by Robert Ferringo - 05/02/2006
I understand that we're a month removed from the Final Four. I know that with the NBA and NHL playoffs, Triple Crown races, NFL Draft, golf, NASCAR, and the start of baseball that there may not be much of a gaming market for college hoops. However, for those of you that don't mind making long-term investments with the possibility of large returns, it's never too early to get a jump on who's going to win next year's championship.
But the march to the Madness begins with one very simple, and very complicated question:
Do I stay or do I go?
I've known pressure in my life. We all have. But not many of us have, at 18-20 years old, had to make the monumental, life-altering, multi-million dollar decision that is thrust upon talented college basketball players.
Do I stay or do I go?
I have trouble choosing between one-percent or two-percent milk. Picking one movie at Blockbuster? I'm a wreck. But these kids - and I don't care what experiences they've had, at 19-years old you still don't know much about anything - now have to chose whether or not to stay in school or head to the NBA.
Do I stay or do I go?
They could stay in school. Have tutors do their work for them and get that degree that was promised to mom/grandma/priest/cousin/dog. Rule the school. Get some more experience and seasoning - maybe add that three-point range. Get the hottest, firmest, most luscious college girls on campus. Sleep until noon, rock some Playstation, and then go do an interview for ESPNU. Rub Dick Vitale's bald dome. One more year to toy with their rivals - and their fans. Maybe cut down the nets.
Do I stay or do I go?
When I say 'head to the NBA', it's not as if they're vacationing in Cabo. By 'head to the NBA' I mean secure the financial future of yourself and your family (if you're smart about it). First-class everything. Say goodbye to your privacy. Stay in the finest hotels in the world. Sign autographs until your forearms are sorer than a 15-year old with free pay-per-view. Free sneakers, tickets and gear. See the world. Make yourself a target for overweight, balding, white reporters. Money. Girls. Cars. Cribs. Live the Dream.
Do I stay or do I go?
Well, this year's crop has made its decision. Saturday was the deadline for NCAA underclassmen to declare themselves eligible for the 2006 NBA Draft. Most of the underclassmen did not sign with an agent, therefore keeping the door open for their return to college and childhood. Here's some snap judgments about the players that declared themselves eligible, and the teams that are most effected by their decisions:
(Odds to win the 2006-07 national championship in parentheses)
BIGGEST NEGATIVE IMPACT
UCLA (11-to-1) - The starting backcourt for the national runners-up, Arron Afflalo and Jordan Farmar, both made themselves eligible for the draft. Neither of the talented sophomores signed with an agent. Farmar has a decent shot of going at the end of the first round, but both players would be best served to return to Pauley Pavilion. UCLA is losing only two of its top eight scorers and will be bolstered by the return of swingman Josh Shipp. They are the class of the West Coast and would be a Top Ten team if their guards return.
Connecticut (13-to-1) - You would think that if Rudy Gay and Josh Boone learned anything this March it would be that maybe they aren't as good as they think they are. Nope. Jim Calhoun is losing a pair of underachievers, along with Marcus Williams. Williams was outstanding in the tourney, and I think he wants to go pro so he can sign that sponsorship deal with Dell laptops.
Iowa State (90-to-1) - The Cyclones may not be a national championship contender for 2006-07, but they could return their top eight scorers and six of their top seven rebounders. That is if their athletic backcourt of Curtis Stinson (19.4 ppg) and Will Blalock (15.4 ppg) make the right decision and return to school. Right now they both have Icelandic Pro League written all over them. But if they return the Cyclones will be a legit Sweet 16 sleeper.
LSU (14-to-1) - Despite his lack of a jump shot, court vision and any discernable ball handling skills, freshman Tyrus Thomas has decided to ride the tide of Hype to a potential spot in the lottery. I can't fault Thomas for this; his stock will never be this high again. But if Glen Davis decided that he wasn't good enough to turn pro, there's no way that Thomas is. Thomas already hired an agent, so there's no chance of LSU returning its starting five. The matchup between the Tigers and the Gators next year will still be good, but it had a chance to be epic.
Memphis (20-to-1) - Someone must have told Darius Washington and Shawne Williams that managing just 6-for-19 combined shooting in their regional final dud last year meant that they were ready for the first round. The Tigers finished 33-4 last season and were set to return everyone but the graduating Rodney Carney. Washington could be a mid-late round pick, but Shawne Williams is just dime-a-dozen athlete. It's a shame. Don't be shocked when those recruiting violations pop up in Memphis as Calipari scrambles to fill the talent void.
Texas (12-to-1) - If it weren't bad enough that LeMarcus Aldridge thinks he's good enough to go pro, but Daniel Gibson and P.J. Tucker decided to follow him into the draft. Had those three decided to return, Texas would have been powerful enough to beat the Jayhawks. Now, the loss of any of the triumvirate relegates them to "Good Enough To Make The Tournament."
BIGGEST POSITIVE IMPACT
Florida (8-to-1) - It would have been real easy for the Gators to believe the hype. Joakim Noah, Al Horford and Corey Brewer could have taken the title and ran. All three have inflated stock right now because of their national championship. However, returning was not only the smart move for each of them individually, but they now have a legitimate opportunity for something immortal - back-to-back titles. Also, another year ruling The Swamp can only be good for the libido.
Kansas (10-to-1) - There had been rumors that either Brandon Rush or Mario Chalmers was considering dipping a toe in the NBA Draft pool. Instead, the Jayhawks stand to lose nothing from last year's young, talented squad. But just as important as it was for Kansas to maintain its outstanding core, the fracture of the Texas starting five (as well as the Iowa State backcourt) is just as crucial. Now there may be no one in the Midwest to slow the Chalk Jayhawk.
North Carolina (8-to-1) - There were increased rumblings that Tyler Hansborough was going to parlay his National Freshman of the Year Award into a spot at the top of the first round. Instead, he decided to return and maintained UNC's spot as a '06-'07 favorite. I think the Tar Heels would have been better off if underachiever Rashaun Terry decide to take his attitude and skip to The League (D-League that is). But I guess Roy Williams will be glad to have his second-leading scorer back.
Ohio State (9-to-1) - The Buckeyes were one of the biggest beneficiaries of the new rule prohibiting the prep-to-pro entries into the NBA drafts. But OSU makes the list here not because of anyone that didn't leave, but due to the fact that so much of its primary competition for a national title (UConn, UCLA, Texas, LSU, etc.) was effected so negatively by defections. All this does is open the door a little wider for the young Bucks.
Questions or comments for Robert? E-mail him at robert@docsports.com or check out his Insider Page here.