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2024 Detroit Tigers Predictions with World Series Odds and Season Win Total Picks

by Ryan Cobbett - 2/21/2024

Detroit Tigers predictions Spencer Torkelson

Summary of Last Season

The Detroit Tigers would finish second in the AL Central division last season, nine games out of first place and six games below .500. They finished 11 games out of the final wild card spot. And like all AL Central teams, their only chance at the playoffs was by way of a division title. Their 78-84 record was actually six games better than their expected record at 72-90. Regardless, the club made significant strides even with little to show for it.

The offense struggled as the club ranked 28th in OPS with a lowly .687 mark. They went on to finish 24th in homeruns, 28th in runs, 25th in hits, 22nd in walks, and would finish 9th in the MLB in most strikeouts at the plate. OF Kerry Carpenter would lead this club with a 2.1 WAR and was the only one to record an ops higher than .800 (.811). Carpenter would also finish third on the team in homeruns despite playing in only 118 games. 1B Spencer Torkelson clubbed a team leading 31 homeruns and tallied the most RBIs on the Tigers with 94. However, his high strikeout % and low AVG indicates he needs more protection in the lineup.

As for the pitching, Eduardo Rodriguez was the leader of the rotation as he would be the only Tiger to record more than 110 innings (152.2) and he posted a 13-9 record and a 3.30 ERA with 14 quality starts. Tarik Skubal shined when he was on the mound as well, where he recorded a 2.80 ERA with a .90 WHIP in 15 starts. 24-year-old Reese Olson came out of nowhere and left a positive impact on the rotation as well as he posted a 3.99 ERA in 103.2 innings.

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Detroit Tigers Key Additions/Losses

There were a lot of significant departures from the club this season, with Matthew Boyd, Rodriguez, and Austin Meadows all hitting the free agent market, and longtime fan favorite Miguel Cabrera retired from the game.

Despite the losses, the team has seemingly rebounded in a nice way between emerging prospects and some free agent acquisitions. Detroit would acquire Mark Canha in a trade with the Brewers, giving them a middle of the order bat. They strengthened the rotation by adding veteran pitchers Kenta Maeda and Jack Flaherty while reinforcing the bullpen with the signings of Andrew Chafin and Shelby Miller. The Tigers also took fliers on the likes of INF Keston Hiura and RP’s Garrett Hill and Trey Wingenter.

Detroit Tigers Prospect Outlook

In what seems to be the new way, the Tigers locked up 3B/2B Colt Keith on a six-year deal despite not having ever played a major league game. Keith did slash a line of .300/.382/.512 in three minor league seasons. The young prospect also has some power potential, and it appears as he will start the season as the everyday second baseman. OF Parker Meadows also projects to have a big impact on the ensuing campaign. The Tigers 10th overall prospect looks like he will be the everyday center fielder.

Despite already being loaded with young arms, there are a few more on the way. Wilmer Flores (7th), Sawyer Gipson-Long (19th), and Keider Montero (26th) are on the 40-man roster with Jackson Jobe (3rd) and Ty Madden (6th) invited to big league camp.

Detroit Tigers X-Factors

Pitching Staff- The offense may look a bit better with the addition of Canha and the power potential of Keith, but the real X-factor is the pitching. Tarik Skubal is the team’s ace for the foreseeable future, and the club did a nice job adding Maeda and Flaherty to fall in line behind Skubal while providing a nice presence for the up and comers. Casey Mize and Reese Olson will anchor the rotation with Matt Manning, Joey Wentz and the aforementioned prospect potential all providing incredible depth. Alex Lange looks like he will be the club’s closer with Tyler Holton, Jason Foley, and Will Vest ready to repeat their sub 3.00 ERA performance out of the bullpen.

Additions- The state of the offense will not change heading into the season and the improvements were mild. The Tigers will hope Keith and Meadows bud into impact bats, but the club will need to add to the lineup if they want to make a run at the division title this season. The farm system is loaded and there are already developed prospects on the roster, the Tigers will have the ability to add whomever they want… if they want to.

Detroit Tigers Expectations

To compete, within their limits. As mentioned, the farm system is loaded, and the roster age is young. The club is in a good position for an exponential change in their performance via their prospects. The AL Central is the weakest division in baseball. And given this club finished only nine games back, it is reasonable to look at a division crown. The rotation’s ceiling is incredibly high, while the offense will need to far exceed expectations if they want to compete with the other playoff caliber teams. Their front office has their agenda, for now it may just be to do as good as possible while keeping the farm system intact.

Detroit Tigers Notable Odds:

World Series Champions- +6000

Pennant Winners- +3200

Division Winners- +350

AL Rookie of the Year – Colt Keith - +1000 / Parker Meadows +2000

Detroit Tigers Predictions

The Tigers projected win total currently sits at 80.5. And if the rotation stays healthy, I like the over. The Tigers will quietly come into the season with one of the better rotations around the league, if they stay healthy. Keith is an exciting prospect, and the Canha/Torkelson duo will provide some more pop in the lineup. The floor for the Tigers is a .500 season, while they could end up winning the Central. The over 80.5 seems like the way to go.

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