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Will There Be a Triple Crown Winner in 2024? Odds and Expert Predictions

by Joey House - 5/16/2024

Will there be a Triple Crown winner in 2024? Mystik Dan

The stars seem to be aligning for Mystik Dan's quest to become the 14th thoroughbred to win the coveted Triple Crown of horse racing. He started with a magical run in the 150th Kentucky Derby two Saturdays ago. The horse racing community had to wait a week before trainer Kenny McPeek decided to enter the Preakness and at the very least give Mystik Dan the chance to continue on the Triple Crown campaign. The next star would soon fall in place.

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Top Competitor Scratched

Even though he was victorious in the "Run for the Roses", it was widely believed that Mystik Dan would have a difficult time capturing the second jewel of the Triple Crown due to the presence of Muth. The Bob Baffert-trained horse was ineligible to run in the Derby because of Baffert's suspension from the tainted victory, and subsequent disqualification, of Medina Spirit in the 2021 Kentucky Derby. Muth had been at the head of the class of 3-year-olds and had already defeated Mystik Dan in the Arkansas Derby (G1) at the end of March.

However, Wednesday morning it was announced that after traveling from California and arriving at Pimlico late Tuesday evening, Muth had spiked a fever of 103 degrees. With the normal temperature range of thoroughbreds ranging from 99-101, Baffert was forced to scratch the likely favorite. Mystik Dan has now been installed as the clear favorite at 5-2. His closest competition, in terms of odds, is from the 3-post Catching Freedom and the 9-post Imagination, both coming in at 6-1 odds.

Ramifications of Muth's Scratch

While it's disappointing to lose a top competitor, this scratch is a monumental gift for Mystik Dan. Not only had he been soundly defeated by Muth in the Arkansas Derby, but Mystik Dan should now be able to establish the race and dictate how it is run. In my Preakness pace analysis article, I predicted that Muth would grab the early lead and most likely wouldn't be threatened by anyone. With half of the speed horses gone, I now see Imagination taking over the role of his stablemate Muth.

What makes the difference here, however, is the post positions of the horses. Muth was blessed with the 4th post and thus had an inside track to establish his speed and dominance. Imagination will be doing it from the most outside position, the 9th post. While I fully believe Imagination will grab the early lead, he'll have to expend more energy coming from the outside, allowing Mystik Dan to stay with him more easily.

Trainer McPeek developed a brilliant strategy for the Kentucky Derby and jockey Brian Hernandez executed it flawlessly. With Muth's scratching, their game plan will be vastly different.

I'm Only Happy When It Rains

If Mystik Dan has a theme song, it very well could be this classic hit from the group Garbage during the 90s grunge scene. While off-tracks hinder many horses, the Derby winner posted his fastest Beyer speed rating in his victory in the 2024 Smarty Jones (LS) over a muddy track.

After some hope that the unsettled weather would dissipate, it now looks as though rain will most likely be part of the race. The National Weather Service forecast calls for a 60 percent chance of showers Saturday, mainly after 2 p.m. EDT, with a high near 73. That 60 percent chance of precipitation continues into Saturday night, mainly before 8 p.m. What won't be known, until the day of the race, is how heavy these showers will be and how much it will affect the track.

Getting into a "New York State of Mind"

Provided he can conquer the 8-horse field on Saturday in Maryland, Mystik Dan will be blessed yet again with a gift from the racing gods. Due to a $455 million upgrade to the Belmont Race Track and its facilities, for the first time in the history of the Belmont Stakes, the final leg of the Triple Crown will be run at the Saratoga Race Track for the next two years.

This is important because the Belmont is the longest race in distance at 1 1/2 miles. However, while the race is being held at Saratoga, it will be reduced to 1 1/4, the same length as the Kentucky Derby. The Belmont, often known as the "Test of Champions" for its distance, has ended the dream of the Triple Crown for 23 horses. From 1997 to 2004, six horses won the first two jewels, only to fall short in the third and longest race.

For this Triple Crown campaign, the distance won't be an issue.

Mystik Dan's Odds of Winning the Triple Crown

Due to the uncertainty of his entry into the Preakness, Mystik Dan's Triple Crown odds were set at +3300. Those odds were slashed to +1600 when trainer McPeek gave the O.K. for Mystik Dan to run on Saturday. Following the unfortunate scratch of Muth, those odds dropped even lower to +1000.

With everything that is falling into place for his benefit, there may be something mystical about Mystik Dan. If you think he's going to win the Preakness on Saturday, it makes mathematical sense to bet him on the Triple Crown, because if he is victorious, he'll be a huge favorite three weeks later in the Belmont.

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