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Last Release of Expert NFL Picks from our handicappers.
Just so the public knows we are always transparent and honest with our reporting, in this spot we will list all of the previous weeks NFL football picks and analysis.
This page will be updated each Thursday at 5AM Eastern.
Get free NFL Picks including expert parlays picks for betting NFL games this week against the spread.
Doc's Sports
5 Unit Play. Take #412 Cincinnati Bengals -3 over Denver Broncos (4:30p.m., Saturday, December 28 NFLN) The league wants drama for week 18, and for that to occur the Bengals need to win this game. Joe Burrow is 9-3 ATS (1 push) in his last 13 games against AFC West teams, including winning 5 straight home games. Denver still has a great chance to make the playoffs, but it will not occur on Saturday. This is a mismatch on offense, especially at the quarterback position, and if the Bengals defense shows up they will win their fourth straight game by double digits.2 Unit Play. Take #426 Minnesota Vikings +1 over Green Bay Packers (4:25p.m., Sunday, December 29 FOX) I am still not sold on the Vikings, but they have a lot more to play for in this game compared to the Packers. Green Bay cannot win the division, earn a bye, or host a game during first two rounds, and thus I feel they will try and get healthy over the next two weeks. If Minnesota wins out they will be the No. 1 seed, and I expect them to do that and set up a winner take all game next week at Detroit. Minnesota just finds way to win, and they are getting the Packers on a short week with possible injuries to the wide receiver group.
Craig Trapp had no picks
Robert Ferringo
THURSDAY NFL SELECTIONS6-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 42.0 Seattle at Chicago (8 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 26)
This Bears defense has gone off the rails. Matt Eberflus was a loser and needed to go. But one thing the guy did know was defense. He was the play caller on that side of the ball and there has been a noticeable decline since his firing, with the Bears allowing an average of 34 points per game in their last three. I don't think it is going to be much better here against a potent Seattle offense. I also think the Bears offense has been much better than its recent scoring numbers suggest. They have played an absolutely brutal schedule over the last six weeks, facing several of the best defenses in the NFL. They've been good for around 17 points per game but I think they are going to top that. Seattle does a lot of similar things, defensively, as Minnesota, a team that the Bears have seen twice in the last month. The Bears have played five straight games with 42 or more points and Seattle has played four straight. I see a tight game tonight with both teams in the 20's and this one will get 'over'.
1-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #406 Chicago (+11.5) over Seattle (8 p.m.) AND Take ‘Over’ 35.0 Seattle at Chicago (8 p.m.)
NFL SELECTIONS
3-Unit Play. Take #416 L.A. Rams (-6.5) over Arizona (8 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 28)
Arizona is eliminated from the postseason and I am really wondering what their motivation level is going to be like for this game. They have lost four of five and it is another late-season collapse for this franchise (and Kyler Murray). The Rams are going the other way. They have won eight of 10 and are a team no one will want to play in January. They’ve won four in a row, including wins over the 49ers and Bills, and I think they will stay hot.
2-Unit Play. Take #409 Indianapolis (-7.5) over N.Y. Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 29)
This Giants team is done. They are in the tank. The Giants want the No. 1 overall pick in the draft and they have the pole position for it. They just have to lose out, which won’t be a problem for one of the worst rosters in the NFL. The Giants have the second-worst rush defense in the NFL and that plays right into the strength of this Colts team. Indy’s losses over the last three months have all come against playoff teams. I don’t love laying points with Anthony Richardson. And the Colts haven’t exactly rolled over the dregs that they have played. But I just think this Giants team is so bad that I don’t see any other outcome but Indy rolling over New York with its running game.
8-Unit Play. Take #414 Washington (-4) over Atlanta (8 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 29)
Note: This is my NFL Game of the Year.
I wasn’t as enamored with Michael Penix Jr. as everyone else was, apparently. He threw the ball well. But his stat line – 202 passing yards, zero touchdowns, one interception – looked an awful lot like the ones that got Kirk Cousins benched. That start for Penix came at home against the worst team in the NFL. He also benefited from two pick-sixes, another turnover, and 103 total yards and two touchdowns from Bijan Robinson. With less than two minutes left in the first half it was just 10-7 Atlanta and the touchdown was one of the pick-sixes. I think that Penix is going to have a much harder time this week. He is a rookie quarterback making his first road start. And now he’s going up against a playoff team. Washington needs one more win to lock up its first postseason berth since 2020. The Commanders won last week despite five turnovers and the fact that they were facing an Eagles team that had been dominating the league during a 10-game winning streak. I think that this Washington team is going to be sky high for this game. Washington is No. 5 in the NFL in total offense and No. 8 in total defense. The Commanders are No. 4 in the league in passing defense and I think they are going to be able to do some things to frustrate and confuse Penix, a guy that was thrown into the middle of a playoff race. The Falcons had some early season comeback wins that were the direct result of Cousins’ savvy, experience and clutch plays, with wins over the Eagles, Saints and Bucs coming by a combined nine points with one OT win. I just don’t think that this team is that good.
