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Will There Be A Triple Crown Winner in 2020? Expert Horse Racing Tips and Predictions

by Chris Vasile - 7/20/2020

Justify in the Kentucky Derby

It has been two years since Justify won the American Triple Crown with a 1 ¾ length margin of victory over a horse by the name of Gronkowski in the Belmont Stakes. That win by Justify marked the second time in four years that a horse had successfully completed his bid to become a Triple Crown Champion (American Pharaoh accomplished it in 2015). However, prior to American Pharaoh’s triumph, the horse racing industry had gone 37 years without such a feat, and that just goes to show you how difficult a task it is to win three races at three different racecourses in just more than 30 days. This year is no exception. The pandemic that has sent shock waves throughout the world has also affected the horse racing industry. Tracks were forced to postpone their opening date, and most tracks are still operating under a no-fans policy.

The Kentucky Derby – perhaps the most famous of horse races across the globe -- was forced to reschedule its annual event due to the Covid Pandemic that has sent shockwaves throughout the globe. The Kentucky Derby began racing in 1875 and has not missed a year since then. Because of that, the Derby folks opted to move the race from May 2, 2020, to September 5, 2020, which makes this the last race of this year’s Triple Crown.

The Belmont Stakes – typically the last leg of the puzzle - got pushed up to June 20, 2020, from June 6, and was won by Tiz the Law. This horse now has to win the upcoming Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes (October 3rd – originally May 16) in order to etch his name in the history books.

Triple Crown Race Dates

Belmont Stakes – June 20, 2020 – Winner: Tiz the Law

Kentucky Derby – September 5, 2020 – Churchill Downs

Preakness Stakes – October 3, 2020 – Pimlico Racecourse

Triple Crown Odds

Because this year is such a strange year in terms of routine, timing, training protocols and everything in between, the oddsmakers have to like their chances of there not being a Triple Crown winner this year.

They’ve listed the “No” option at -450, with the “Yes” option checking in at +350.

Personally, I believe wining the Triple Crown is one of the hardest feats to accomplish given the short time in between each race, the fact that they are running on three different racecourses, and the fact that the quality of competition is elite. However, with the extremely lengthy layoff between the Belmont and the Derby, Tiz the Law’s trainers should have enough time to freshen him up and have him ready to run his best at Churchill.

As of writing this, the Kentucky Derby odds are as follows:

Tiz the Law +200, Honor A P +550, Art Collector +1000, Uncle Chuck +1000, Authentic +1100, Dr Post +1600, Cezanne +1800, Max Player +2000, King Guillermo +2500, and Country Grammer +3300.

As you can see, Tiz the Law is the relatively heavy favorite to capture the Derby. And if the horse manages to do so, he will also be a very heavily bet favorite in the Preakness.

2020 Triple Crown Predictions

From what I understand, Tiz the Law is scheduled to contest the Travers Stakes at Saratoga on August 29. He is listed as the -125 favorite on the futures board, and rightfully so. He hasn’t put a foot wrong in quite some time, and this race will serve as the prep for the Derby three weeks later.

I’ve read quotes and heard soundbites from many trainers in the horse world, and they are all saying the same thing – this year’s Triple Crown winner (should there be one) will not have an asterisk beside their name. This year’s contest is unorthodox and will take every bit of preparation and ounce of energy the horse has for the Triple Crown to be won.

Why I believe that “yes” is worth a shot at +350 is because come September, most of the horses listed above will be taxed. Put it this way: when the Kentucky Derby is run in May, every trainer believes they have the next great horse. Twenty horses are entered, but realistically only five or six have a legitimate shot at winning it. In September, the field will likely be thinned out, and I am expecting a field of way less than 20 entrants. That gives Tiz the Law an even better chance of winning the Derby and moving to the Preakness, where the field is typically extremely small – around eight horses or so. If I’m putting my money anywhere it’s on the “yes” option at +350 and the best part is, you only have to cash two horse races in a three-week span.

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