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Women's Sweet 16 Bracket Picks: Mapping Out the Eventual National Champion

by Ryan Cobbett - 3/26/2025

Women's Sweet 16 bracket predictions JuJu Watkins USC Trojans

Similarly to the Men’s bracket, the Women’s bracket had no significant upsets and the worst seed to reach the Sweet 16 round was a handful of No. 5 Seeds. USC has seen their championship aspirations take a big hit after losing their star player to an ACL tear, which means we may see one of those 5-Seeds reach the Elite Eight. The remaining field is truly best on best, and we have some exciting matches to follow. Keep on reading for some best bets in the Sweet 16, some Final Four sleepers, and a preview of a potential championship game between two of the most elite programs in women’s basketball.

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Sweet 16 Matches

No. 5 Seed: Kansas State Wildcats vs No. 1 Seed: USC Trojans / USC -1.5, O/U- 140.5

The biggest storyline heading into the Sweet 16 is the torn ACL that Juju Watkins suffered in USC’s last game against Mississippi State. However, the Trojans still have Kiki Iriafen who is a potential Top Five pick in the upcoming WNBA draft. Iriafen has averaged 18.6 PPG this season and has 49 points so far in the tournament. However, Iriafen and the Trojans are about to run into 6-foot-6 center Ayoka Lee who returned from a foot injury before the tournament. This Wildcats team ranks second in the nation in 3P% as they are shooting 38.8% from deep and with Lee back in the lineup, they also have a significant height advantage to work the ball inside and create second chance scoring opportunities. Avery Howell will be a key part of any USC win going forward as she is their best three-point shooter. Howell has shot 41% from beyond the arc over her last eight games and she will need to continue that in this matchup to keep up with the Wildcats sharpshooters. Unfortunately for the Trojans, the Wildcats are an overlooked No. 5 Seed who have the weapons to make a deeper run than most think. Kansas State gets the big upset here as well as the over here.

My Pick: Kansas State, Even / Over 140.5

No. 3 Seed: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs No. 2 Seed: TCU Horned Frogs / ND -5.5, O/U 144.5

This might be the most intriguing matchup in the Sweet 16 round. The Horned Frogs have put together quite the story as they have turned their program around quickly and have now reached the Sweet 16 for the first time in program history. They are led by Hailey Van Lith and Sedona Prince who are both averaging more than 17 PPG. As for Notre Dame, they have the incredible trio of Hannah Hidalgo (24.1 PPG), Olivia Miles (15.5 PPG), and Sonia Citron (14.2 PPG) who are all shooting over 38% from deep while also averaging 5.0 or more RPG. TCU has already beaten the Irish once this season, behind a 31-point 4th quarter, despite shooting just 28% from deep. Now both of these teams are dangerous from beyond the arc. It is also worth noting that Prince had a 20/20 performance in that game, and she will need to repeat that performance if the Horned Frogs want to stay alive. TCU will keep this one close as each team will trade punches back and forth with their three-point shooting, but Notre Dame’s trio will prove to be too much. The Horned Frogs will cover, and I am going to take the under 144.5 here as both teams have underrated defenses.

My Pick: TCU +4.5, Under 144.5

No. 3 Seed: North Carolina Tar Heels vs No. 2 Seed: Duke Blue Devils / Duke -5.5, O/U- 124.5

This is a rivalry that runs deep across all sports. These two have split the season series and are now set for a rubber match in the Sweet 16. These were the top two scoring defenses in the ACC this season as they both allowed just over 57 PPG. Though they may not actually be guarding each other in this one, the Lexi Donarski/Ashlon Jackson matchup will be a huge determining factor for this one. Donarski and Jackson are the best three-point shooters for their respective teams, though Jackson has a slight edge in these games as she has shot 40% from deep against UNC this season compared to Donarski’s 33% against Duke. These two teams have very similar profiles, but one of them has to win. The big difference between these two rosters is the Blue Devils’ ability to create second chance opportunities. They have averaged 14.7 offensive RPG this season, which was tied for the best mark in the ACC. Look for Duke’s second chance points to be the deciding factor here, though this game will likely come down to the wire.

My Pick: UNC +5.5, Under 124.5

Final Four Bids

TCU Horned Frogs: +650

The winner of the TCU/Notre Dame game could end up making a surprise run at the Final Four and even a championship. The pieces are there for either squad. For the Horned Frogs, they have tremendous value at +650 as they continue to fly under the radar. Van Lith has been to the Final Four once in her career and has reached the Elite Eight every other year. She’s not the only Horned Frogs player with deep tournament experience and her and Prince are far from the only quality producers. Madison Conner is shooting 45.5% from deep while she is also averaging 14.6 PPG. Agnes Emma-Nnopu and Donovyn Hunter showed just how deep this TCU roster is as both players set season highs in points in their last game against Louisville. It won’t be an easy path for anyone at this point in the tournament, but with all the experience and the juiced odds, TCU should be on your radar as a Final Four sleeper.

LSU Tigers: +300

Another interesting Final Four candidate is the LSU Tigers. Their odds are slightly juiced at +300 purely due to their path. They would have to presumably get past Lauren Betts and the UCLA Bruins if they can get past the NC State Wolfpack in the Sweet 16. It would be tough to overcome the deep UCLA roster, but the Tigers have one of the best trio of players in the country in Flau’Jae Johnson (18.8 PPG), Aneesah Morrow (18.5 PPG), and Mikaylah Williams (17.4 PPG). This is also an LSU roster who has some recent experience and exposure to the later rounds of this tournament. Betts creates a height advantage for the Bruins and UCLA has been playing elite defense all season, allowing 70 or more points in just four games this season. However, it would be hard to bet against the tournament experience this team has. LSU has a tough path to reach the Final Four, but don’t overlook them.

National Champion Game

No. 2 Seed: UConn Huskies vs No. 1 Seed South Carolina Gamecocks

With 16 teams remaining, there are two that stand above the rest, and they are the defending champion South Carolina Gamecocks and the dominant UConn Huskies. The Huskies have the best scoring defense (51.5 PPG) in the country while also leading the nation in FG%, as they are the only team in the country to shoot over 50% (51.3%) from the floor. The Huskies have an exciting trio of Paige Bueckers, Sarah Strong, and Azzi Fudd. Bueckers (19.2 PPG) is arguably the best player in the nation while Strong is a capable scorer (16.1 PPG) who leads the team in RPG (8.5) and Fudd gets in done from beyond the arc (45.3% 3P%). This would be a rematch between these two teams as UConn took care of business, beating South Carolina by 29 points in Columbia. The Huskies outrebounded the Gamecocks 48-29 and they held South Carolina to just 17.6% from beyond the arc. Expect a much closer game this time around, but these Huskies are going to dethrone South Carolina.

My Pick: UConn Huskies (+155 to win the National Championship)

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