Another big motivating factor for Washington here is Dan Quinn. The Commanders coach used to be the head coach in Atlanta before getting fired. You know he is going to want to stick it to his old team. And there are still plenty of guys on that Falcons roster that Quinn coached or scouted.
Washington’s offense has been really, really good at home. They have scored 32.8 points per game in their last four home games and I just don’t think the Falcons can keep up with that. Atlanta has played the league’s two worst teams the last two weeks, the Raiders and Giants, and they haven’t been that impressive against either of them. This same Falcons team has been bad on the road over the last month, getting trucked by the Vikings and Broncos by a combined 80-27 and losing to a horrible Saints team and barely beating a horrible Vegas team. This is their third road game in 21 days over four weeks and their fifth road game in their last seven games.
Washington is the better team. They have the better quarterback. They have the motivation edge trying to punch their playoff ticket and with their coach going up against his old team. Atlanta has a rookie quarterback making his second career start and first road start against a very good pass defense. The Falcons are a bad road team that has become overvalued because of recent games against the worst teams in the league. This is a modest spread and as long as the Commanders don’t let Bijan go bonkers they should have too much firepower.
1-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #424 Tampa Bay (-1) over Carolina (1 p.m.) AND Take #430 Cleveland (+13.5) over Miami (4 p.m.)
Carpe diem. Good luck.
Arun Shiva (Indian Cowboy)
7-Unit Play. #424. Take Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8 over Carolina Panthers (Sunday @ 1pm est)We roll with the Buccaneers here for this week and we know that the Bucs barely got past the Panthers the first time around winning 23-20 in overtime. And, sure the Panthers have revenge and come in off the big win against Arizona 36-30 at home. But, they were able to rush for around 243 yards on the poor Arizona defense. The Cowboys by the way last week ran for less than 40 yards on these Bucs. So, the only way that Carolina can win is if Bryce throws for a lot of yards and he threw for 156 yards last week and now he has to face an angry and ticked off Bucs team who come off a loss to the Cowboys. Tampa Bay had beat the Giants, Carolina, Vegas and routed the Chargers 40-17 last game and they just had a massive let down, they have seen the Falcons take control of the division, they know Atlanta has a tough game at Washington and they need to put pressure on the Falcons with a big win. We like Tampa Bay to win and win big here this week as they boucnce-back.
Raphael Esparza (VSI)
NFL WEEK #173 Unit Play. Take #416 LA Rams -6.5 over Arizona (8:15p.m., Saturday December 28 NFL Network)
The last game on Saturday night in the NFL and I see the offense of the LA Rams at home being too much for the Cardinals. Arizona has dropped 4 out 5 and that one game was against the Patriots at home. The Rams have won 4-Straight coming into this home game and the last time we saw them at home they beat Buffalo 44-42. Let’s also throw in that the Rams are 10-2 ATS against division opponents.
4 Unit Play. Take #426 Minnesota +1 over Green Bay (4:25p.m., Sunday December 29 FOX)
What an NFC North Division battle Sunday late afternoon as the Green Bay Packers make a trip to Minnesota to play the Vikings. The Vikings are 6-1 at home this season and their only loss was to the division leader the Detroit Lions 31-29. The Packers have covered back-to-back road games but this game at US Bank Stadium will be different, and I see the Vikings winning this division home game.
6 Unit Play. Take #414 Washington -4 over Atlanta (8:20p.m., Sunday December 29 CBS)
We all remember what happen last week at Northwest Stadium as Washington came from behind to beat the Eagles 36-33 and Jayden Daniels was nothing but brilliant in that game. I know rookie QB Michael Penix won his first game for the Atlanta Falcons but let’s face it he beat the NY Giants. The Falcons have dropped 4 out 6 games and those back-to-back wins were against the Raiders and Giants. Momentum will be the key to the Commanders win Sunday night and I see Daniels outplaying Penix. Washington is 6-2 ATS last 8 home games and the Falcons are 1-6 ATS as an underdog.
Tony George
College Football12/27/24 Friday
6 Units
#234 Navy (+3) over Oklahoma *12 Noon EST
Opt outs – portal players – Oklahoma has as many of them out as any team in College Football. I read 26 or now 27 players in all. This is new dynamic in picking bowl winners now -who has what! There is a reason service schools like Navy and ect have great bowl records – no one leaves.
