2007 WAC Preview
by Trevor Whenham - 07/27/2007
You might not think that you know much about the Western Athletic Conference, but if you are even a somewhat committed fan of college football you probably know a bit about at least two of its teams. Boise State became the darling of the country with their stunning upset of Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, and Hawaii got some attention thanks to their prolific offense led by Colt Brennan, the quarterback who could go high in the first round of the NFL Draft next year. You probably also know Fresno State, a little school that has been consistently impressive under coach Pat Hill, and which has been a bit of a quarterback factory - Trent Dilfer, David Carr and Billy Volek all donned the red and blue. You may have even been lucky enough to catch on to Nevada and their stellar 11-2 ATS record last season. In other words, the WAC may not be the highest profile conference out there, but it really has a lot to offer.
If the WAC has a problem it is that the quality drops off dramatically in the nine-team league after those top three or four programs. The rest of the teams go from truly average programs like San Jose State to truly terrible ones like Idaho. That creates a real strength of schedule problem for the programs that would like to be nationally relevant.
Team on the rise:
Fresno State. The Bulldogs had a very disappointing season last year. After opening with a win over Nevada they lost seven in a row. From a betting perspective that's the best thing that could have happened. The team has significantly lowered expectations, and it has a more experienced roster. Talent was not their problem last season, and they should be significantly better than their 4-8 record of last year.
Teams on the decline:
San Jose State. The Spartans were 9-4 last year, but that record was largely an illusion. The opponents they beat had a combined 17-65 record against Division 1 teams. They can't get that lucky twice, and will likely end up closer to 6-6.
Idaho. You can thank Dennis Erickson for this mess. He returned to Idaho with a five-year contract to restore the program that gave him his start. But then he bolted to Arizona State after just one season. They have a game against 1-AA Cal Poly that could be a win (not that that helps bettors), but more wins are hard to find.
Treading water (hasn't done much to improve):
Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs were awful last year, and they should be awful this year. Last year they won three, but a 1-AA opponent and mighty North Texas made that possible. This year a more difficult non-conference schedule will make improvement very difficult. A Nov. 10 visit to LSU should be particularly ugly.
Money Player (player to bet on):
Colt Brennan, QB, Hawaii. This guy has all of the tools, national attention and a system that is ideal for his game. His numbers should be ridiculous.
Bankroll Buster (player to avoid betting on):
Tom Brandstater, QB, Fresno State. You'll want to avoid trusting Brandstater until he shows he is worthy of your support. He has talent, but he needs to be better than he was last year to help his team out.
Important Betting Trends:
It was a tale of two teams - Nevada was among the best in the country with an 11-2 record ATS. To the other extreme, Fresno State was a pitiful 1-11 ATS. Hawaii went over the total nine times in 13 tries, while San Jose State managed it just three times in 11 games.
Potential Conference Champs:
Boise State. They have some key personnel to replace, but they have the benefit of a ridiculously easy schedule (112th ranked) to iron out the kinks and get back into form.
Key Games:
Boise State at Hawaii, Nov. 23. Hawaii's schedule is even easier than the Broncos', so it is very possible that this game will be a showdown of unbeaten to end the season. Can it get any better than that?
Fresno State at Texas A&M, Sept. 8. We will know in the second week of the season if the Bulldogs are for real when they face the solid Aggies (9-4, 8-3-1 ATS).
Predicted order of finish:
Boise State, Hawaii, Nevada, Fresno State, San Jose State, New Mexico State, Utah State, Louisiana Tech, Idaho.