharpe
Sunday October 20th 2024-NFL-
5 Unit Play Take #453 Seattle +3 over Atlanta (1:00pm est):
Seattle started out the season 3-0 but then faced a brutal three game stretch of games over 11 days and dropped all three of those games. The Seahawks were also dealing with a ton of injuries during this time which made things even more difficult for them and they are now getting healthy as they had extra time to prepare for this game with their last contest being on a Thursday night. Road underdogs in the NFL following a three game losing streak tend to cover the spread in their next game nearly 60% of the time. Atlanta is 4-2 on the season but that's been a bit of a fluke as their recent wins over New Orleans and Tampa Bay were both games they probably should have lost. This is also a tough spot for the Falcons coming off playing three straight divisional foes and two of their next three contests are once again inside the NFC South. These teams appear to me to be much closer to even and there's little to no home field edge for the Falcons.
Take Seattle plus the points.
4 Unit Play Take #461 Miami +3 over Indianapolis (1:00pm est):
Miami quarterback Tyler Huntley was rushed into action and finally has had a chance to catch up as the Dolphins come in off their bye week and have had two weeks to prepare for this game. There's a lot of offensive talent on this Dolphins team and I think we see that finally put to use here on the fast indoor track. Indianapolis is likely going back to starting quarterback Anthony Richardson which to me is a downgrade for the Colts. The Colts look to have quite a few injuries right now and asking them to win by margin seems a bit much in this matchup.
Take Miami plus the points.
4 Unit Play Take #472 San Francisco -1.5 over Kansas City (4:25pm est):
Big Super Bowl revenge spot here for a San Francisco team finally starting to click. The Niners dealt with some weird issues early on and cause of that dropped a couple game they probably shouldn't have and come into this game 3-3 and desperate for a win. Keep in mind the spread between these two teams in the Super Bowl last year was basically the same as it is here but the big difference is the fact this game is being played in San Francisco. Kansas City is off to a 5-0 start to the season but they haven't looked special. In fact one could make the argument they have played closer to a .500 team early on as their wins over Baltimore, Cincinnati and Atlanta very easily could have flipped and their win over the LA Chargers was a game the Chargers were without both starting tackles yet LA nearly beat them. KC did hammer New Orleans last time out but that not overly impressive considering what we've seen recently from the Saints.
Take San Francisco in this one.
3 Unit Play Take #473 New York Jets -135 (moneyline) over Pittsburgh (8:20pm):
Looking more and more like Pittsburgh will be changing quarterbacks in this one despite coming into this game with a 4-2 record. The Steelers aren't nearly as good as their overall record though and I thought they were exposed in a big way two weeks ago when they were outplayed at home by a very average Dallas Cowboys team. The New York Jets lost last week at home to Buffalo but I like some of the things they did in that game with all the changes made on their offense. They also added a big time wide receiver to the mix this week which should only make them better going forward.
Take New York Jets on the moneyline in this one.
Monday October 21st 2024-
7 Unit Play Take #476 Tampa Bay +3.5 over Baltimore (8:15pm est):
Over the past four season Baltimore with Lamar Jackson has been a totally different team as an underdog dog going 7-1 against the spread compared to a 7-19 overall when a favorite of -3.5 and higher. Tampa Bay is quietly been a very solid team this season as they come into this game 4-2 overall but they very easily could be 5-1 with their loss to Atlanta a few week ago being a fluke. The Bucs are also finally starting to get healthy on the defensive side of the football after dealing with a ton of injuries early on this year and their offense has been one of the best in the entire NFL this season. Even if the Bucs lose this game the backdoor cover is wide open with this offense especially going up against a Ravens team that tends to get conservative late in games and take their foot off the gas.
Play Tampa Bay plus the points.
Thank you and good luck,
Jason Sharpe
Griffin Murphy
6 Unit – Take #453 Seattle Seahawks (+3) over Atlanta Falcons (-110) (1:00p.m, Sunday, October 20th)At this point in the season, the Falcons have a perfect record versus teams from the NFC South, with a perfect 3-0 record. The team is currently in first place in its division with a record of 4-2 for the season. Take on the Seattle Seahawks, who are currently in second place in the NFC West division with a record of 3-3. They suffered a challenging loss to the San Francisco 49ers the week. During the first three games of the season, they had a perfect record. However, since then, they have struggled and are currently at a record of.500 heading into Week 7 of the NFL season. Although there is no doubt that the Seahawks are not as excellent as we saw them in the first three games, it is also true that they are not as poor of a club as they appeared to be playing in the previous three weeks. Across all categories, the Falcons defense has consistently ranked near the bottom. In the National Football League, their third-down conversion rate ranks 31st. The Seahawks seem poised to exploit the Falcons' secondary, as DK poses a significant threat to the deep ball in their offensive scheme. By yards after reception, DK is one of the top wide receivers, if not the best. This week is going to be a test for the defense that the Atlanta Falcons have been playing. Seattle's attack operates at a rapid tempo. Based on my observations, I believe that Geno and the Seahawks' attack could pose a significant threat to the Atlanta Falcons' defense. Over the last six games, the Seattle Seahawks have won five games and lost one against the Atlanta Falcons. It is my expectation that this game will be quite tight. Despite Seattle's current three-game losing streak, I believe they will break it today. However, I prefer to bet with caution on the road, as I believe this game will come down to the final drive. Let's go the safe route and cover with a field goal. In this clash between the Seattle Seahawks and the Atlanta Falcons, the Seahawks are the play with a spread of three.