OU is without their QB, best WR and TE and 2 leading tacklers. Navy just hammered ranked Army and looked good doing it, and their QB is 100% healthy again which is huge. I expect a Navy win against a team who won 1 away game all year and it was a total sham they even won that game. Navy rolls em. Did I mention the name of the Bowl is Armed Forces?
4 Units
#237 Syracuse FIRST HALF (-10) over Washington St *3:30 EST
There were rumor’s WSU was scrambling to find 22+ players and a coaching staff to even participate. A Mass exodus in Spokane. This team is in total disarray. Entire crux of the coaching staff is gone; their best player QB Mateer (75% of their offense) is on his way to Oklahoma with his OC as well. They have non starters everywhere getting plugged in here. Syracuse brings a full roster and QB McCord will have a field day here. BLOWOUT.
College Football
Saturday 12/28/24
3 Units
#244 Nebraska *First Half (-2.5) over Boston College *Noon EST
The Huskers are fired up for this Bowl Game and I expect them to come out of the gate well, and Dana Holgerson as OC is a good thing for them. First bowl game since 2016 for the Huskers. NU fades late in games and has big issues closing them out but they do play well out of the gate. The offense is better than average in terms of talent and with added time to prep against an average BC team, I like their chances of being up 3-7 points in the first half but do not trust them at the full number of 4 for the game.
4 Units
#251 East Carolina (+6.5) vs North Carolina *5:45 EST
I like ECU here to possibly win. NC States defense is deplorable and their bowl games are always a bust. ECU made Harrell (who was the interim) head coach and the players responded well to the change mid season and have plenty in the tank to cover this number against a defense who cannot stop as anything. This is just the second bowl game for ECU in the last 10 years and they are damn glad to be here, NC State not so much.
College Football
Tuesday 12/31/24
4 Units
#264 Illinois (+9.5) over South Carolina *3 EST
The Gamecocks played well in big monents this year and also gave some games away. Illinois with added time to prep here and this is a good Illinois team and a well coached one. Both teams were scoring like crazy at the end of the season. Illinois has 2 double digit losses all year to Oregon and Penn State and actually that Penn State game Illinois could have won, I will gladly grab the big points here.
3 Units
#268 Boise State (+11) over Penn State *7:30 EST
Do we expect Franklin, head coach at Penn State to win 2 big games in a row? Boise is no joke, their defense is way underrated here and with the best RB in football and a big time OL, they can make this ugly for Penn State. I think on a neutral field and not at Happy Valley Boise St covers this. Boise played Oregon to a 3 point game at Oregon, something Penn State could not do.
College Football
Wednesday 1/1/25
5 Units
#273 Notre Dame (+2) over Georgia *8:45 EST
No QB Beck for Georgia is a HUGE deal. The Irish are at full strength and off a convincing win against Indiana. Yes, the Bulldogs played in the SEC and beat Texas Twice, but without a starting QB in this game, I will take the Irish to win it. That injury is HUGE. Georgia is 1-9 ATS as a favorite their last 10 times, and bear in mind no one throws on ND very well at all, ranked #4 in CFB on pass defense. I know Georgia is used to the spotlight and ND fails in big moments, but I think the script flips here as ND is a solid team.
NFL
Thursday - 12/26/24
4 Units
#405 Seattle *First Half (-2.5) over Chicago *8:15 EST
Seattle beats up bad teams and loses to good ones. Their DL should eat up a bad OL of the Bears and QB Williams will be on the run trying to throw it, which results in nothing good for the Bears. Seattle is in a dog fight for the division here and will show up, ears pinned back. Add in the fact that under interim head coach Brown, all games he has coached as head coach (none of which the Bears were properly prepared) the Bears have never lead at halftime and been behind at the half in all those games by a minimum of 13 points each - WOW. Play the first half line under the fall number of 3.
NFL
Saturday 12/28/24
4 Units
#416 LA Rams (-6.5) over Arizona *8:15 EST
Can Arizona play spoiler here after dashing all their hopes against pathetic Carolina and Byrce Young at QB beating them? No. LA is playing for the division title and as I write this, I do not know the outcome of the Seattle Game on Thursday – but either way this game can damn near clinch it for LA. Matt Stafford and his band of merry men at WR are far more than what the Panthers had, and Carolina put up 36 on the Cards who have to be deflated. Lay it.
NFL
Sunday 12/29/24
7 Units
#425 Green Bay (PK) over Minnesota *4:20 EST
Green Bay is the better team, avenging a loss, at their peak performance level against better competition the past 6 weeks. Love is the better QB. I know Minny is a 2-loss team at home against a division rival, but I think Green Bay is the better team, and coasted in their last game. Minny has some issues and inconsistency on both sides of the ball, and Green Bay is dialed in. GB was not a 100% healthy in the first meeting and put up 465 yards on offense and outgained Minny and lost by 2. Revenge is sweet.
