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2024 Wisconsin Badgers Football Predictions and Betting Odds

by Joey House - 8/8/2024

Wisconsin Badgers football predictions Braedyn Locke

2023 record: 7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS

PPG: 23.5 (93rd of 133)

Opp PPG: 20.2 (21st of 133)

Head Coach: Luke Fickell (7-6 First Year)

Wisconsin 2024 Reg. Season Wins Over 7 +115 Under 7 -135

Big Ten Champ. Game Winner +6500

Make 2024-2025 CFP +1000

Win Nation Title +25000

Wisconsin Badgers 2023 Recap

The Wisconsin Badgers football team made headlines with the surprising decision to fire their highly successful head coach, Paul Chryst, on October 2, 2022. Chryst, who had an impressive overall record of 67-26 (.720) during his tenure at Wisconsin, was let go after a disappointing start to the 2022 season. In his place, the Badgers hired Luke Fickell, the former Cincinnati head coach known for his ability to build and elevate programs.

However, Fickell's first season in 2023 didn't quite meet the high expectations, ending with a disappointing 7-6 record. The team struggled to adapt to new systems on both sides of the ball and faced several critical injuries, which hampered their performance. However, there is a sense of potential for growth as the Badgers look ahead to the 2024 season. Fickell has had more time to implement his vision, and the team is expected to show improvement. Yet, this transition period also highlights a common issue in college football: fans' unrealistic expectations. Often, supporters believe their team is destined for greatness, overlooking the challenges and realities of building and maintaining a top-tier program. As the Badgers embark on this new chapter, it remains to be seen whether Fickell can meet the lofty aspirations of Wisconsin's passionate fan base.

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Wisconsin Badgers Offense (7 returning starters)

After being installed as the Badgers' new head coach, Fickell's first hire was poaching offensive coordinator Phil Longo from UNC. Longo, a disciple of Mike Leach's "Air Raid" philosophy, brought his complex offensive system to Wisconsin. Adding Longo brought in a bevy of transfers, including three highly recruited QBs. Tanner Mordecai, a 2-year starter at SMU, won the starting job. Despite having back-to-back 3,000+ yard seasons at SMU, Tanner Mordecai struggled with only 2,065 yards, nine touchdowns, and four interceptions, highlighting the adjustment period needed for Longo's system. Mordecai departs, but junior QB Braedyn Locke, who transferred from Mississippi State last season, will battle another transfer, Tyler Van Dyke, who joins the Badgers after starting three seasons at Miami. Quarterback will be a tightly contested position battle during summer camp, but whoever wins will be an upgrade over last year.

Unfortunately, the new starting quarterback will be without running back Braelon Allen (3,494 yards and 35 TDs over three years), who was drafted by the New York Jets. His replacement, Sr. Chez Mellusi (2021 yards, 5.0 ypc, 17 TDs through 5 years), will finally get to shoulder the whole load. They also brought in Tawee Walker (513 yards, 5.0 ypc, 7 TDs last year) from Oklahoma and added a trio of highly-touted freshmen. The receiving corps returns five of its seven top receivers from a year ago and will benefit greatly from the added year of experience in Longo's system. The offensive line has a wealth of experience, with 102 career starts returning, and aims to enhance a rushing attack that recorded the second-lowest average yards per game total in the past seven seasons.

Wisconsin Badgers Defense (8 returning starters)

Phil Longo wasn't the only new coordinator Luke Fickell brought in. Defensive coordinator Mike Tressel followed Fickell from Cincinnati, where he served in the same capacity. While the Badgers' offense may have been disappointing last season, their defense was stout and kept them in most games. The only double-digit losses were to Ohio State and an upset loss to Northwestern.

Much like the offense, the Badgers defense experienced some growing pains in learning a new defensive system. They see three of their top four sack artists depart but return seven of their eight top pass defenders, including Jr. CB Ricardo Hallman, who tied Xavier Watts of Notre Dame for the most interceptions in the country with seven. The most important addition to the defense will be an improved offense, which can keep the defense off the field. Last year, Wisconsin's average time of possession a game was 29 minutes and 16 seconds, ranked 85th out of 133 schools.

Wisconsin Badgers Football Schedule Analysis

The Badgers ease into the 2024 season with a MAC opponent and then a perennial FCS powerhouse, South Dakota. Things get interesting quickly, though, with a week three visit from a Nick Saban-less Alabama. If there were ever a time to start a home-and-home series with the Crimson Tide, the first year without Nick Saban at the helm would probably be it. After a week to recoup after the Alabama game, Wisconsin's conference slate begins with a visit to the LA Coliseum to battle the USC Trojans.

From a scheduling standpoint, Wisconsin hit the jackpot. The toughest road game they play will be an early visit to Iowa. They avoid Michigan and Ohio State and get both Penn State and Oregon at home. Their game against Alabama comes at almost the perfect time, as they can iron out any wrinkles with two relatively easy opponents first. Their bye week following the Crimson Tide is beautiful, allowing them to rest and reflect before their conference schedule starts. The most challenging part of 2024 will easily be the 3-game stretch of playing PSU, traveling to Iowa, and then hosting Oregon in the latter part of the year.

Wisconsin Badgers Football Predictions

The Wisconsin Badgers are poised for a season brimming with growth and potential in Luke Fickell's second year at the helm. With a more seasoned roster, and the infusion of key transfers, the team is set to build on its 2023 performance. The offense, now spearheaded by a new quarterback and bolstered by a robust running game, promises to be more explosive, while the defense remains a formidable force. The schedule is favorable, sidestepping powerhouses like Michigan and Ohio State and featuring pivotal home games against Penn State and Oregon. If the team can successfully navigate early challenges, particularly the clash with Alabama, they have a strong chance to surpass expectations, secure a winning record, and potentially contend for a spot in the Big Ten Championship game.

Wisconsin Game to Key On

October 5 vs Purdue: Between visits to the East and West Coast, the Badgers get to host a weak Purdue squad. Wisconsin absolutely owns the Boilermakers, winning 17 in a row and 19 out of the last 22. Wisconsin's ATS record against Purdue isn't much worse, going 16-6 over that period. With both USC and Rutgers looking to be improved from a season ago, Coach Fickell will emphasize to his troops that they need to take care of business in the games they have a decided edge. Wisconsin covered a 6-point spread as a visiting favorite last season, routing Purdue 38-17. Even though the Badgers will probably be about two touchdown favorites here, I like them to cover that number.

Prediction: 8-4 and a decent bowl game

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