Upset Picks for the Sweet 16

by Sean Barnard - 3/23/2022

Sweet 16 upset picks Ethan Morton Purdue Boilermakers

The first two rounds of March Madness are in the books, with the tournament bringing the usual amount of drama and excitement. There are 16 teams remaining in this year’s NCAA Tournament, and five of these teams are the 8th seed or lower. Even so, each remaining team has shown they are not to be taken lightly and that they may even be capable of another upset victory.

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Saint Peter’s (15) vs Purdue (3)

The biggest story of the tournament has been Saint Peter’s, who have punched their ticket to the Sweet 16 after defeating Kentucky (2) and Murray State (7) in the first two rounds. Prior to this year, there had been only nine 15 seeds to upset a 2 seed in the tournament’s history. The Peacocks are only the third 15 seed of all-time to make the Sweet 16. However, it is the second straight year, as Oral Roberts accomplished the same feat last season.

Saint Peter’s is an easy team to fall in love with as leading into the tournament they had the best against the spread record of any of the 68 teams at 22-9. They have covered their last 9 games in a row and have looked impressive so far in the tournament.

Purdue will be a real challenge for Saint Peters as they have a massive size advantage with 7-foot-4 Zach Edey and 6-foot-10 Trevion Williams. The Boilermakers beat Yale (14) 78-56 in the first round and cruised past (6) Texas by a score of 81-71 in the round of 32. They come into this game as 12.5-point favorites over Saint Peters in this matchup.

Unfortunately, Purdue is the much more complete basketball team, and the Cinderella run may finally come to its end. With that being said, Saint Peter’s old school style and ultra-competitiveness will be enough to keep them in the game. Vegas continues to disrespect the Peacocks, and 12.5 points is too many. Saint Peters is talented enough, and Purdue has enough consistent mental lapses, that the game will remain in reach for the Peacocks. Lay the points at +12.5 and believe in the underdogs for one more game. The game will tip-off on Friday at 7:09 EST.

Gonzaga (1) vs Arkansas (4)

The second-largest spread in this round comes with the tournament’s No. 1 overall seed in the Gonzaga Bulldogs. They will be favored by 9.5 points against the 4th-seeded Arkansas Razorbacks, who advanced past Vermont (13) and New Mexico State (12) to get to this round.

Gonzaga is the title favorite for good reason, as they are following up their Final Four trip last year by adding the No. 1 overall recruit and potential top pick, Chet Holmgren, and going 28-3 on the season. The Bulldogs cruised past Georgia State (16) and took down an impressive Memphis team (9) by a score of 82-78.

As talented as this Gonzaga team is, the school also has been known for being an upset target in years past. The weak conference schedule makes it hard to evaluate exactly how good this team is, and there are some holes in their roster that could be exploited. Arkansas runs a fast-paced offense that could prove difficult for Gonzaga’s less mobile lineup to keep up with. This was partially exposed by Memphis as they took a 10-point lead into halftime in the round of 32. Look for Arkansas’ guard-heavy lineup to push the pace and to give themselves the best chance to win. If the Razorbacks can get out in transition regularly, it will create some real issues for Drew Timme and Holmgren as they excel when the game slows down.

Arkansas +9.5 is the pick, and sprinkling a little on the +375 moneyline might also be worth it. This game will tip off on Thursday at 7:09 EST.

Iowa State (11) vs Miami (10)

While this may not be a major upset in the traditional sense, Vegas lines still aren’t giving Iowa State the respect they have earned. As 10 and 11 seeds, both teams are considered surprises to be in this Sweet 16. Iowa State has beaten 6th seeded LSU and 3rd-seeded Wisconsin by 5 points in each game. In comparison, Miami has pulled an upset on 7th-seeded USC and 2nd-seeded Auburn in a dominant 18-point victory.

Miami is a solid team that executed their game plan just about as perfectly as possible in the matchup with Auburn. The Hurricanes are very good on the boards and have an impressive offense that has scored less than 70 points in a game just once since February. The U does have some issues defending and benefited from an Auburn self-destruction in the previous round.

Iowa State is nearly opposite stylistically from Miami, as they count on their defense to drive them to victory. They have held their opponents to 6 of 41 on three-point attempts in the tournament and forced Wisconsin to turn the ball over 18 times despite them leading the nation in a lack of turnovers before the tournament. The Cyclones have allowed opponents to score just 62 points per game during the season. They rotate efficiently and trap heavily, which creates chaos for opponents, and this has withstood the test of the tourney so far. While Miami has the more impressive wins on paper, you can only beat the teams in front of you, and Iowa State has had no problem doing this.

A lot of times in the tournament, it is not the team that can play well but rather the team that can make the other play bad that comes out with a win, and Iowa State should be trusted to make this the case. Take Iowa State as a +116 underdog. The game will tip-off Friday at 9:59 EST.

Other Games:

There will be five other Sweet 16 matchups this weekend to keep an eye on as well:

Michigan vs Nova (-5)- Thursday at 7:29 EST

Texas Tech vs Duke (+1) Thursday at 9:39 EST

Arizona vs Houston (+1.5) Thursday at 9:59 EST

Providence vs Kansas (-7.5) Friday at 7:29 EST

UNC vs UCLA (-2.5) Friday at 9:39 EST

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Upset Picks for the Sweet 16

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