3 Units
#419 Tennessee (+1) over Jacksonville *1 EST
If you lose to Jax twice in a year, you may as well shut down the franchise. A 10-6 loss at home the last game, but I KNOW Tennessee has the better defense and the Jags with a lame duck head coach and one of the worst defenses known to man, and the Raiders just beat them. Rudolph at QB was better than Levis, and I think Tennessee exacts revenge and gets the win, and they put up a hell of a fight against a decent Indy team last week.
3 Units
#423 / #424 Carolina / Tampa Bay (OVER 48.5) *1 EST
7 out of the last 10 meetings have shot over the total including the first meeting this year (4 ). TB has some serious issues on defense and Dallas cut through them like a hot knife on butter. A must win game for the Bucs here and Carolina is putting yup points ansd covering spreads big time. Both teams on 7-3 runs their last 10 games with Overs as well, and Tampa Bay in divisional games average 62 ppg and Carolina average 55 ppg, unreal stat.
NFL
Monday
12/30/24
4 Units
#431 Detroit (-3.5) over San Fran *8:15 EST
This is simple. Detroit lost in the playoffs here last year – revenge is foremost. Secondly – the 49ers have OL issues to counter injury issues for Detroit, and San Fran has managed 17 points or fewer in 5 out of the last 6 weeks (and a few bad defenses in that run they faced) and face an offense that scores 32 ppg. One team going to the playoffs and potentially winning a division, the other team has zero to play for and looked like it last week.
Vernon Croy
7-Unit Play: #406 Chicago +4-110 over Seattle (Thursday, December 26, 2024, 8:15pm ET)Take Chicago ATS as my top NFL pick for Thursday night. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and this line is absolutely ridiculous. I have Chicago winning this game outright at home especially after being embarrassed by Detroit. Now the fact is that the game against Detroit could have easily been much closer than the score indicates. It's also important to note that this is a Chicago team that lost by just 1 point at home against a very good Green Bay team. That same Green Bay team went to Seattle and won that game by 17 points. Chicago also has a close three-point loss at Detroit, and a three-point loss at home against Minnesota. This is a hungry Chicago team having dropped 9th straight games. All the pressure is on Seattle in this game as they still have a slight chance to make the playoffs. Seattle is coming off back-to-back home losses and yes they have played better on the road than at home this season however wins against Arizona and against the Jets are not impressive since they are bad teams. This is a pride game for Chicago and I look for them to get the victory at home here tonight as this team is much better than their record indicates. This Seattle team has averaged just 91.9 rushing yards per game this season and I was actually very impressed with the way Williams played against Detroit putting up 334 passing yards with two touchdowns which was just two yards less than what Goff did. Play Chicago ATS as we move to 8-3 the last 11 weeks in TNF.
6-Unit Play: #407–408 Los Angeles/New England GAME TOTAL UNDER 42.5-110 (Saturday, December 28, 2024, 1:00pm ET)
Take Los Angeles / New England GAME TOTAL UNDER as my top NFL pick for Saturday. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I expect a very low scoring game here given the way these two teams match up against each other. The last time these two teams met last season they put up just six total points and I do expect Los Angeles to step up defensively again like they did last season against New England. Los Angeles has averaged just 307.3 yards per game this season and 21.9 points per game. Meanwhile New England has averaged just 298 yards per game this season and 17.3 points per game. Play the UNDER
6-Unit Play: #424 Tampa Bay -8-110 over Carolina (Sunday, December 29, 2024, 1:00pm ET)
Take Tampa Bay ATS as my top NFL pick for Sunday. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I have Tampa Bay winning this game by 14+ points at home. Obviously, this is a must-win game for Tampa Bay and they are hands down the superior team at home. Carolina is coming off an upset victory against Arizona and yes, these two teams met already once this season with Tampa Bay winning that game by three points on the road in overtime. Tampa Bay did not play a great game although they did dominate the time of possession by almost 12 minutes. Tampa Bay has converted 48.4% of their third downs this season and Carolina's opponents have converted 47.7% of their third downs against them this season. Play Tampa Bay ATS
5-Unit Play: #431–432 Detroit/San Francisco GAME TOTAL OVER 50.5-110 (Monday, December 30, 2024, 8:15pm ET)
Take Detroit/San Francisco GAME TOTAL OVER as my top NFL pick for Monday night. I expect to see a very high scoring game given the way these two teams match up against each other. Keep in mind the last three meetings between these two teams including last season went over 57 total points. Last season these two teams put up 75 total points. This is also a San Francisco team that looks to get going offensively this week after putting up just 17 points at Miami and six points the week before that. Play the OVER.
