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2024-25 Washington Capitals Predictions and Odds to Win Stanley Cup Finals

by Ryan Cobbett - 9/20/2024

Washington Capitals predictions Dylan Strome

Last season, the Washington Capitals earned a playoff spot after finishing the season with 91 points. They beat out the likes of Detroit, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia for the final wild card spot in the Eastern Conference. With a -37-goal differential, the Capitals had the worst differential of playoff teams and had the third worst differential in the Eastern Conference, ahead of only Montreal and Columbus. Their 220 goals scored were the lowest in the conference, but they found ways to get points night in and night out.

The Capitals ranked 28th in the league in scoring, as they finished with 2.63 GF/G on a 9.9% S%. Their special teams’ play was average, as they finished with a 20.6% PP% and a 79% PK%. There was little offense on this team and depth was an issue. Dylan Strome led the Caps with 67 points, while Alex Ovechkin led the way with 31 goals (65 points). Defenseman John Carlson finished third on the team with 52 points and led Washington with 42 assists. Strome, Ovechkin, and Carlson combined for 31% of the offensive production on this team.

The goaltending was the real strength of this team. They allowed 3.07 GA/G on a .903 SV%. Washington had three different netminders suit-up last season, with Charlie Lindgren appearing in 50 games, Darcy Kuemper appearing in 33 games, and Hunter Shepard appearing in four. Lindgren finished with a 25-16-7, allowing just 2.67 GA/G while recording a .911 SV%. His emergence was key to the Caps success, as Kuemper and Shepard behind him combined to allow 3.25 GA/G on a lowly .892 SV%.

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Seasons come and go, so now it’s time to take a look at what we can expect from the Washington Capitals in 2024-25:

Washington Capitals Key Additions/Losses

The Caps lost Nicolas Aube-Kubel (16 points in 60 games), Max Pacioretty (23 points in 47 games), Matthew Phillips, and Joe Snively during free agency. In addition to the departed talent, they traded away Darcy Kuemper, Beck Malenstyn (21 points), and Nick Jensen (14 points), two 2025 second round picks, and a 2026 third round pick this summer.

As for the additions, they boosted the offensive attack by adding Pierre-Luc Dubois (40 points), Andrew Mangiapane (40 points), and Jakob Chychrun (41 points) through trades as well as boosting the goaltending group by adding Logan Thompson. They also added blueliner Matt Roy (25 points) to a six-year deal, while also adding forwards Taylor Raddysh (14 points) and Brandon Duhaime (13 points).

Washington Capitals X-Factors

The offense- After adding Dubois, Mangiapane, Chychrun, and Roy, the offense should be much improved. They join Strome, Ovechkin, and a hopefully healthy T.J. Oshie that could now be a formidable group in the NHL. The top two lines for Washington feature a lot of goal scorers, but depth still remains a question, and this group has not been healthy for years now.

Depth- After the top two lines, the depth is questionable. They are a younger group, with Connor McMichael on his way to being a formidable goal scorer in this league. However, outside of McMichael, there is not a ton of ice time remaining on the bottom two lines. If the Caps stay healthy, this is not a huge issue. However, with the inevitability of this team getting injured, the Caps may not have enough depth to see enough improvement to make the playoffs.

Washington Capitals Goalie Outlook

After shipping off Darcy Kuemper and adding Logan Thompson, the strength of the Capitals just got stronger. Logan Thompson is not only an upgrade from Kuemper, but he will also take a lot of the workload and pressure off of Lindgren to be the only contributor. In 46 games last season, Thompson allowed 2.70 GA/G on a .908 SV%. Lindgren and Thompson may get a near 50/50 split on the workload this season and each netminder should benefit from the split. Washington’s goalie tandem might be the most underrated pairing in the NHL.

Grade: B+

Washington Capitals Key Schedule Stretch

October 12th-October 19th: This stretch is the opening week for the Caps with just four games. However, with most everyone entering the season healthy (besides Oshie), Washington can get a taste of what the offensive potential of this team could look like. Their first four games include home games against New Jersey, Vegas, and Dallas with a road trip to New Jersey. Four games against four playoff caliber teams. We should get a good glimpse of just how good this Washington team is from the get-go.

Washington Capitals Notable Odds

Stanley Cup Champions: +7000

Conference Winner: +3200

Division Winner: +1500

To Make the Playoffs- Yes: +168

Vezina Trophy- Charlie Lindgren: +5500

Hart Trophy- Alex Ovechkin: +30000

Jack Adams Award- Spencer Carbery: +1700

Washington Capitals Predictions

I love the over on the Team Point Total. This feels like free money here with the total sitting at 86.5. After finishing with 91 points last season, paired with taking tremendous strides in the offseason, I love for Washington to easily hit the over on the Point Total. Additionally, I think the Caps might be the biggest dark horse in the league, and for them to sit at +168 to make the playoffs seems like a huge steal as well. This team made the playoffs last season and got better during the offseason. On paper, they are better than the Penguins and the Islanders, and I think Washington can lock up a guaranteed spot this season.  

Over 86.5 Team Total Points

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