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2023 WNBA MVP Odds and Predictions

by Matt Zitt - 8/21/2023

WNBA MVP odds and predictions Alyssa Thomas Connecticut Sun

With the WNBA season winding down, it is looking like a possible three horse race for the MVP Trophy. A high regular-season finish as a team is a must for a WNBA MVP candidate. Only one player has managed to take home the honor over the past 14 seasons without being on a team that finished among the league’s top two. The WNBA is as top-heavy as ever, so we can comfortably assume the MVP will come from either Las Vegas Aces, New York Liberty, or Connecticut Sun. Below is our breakdown of the WNBA MVP market.

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Breanna Stewart, New York Liberty (-150)

Stewart’s free agency decision to join the New York Liberty shook up the WNBA this winter, forming a fearsome quartet of All-Stars. She maintains her position as the front-runner for the WNBA MVP Award. However, her odds were at -300 in mid-July, indicating this race is going to be closer than once anticipated. The 28-year-old currently leads the league in win shares, a significant metric that often correlates with winning the award. She is averaging 22.6 points per game, 9.1 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 1.5 steals per contest. She is also shooting 37.4% from three-point land. The MVP is certainly in Stewart’s grasp, especially if New York can narrow the gap with the Aces for the top spot in the league. With eight games remaining on the Liberty’s schedule, they are currently sitting three games back in the standings to catch Las Vegas.

A'ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces (+145)

Wilson has won two of the last three MVP Awards and has a great chance to add to her trophy case. She kicked off the season with odds ranging between +300 and +350 to repeat. Her odds even reached +400 in July, but now she is making a steady climb up the leaderboard. It helps that her squad has been dominating the league and sits as the top dog at 28-4. The former MVP leads the league in win shares per 40 and blocks per game. Wilson is also fourth in the league in scoring while averaging 21.3 points per contest. She ranks second in rebounding averaging just under 10 boards per game. The 27-year-old has proven she is one of the WNBA’s most exceptional two-way players. Las Vegas still needs to create more separation in the standings over the Liberty for Wilson to claim her third MVP trophy in the past four seasons.

Alyssa Thomas, Connecticut Sun (+1500)

Although the MVP competition looks like a two-horse race, do not sleep on Alyssa Thomas. The Connecticut Sun standout is the only other player in the WNBA with odds under +20000, and for good reason. She consistently poses as a triple-double threat every time she takes the court, showcasing her immense skills as a scorer, rebounder, and passer. She is currently averaging 15.5 points per game to go along with 10.0 rebounds per contest. She also dishes out 8.1 assists per game while shooting 46.3% from the floor. She has led Connecticut to a playoff berth with a 22-10 record and are three games behind the Liberty and six games behind Vegas for the top spot with eight games remaining in the regular season. Thomas deserves a ton of recognition for her pivotal role in Connecticut’s contention during the WNBA’s super team era.

Recent WNBA MVP Winners

2022 A’ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces

2021 Jonquel Jones, Connecticut Sun

2020 A’ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces

2019 Elena Delle Donne, Washington Mystics

2018 Breeana Stewart, Seattle Storm

2017 Sylvia Fowles, Minnesota Lynx

2016 Nneka Ogwumike, Los Angeles Sparks

2015 Elena Delle Donne, Chicago Sky

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