Scott Spreitzer
5-Unit Play: Take 422 Bills -9 over Jets (1 p.m., Sunday, December 29)Buffalo can't catch KC for HFA throughout the playoffs after the Chiefs won on Wednesday. But Buffalo would like to stay ahead of Baltimore, who also won on Wednesday and the Ravens would own the tiebreaker since they beat Buffalo earlier this season. After last week's sluggish outing against the Patriots, I expect to see a strong effort here from the opening kick. The Jets are really banged-up on the offensive line and in the secondary, and Aaron Rodgers is playing through a knee injury. It's also worth noting Davante Adams didn't practice midweek. Buffalo gets an offense it can handle and I'm backing them here. I'm laying the points with the Bills. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
3-Unit Play: Take 425 Packers PK over Vikings (4:25 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 29)
This is a rematch of Minnesota's 31-29 win in Green Bay in week-4. Green Bay had a sluggish start and trailed 28-7 yet almost came back to win the game. Minnesota has won eight in a row but five of the wins came against Chicago (twice), Atlanta (with Cousins), Tennessee, and the Jaguars. The Packers actually out-gained Minnesota by 86 yards in the first meeting but Green Bay was a banged-up team that week and Jordan Love three three picks in the two-point loss. The Packers are 11-4 with the losses coming by two to Minnesota, five to the Eagles, and two losses to Detroit, including one by three points. I'm betting the Packers gain a measure of revenge. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
August Young
7-Unit Play - Take #406 Chicago Bears +4.5 -110 over Seattle Seahawks (12/26 @ 8:15PM EST) Believe it or not; this is the first time in the last ten games that the Seahawks have been favored. There's two things happening there; the bump is deserved based on their performance and the fact they are playing the Chicago Bears - however, everyone is aware of each teams situation and the playoff chase surrounding the Seahawks. If you don't believe they are getting a massive bump in the market from the sportsbooks with all this information publicly known and being bet in to, then I don't know what to tell you. They are overvalued here. First of all; Seattle has 8 wins on the season, but their true win number is 7. Chicago has 4 wins, but their true win number is 6. We also need to acknowledge the Seahawks easy strength of schedule for the most part. Kenneth Walker III has been ruled out here which will limit some of the playbook success based on usage with EPA metrics. Honestly; this number is just out of proportion and is inflated due to public perception. We're not biting and will reverse course as this shouldn't be any higher than 3. We set the true line at 2.5. Big edge.4-Unit Play - Take #425 Green Bay Packers pk -110 over Minnesota Vikings (12/29 @ 4:25PM EST) The Vikings have been extremely fortunate this season, which somehow included winning last week despite being out-gained by 60 yards. The Packers have been the better team from a statistical standpoint and we like them to get the job done here with revenge on their mind.
4-Unit Play - Take #432 San Francisco 49ers +3.5 -115 over Detroit Lions (12/30 @ 8:15PM EST) This has been an unfortunate season for the 49ers who have been eliminated from the playoffs. What's crazy about their 6-9 record is the fact that they rank 2nd best in the league in ypp margin at +1.0. Sometimes variance can kick your ass, and that has been the case here. For comparison; the Lions have a +0.5 ypp margin but are 13-2. Obviously motivational factors are a concern here as Detroit will be seeking revenge from last season while the 49ers don't have much to play for. However, Detroit are absolutely decimated by injuries and are 100% being overvalued in market. FWIW; in database history, late season teams that have won at least 85% of their games that are listed as away favorites are just 33% ATS. Fading such teams would have produced a +27.3% ROI. Value on San Fran.
Strike Point Sports
6-Unit Play. Take #412 Cincinnati (-3) over Denver (4:30 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 28)As I stated the last few weekends, each year I go on a Bengals run because this team just wins and covers games. The Bengals are absolutely better than their record shows and if they had a few more wins Joe Burrow would be in the MVP conversation. The Bengals defense has been very opportunistic as of late and I see that continuing this weekend. The Broncos are a solid team, but I absolutely do not think they are better than Cincinnati. Denver had their game against the Chargers and just gave it away, and that will start the ball rolling downhill for this team. Denver has been a good story this season but this will be another tough pill for them to swallow if they think they are making the playoffs. When the Bengals win they cover, and they are going to do just that.
4-Unit Play. Take #409 Indianapolis (-7.5) over New York Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 29)
Do not overthink this game. The New York Giants could be one of the worst teams in NFL history, and the Colts are fighting for their playoff lives. This Giants team cannot score the football, while Indy has a dynamic rushing attack and a big play passing attack...at times. In the end the Colts can play poorly and still win this game by two touchdowns. The Giants are 4-11 ATS while the Colts are 9-6 ATS. This one is going to be a romp.