Take #453 Seattle Seahawks (+3) over Atlanta Falcons (-110)
3 Unit Play - Take #470 Washington (-8) Over Carolina. (4:05p.m, Sunday, October 20th)
Washington comes into this game with a strong 4-2 record despite their most recent loss to Baltimore in a 30-23 final. Washington played arguably one of the best teams in football last week and gave them a true run for their money. The public is all over how electrifying Jayden Daniels is in the pocket and how well this Washington offense is run. Where the public is not showing enough love is on the defensive side. Prior to Baltimore, Washington dealt with Cleveland and Arizona. Washington held both of these two clubs to under 2 touchdowns in both of these games. Arizona is no joke, especially on the offensive side with Connor in the backfield. On the road, Washington held Arizona to 115 passing yards, 181 rushing yards, and just 296 total yards of offense. Carolina is now 1-5 on the season; they just allowed 38 points to Atlanta on Sunday, and Andy Dalton tossed for another 2 interceptions in this game. Turnovers have been detrimental for Carolina for a long time now, and I do not see it changing against an aggressive club like Washington. Carolina is 32nd in the NFL when it comes to points allowed per game, 30th against the rush and 23rd against the pass. Washington is presently 7th in the NFL in total yards of offense, 5th in rushing yards per game, and 2nd when it comes to 3rd down conversions. I expect a whiplash here out of Washington, as they should beat this brutal Carolina club by at least two touchdowns.
Take #470 Washington (-8) Over Carolina.
Griffin Murphy
2 Unit – Take #472 San Francisco 49ers Moneyline (-120) over Kansas City Chiefs (4:25p.m, Sunday, October 20th)
This week will see the Super Bowl rematch. Against the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs. Chief’s will be traveling to San Francisco. The championship game from the previous season will reoccur. The team that won the Super Bowl last year will be well rested because they are coming off of a bye week. Despite the fact that the 49ers have not had a flawless season up to this point, they played like their old selves last week when they defeated the Seattle Seahawks by a score of 36-24 in Week 6. We are all aware that in order for the Kansas City Chiefs team to get off to a flawless start in this season, they required a little bit of luck to go their way. However, they will face the most challenging test of the season thus far. For the San Francisco 49ers, this defense is dominant. Despite the 49ers' poor record, Brock Purdy has been an outstanding player for the team. This year, Purdy has actually been more successful than Mahomes. He currently leads the league in passing yards and yards per attempt. The 49ers offense ranks second in the entire National Football League. Without a doubt, these games are always a shootout. There is no doubt about that. The manner in which this defense performed the previous week, however, leads me to believe that Mahomes is in for a real treat this Sunday. Rice will not be able to play, especially without his number one wide receiver. During the course of this season, the 49ers team is finally beginning to reach their full potential and will begin to win games. This offense is still looking and playing as if McCaffrey is still in the lineup, despite the fact that he has not yet played this year. In spite of the fact that I believe this game will be quite close, I believe that San Francisco's defense will ultimately be able to shut down Patty Homes and win the game at home this time. This outcome will lead to the Kansas City Chiefs losing for the first time this season on Sunday. You should bet on the San Francisco 49ers to emerge victorious in this matchup.
Take #472 San Francisco 49ers Moneyline (-120) over Kansas City Chiefs.
Amal Shah
4-Unit Play Take #453 Seattle Seahawks +3 over Atlanta Falcons (1:00 p.m., Sunday, October 20)While the Seattle defense has struggled at times, their passing game has thrived. They are #1 in passing offense in the NFL and get to play in a dome. They also face a defense that is 2nd worst in the league on 3rd down. Seattle should have the edge in this game with their best unit against Atlanta’s worst unit. Take a Seattle on the road plus 3, vs a team that has been very competitive, but also very fortunate. Seattle +3 is the play here,
4-Unit Play Take #456 Buffalo Bills -9.5 over Tennessee Titans (1:00 p.m., Sunday, October 20)
Tennessee has one of the worst offenses in the game currently. They are 31st in total offense and 31st in passing offense. They are 30th on 3rd down conversions. Will Levis has 7 INTs this season already. This Buffalo team is coming of a big division will. Josh Allen has zero INTs so far this year. Buffalo should be able to move the ball against a stout Tennessee and have some short field opportunities in this game. Take Buffalo -9.5 at home to cover
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