Best of Luck - Strike Point Sports
Jason Sharpe
Saturday December 28th 2024-NFL
4 Unit Play Take #415 Arizona +6.5 over Los Angeles Rams (8:15pm est):
This is an inflated point spread between one team (LA Rams) who needs a win versus an opponent (Arizona) who's out of the playoffs. Not much separates these two squads this year as Arizona actually has a +2 point differential despite a 7-8 record on the season compared to the Rams coming in at 9-6 overall but who have a -18 point differential. The Rams come in winners of four straight games but they very easily could have lost any of those contests and three of those four teams are sitting at 6-9 or worse overall on the season. Arizona hammered the Rams in their earlier meeting this year beating them by a 41-10 score. It's always a good idea to look to back a divisional underdog in the NFL as it's been profitable long-term wise.
Take Arizona plus the points in this game.
Sunday December 29th 2024-
7 Unit Play Take #425 Green Bay pick'em over Minnesota (4:25pm est):
I think the Green Bay Packers are very quietly playing as well as any team in the NFL right now. The Packers come into this game winners of 9 of their last 11 games with both of their two losses coming against the Detroit Lions. Green Bay is also a perfect 5-0 against the spread in their last five contests. The Packers did lose to Minnesota earlier this year but their quarterback Jordan Love wasn't healthy at that time and he also threw three interceptions in that game. Green Bay missed two field goals in the 31-29 point defeat and also put up nearly 100 yards more on offense than the Vikings.
Minnesota continues to somehow win games (13-2 on the season and winners of 8 straight) and much of that has had to do with their success in close games as the Vikings are 8-1 this year in games decided by single digits. Just two of those last eight wins came over a team with a winning record and both of those teams are currently barley above .500 at 8-7 overall. Green Bay is the clear cut better team of these two squads in my overall numbers.
Take Green Bay in this game.
3 Unit Play Take #423 Carolina +8 over Tampa Bay (1:00pm est):
Sometimes you will see NFL teams with a 1st year head coach really improve after their bye week late in the season as it looks like the players are finally starting to figure out what they are being taught. We have seen a great example of that with Carolina who for the most part has looked like a totally different team over the last two months, going 6-1 versus the spread in their last eight games overall. The betting markets haven't caught up to how much better this team has been playing of late especially in the underdog role as the Panthers have covered the point spread by an average of more than 8 points per game in their last six games as an underdog.
Take Carolina plus the points.
3 Unit Play Take #413 Atlanta +4 over Washington (8:20pm est):
I feel like we're getting Washington at the top of the betting market for them right now as they won back to back games against two bottom feeders than they lucked into a victory last week over Philadelphia. The Commanders are an average team and now are laying more than a field goal versus another average team and that feels like too much.
There's some upside with Atlanta right now as the Falcons made a change at the quarterback position last week and that worked out well for them. The Falcons are in a battle for a playoff spot so this is a huge game here for them and I think they can keep this one close.
Take Atlanta plus the points.
Thank you and good luck,
Jason Sharpe
Griffin Murphy
4 Unit Play - Take #406 Chicago (+4) Over Seattle. (8:15p.m, Thursday, December 26th)Chicago comes into this game presently holding onto a 9-game losing streak, and despite this game being meaningless for their season, the coaching staff and team are in really hot water and need to pull off a win. We can expect Chicago to take this game seriously with full momentum as if they were in the playoff push based on where they stand right now. Seattle is now 8-7 on the season and has now lost 2 critical matchups in a row against both Green Bay and Minnesota. Seattle still has playoff hopes alive, but it's in a must-win-out sequence. Geno Smith leads the charge for Seattle. Despite Geno’s 3,937 yards passing this season, he still has 7 fumbles in the pocket and has thrown for 15 interceptions. While every metric in the book wants you all over Seattle tonight, here is why we are fading them. Chicago is presently 8th when it comes to turnover differentials, while Seattle is 26th in the NFL. We are aware of Geno Smith turning the ball over, so this metric could be huge in tonight’s game. Seattle also ranks 30th in penalties, which could be critical in tonight’s matchup as Chicago is at home with their fan base behind them, which should drive momentum. Chicago is ranked 13th when it comes to scoring defense; meanwhile, Seattle is 17th in sacks against, which could be pivotal for Chicago tonight. Despite Chicago’s 4-9 record on the season, all four of their wins have come at Soldier Field. Seattle is in a cluster right now after dropping their two biggest games of the season. I expect Chicago to find a way to expose Geno Smith and the pass game tonight, whilst Seattle’s star RB Kenneth Walker will be out tonight. This can cause some heavy disruption; if the run game is weak for Seattle, this will force a straight passing offense. In my case, I expect Chicago to disrupt this Seattle pass game and play stout defense despite their previous three games. This is a sneaky play as the herd is all over Seattle tonight. I would not be surprised if Chicago wins this game outright.
Take #406 Chicago (+4) Over Seattle.
Griffin Murphy
7 Unit Play - Take #425 Green Bay (-110) Over Minnesota. (4:25p.m, Sunday, December 29th)
Green Bay comes into this game 11-4 on the year and 3rd in the NFC North. Minnesota is now 13-2 on the year and 2nd in the NFC North. This game has huge implications for playoff seeding. Minnesota has to deal with Green Bay and close their season down with Detroit, so this game is extremely important here for Minnesota. Green Bay has Minnesota here; this game is followed up by closing the season down against a Chicago Bears team that is presently 4-11 on the season. Green Bay is coming in here with the expectations of a must-win game. Green Bay is now 4-1 in their last 5 games and coming off a 34-0 home win over New Orleans in their most recent contest. Green Bay is an offensive machine. Green Bay is presently 6th in the NFL when it comes to total yards of offense per game, 12th when it comes to the pass game, and 4th on the rush with Josh Jacobs in the backfield having himself a record-breaking season. Minnesota is 20th on the defensive side when it comes to total yards allowed against, 30th against the pass, and 2nd against the rush. Green Bay has proven they can establish the rush against anybody this season. So with Minnesota’s biggest strength coming up against defending the rush, their work could be heavily impacted in this contest. Minnesota has thrived all season long with Sam Darnold and Justin Jefferson. Green Bay is currently 8th in the NFL when it comes to defending the pass and 6th when it comes to points allowed per game, allowing just 19.1 points a game on average. This is an NFC North warzone today, and Green Bay is the better team across the field. Green Bay has a more potent offense; they are very good at establishing the rush and incredible at diversifying the run game into a pass with their star QB, Jordan Love, who has thrown for 3,135 yards, 24 touchdowns, and just 11 picks. This is a spot play. If Green Bay wins this game, they should override Minnesota and take 2nd in the NFC North. Minnesota still has a huge test after Green Bay with their last game on the road against the NFC North division leader, the Detroit Lions. I expect Green Bay to come out firing and take this game straight up.
Take #425 Green Bay (-110) Over Minnesota.
Griffin Murphy
4 Unit Play - Take #413 Atlanta (+4) Over Washington. (8:20p.m, Sunday, December 29th)
Atlanta comes into this game 8-7 on the season and presently on a two-game win streak after tossing the Giants at home on Sunday in a 34-7 final. Michael Penix has taken over at the QB spot for Atlanta and looked very sharp in his first outing. Penix went 21/32 and 240 yards in the air. Michael Penix is a phenomenal QB and did an incredible job last season with Washington. The rookie has the biggest game of his life here on Sunday night primetime. If Atlanta loses this game, they have a 37% chance of making the playoffs. If Atlanta wins this game, they have an 86% chance of locking in a postseason spot. This game is critical. Atlanta is presently 9th in the NFL when it comes to total yards of offense per game, 6th in the pass game, 12th in rushing yards, and 11th when it comes to rushing yards against on the defensive side. Washington has an incredible offense, although they primarily thrive around Jayden Daniels, who is perhaps one of the most slippery QBs in the NFL. Washington has one huge weakness coming into this game, and that is defending the rush. Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson comes into this game with 1,196 yards on the ground, 10 touchdowns, and 0 fumbles. Atlanta is set up with lethal weapons at the WR slot with Drake London and Darnell Mooney. This is another spot play. Washington has Atlanta right now, then they finish their season against a sluggish Dallas Cowboys club. Atlanta has Washington here in a must-win situation, then they finish up their season with Carolina, who is beyond beatable. Atlanta will leave it all out on the field in this primetime matchup, and the world is going to get a chance to see how valuable Michale Penix is as a QB, as I expect him to torch this Washington defense. I love the +4 points here, as this gives us a perfect opportunity to cover this game, even if we lose by a field goal. With that being said, I believe Atlanta can take this game outright, so we are taking the +4 points for insurance with a belief that Atlanta will win this game outright and the extra 4 points as insurance.
Take #413 Atlanta (+4) Over Washington.
Griffin Murphy
Nick Menken
4 Unit: Take #411 Denver Broncos (+3) over Cincinnati Bengals (4:30p.m, Saturday, December 28th)In the National Football League, week 17 will see the Denver Broncos against the Cincinnati Bengals. Both teams are currently pushing for the playoffs. Entering this matchup, both teams hold the third position in their respective divisions. If today were the last day of the season, the Denver Broncos would be in the playoffs. However, these Bengals still have a very low chance of making the playoffs, and in order to have a shot, they need to win. One victory is all that stands between the Broncos and securing a spot in the playoffs. It is a Saturday afternoon game here in Cincinnati, and there is a lot riding on it. A Broncos win on Saturday will eliminate the Beagles, Miami Dolphins, and Indianapolis Colts from the playoffs. Should the Broncos suffer a defeat, they would find themselves in a game against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 18 that they absolutely must win. The Denver Broncos have covered the spread in seven of their previous nine games, largely due to the fact that their defense is ranked tenth in the football league in terms of total yards allowed. On Saturday, the Bengals will not have any passes, despite the fact that they have gotten away with things against a defense that is weaker throughout the course of this season. The Broncos' defense has been performing exceptionally well. Granted, the Chargers were able to come back and win the game on Thursday night by a score of 34-27 over the previous week. They have a couple of extra days to relax and recuperate before this confrontation in Cincinnati. Joe Burrow is doing an outstanding job on the attacking side of the football field. However, the Bengals have struggled with this defense throughout the season. With Joe and this offense, the Broncos will be able to get stops on both of them. The Beagles defense must determine whether they can effectively shut down the Broncos' offense. Simply said, I don't think they are going to do it. The Bengals, along with three other teams, will face elimination from the playoffs during this game. I believe a field goal in the final second will decide this game. Take the Denver Broncos with a three-point advantage over the Cincinnati Bengals.
Take #411 Denver Broncos (+3) over Cincinnati Bengals
Nick Menken
7 Unit: Take #424 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) over Carolina Panthers (1:00p.m, Sunday, December 29th)
Both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Carolina Panthers will be competing against one another in this matchup. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off of a difficult loss to the Dallas Cowboys the previous week, which occurred on a clutch drive that resulted in a fumble. On the other hand, Carolina played spoiler to the Arizona Cardinals and eliminated them from any chance of making the playoffs by a score of 36 to 30 by the end of overtime. At this point, Carolina will have the opportunity to bring the Buccaneers' season to a close with a defeat. This will eliminate any chance of them qualifying for the playoffs. In Dallas, the Buccaneers' offense had a difficult time getting things moving in the process. As a result, they have put themselves in a position where they absolutely have to win this game at home against a Carolina squad that has been playing well as of late. Last week, Baker Mayfield continued to demonstrate his impressive skills by completing 31 of 43 passes for 303 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. On the other hand, this Buccaneers defense is capable of stopping the run and stopping Chuba Hubbard, who is averaging 72.4 yards per game. Bryce Young has been playing well enough to make this possible. The defense of Carolina is the factor that will determine the outcome for us. Especially when it comes to the pass game, they are a significant liability. Baker Mayfield is committed to winning this game and will perform to the best of his abilities. When it comes to the Panthers' secondary, we are going to witness the Buccaneers offense make a spectacular display. Within the context of this contest, they will not be able to stay up with the Buccaneers. In this game, I believe the Buccaneers will prevail by a margin of two touchdowns. It would be beneficial for the Buccaneers to observe the Falcons' performance on Sunday Night Football. Take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8 over the Carolina Panthers.
Take #424 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) over Carolina Panthers
Nick Menken
1 Unit: Take #409 Indianapolis Colts (-7.5) over New York Giants (1:00p.m, Sunday, December 29th)
In Week 17, the Colts will travel to New York to take on the Giants. This clash will take place in New York. The Colts are in need of some assistance in order to qualify for the playoffs. However, the Broncos and Beagles game on Saturday will provide significant insights. If the Broncos emerge victorious on Saturday, they could potentially eliminate the Colts from the playoffs. However, if the Beagles are successful in winning that game, there is still a possibility for them to win. In the previous week, Jonathan Taylor ran for over 200 yards, which led to his dominance against the Titans. Taylor has been a driving force behind the success of the Colts this season, and I anticipate that he will have another significant game against the Giants. Atlanta, on the other hand, thoroughly defeated New York in their most recent game. The Giants have struggled to stop the run all season; now they must stop Taylor. When it comes to rush defense in the National Football League, New York is in the top 10 weakest teams. Furthermore, since Daniel Jones' contract release, the Giants offense has been in disarray. I am confident that the Colts will enter JetLife and dominate the game regardless of the circumstances. If the Broncos are defeated on Saturday, the remaining games will be left up for week 18. In this battle, the Colts are the far superior club, and the final score ought to reflect that fact. In this encounter, the Colts should win by a margin of at least ten points. Rather than the New York Giants, you should bet on the Indianapolis Colts (-7.5).
Indianapolis Colts (-7.5) over New York Giants
Nick Menken
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