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Understanding and Learning How to Calculate Expected Value EV for Sports Betting

by August Young - 6/3/2024

Houston Astros Pitcher Justin Verlander

In this article we are going to discuss the concept of value, and expected value (also known as “EV”)

We often hear that value means underdogs, but there is little correlation.

Value is not solely reserved for underdogs. In fact, depending on your approach, you may be just as likely to find value with favorites.

It’s also worth noting that Value can also “double up” alongside Closing Line Value.

If you want to understand more about the topic of Closing Line Value, be sure to read the following link, which covers the topic in detail.

So, let’s dive into what value really means, and how it can be utilized as a tool.

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Value (or Expected Value / EV) is a term that relates to a bet you made, compared to where the line closed.

This is similar to Closing Line Value; but we will get a little more specific as to why it’s known as value, and how that can be used to gain an edge.

It’s important to note that when we compare these wagers, that we are using the ‘No-Vig Line.’

Let’s use the NBA as an example…

Assume you laid -2 (-110) and by tip-off the line is -2.5 (-110).

Great! There’s some solid closing line value! Right?

Let’s pump the breaks a little…

We must always remember that all lines (such as -2 and -2.5) also have the juice of -110 attached to them (also known as the vig / vigorish)

In this instance of -110 on both sides, the vig is -4.55%. This is something you need to overcome if you want any chance at long-term success.

So, while you laid -2 (-110), it’s important to remove the vig from the closing line, which would then be -2.5 (+100).

The move from -2 (-110) to -2.5 (+100) is still -1.50% negative value despite the 0.5 point move in your favor.

This is a key distinction!

Now, if you were to lay -2 (-110) and the line closed -3 (-110), once we remove the vig on the -3, you would have achieved +1.78% positive value!

If you’re interested in how we came up with the +1.78% value number, it’s complicated; but a quick search online for Closing Line Value Calculator, CLV Calculator, or Value Calculator should provide you with enough resources.

You can utilize a good understanding of value to pick off stale numbers in the market.

For example – if you happen to notice the sharp market-making sportsbooks such as Circa, Pinnacle, and Bookmaker all moving from -2 to -3 in the NBA, but FanDuel is slow to the party and is still hanging a -2; you can jump on board and grab that -2 at FD to pick up +1.78% of +EV!

We should also note that ‘Value’ is also the same as your ‘Expected Profit or (xROI)’ from an earning standpoint.

More simply…

+1.78% of value means you can expect to earn $1.78 per $100 wagered.

It’s vital as a professional sports bettor to think in terms of value as this gives you a realistic expectation of the long-term profit you can expect to make on any given wager based on your edge and where the line closed.

To push this point further; let’s assume the -2 (-110) that was bet, closed at -4. This means, once the vig has been removed from the closing line, you have positive value somewhere in the region of +9%.

This means for every $100 wagered; you can expect to profit $9.

This is how value works and can be applied across any price range.

For example, in money line sports; if you lay -200, and the line closes -250; that is still a +EV wager that will win long-term.

Value does not mean underdogs. There is no such thing as value on an NBA side that is +10 if the true line should be +12. However, if the line should be +7, then we now have a value proposition that should pique our interest.

Don’t listen to the public narrative and be tricked that you must bet underdogs to find value.

Professional sports bettors will lay -500 on a game, if they believe that team should be -700.

Price discrimination is detrimental to your long-term success.

Understanding value and how it works in the marketplace is vital to being a professional sports bettor.

Here are some thought processes you can go through in your mind when placing a wager to ensure you’re keeping value in mind.

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“What is my EV on this wager based on the market setting books?”

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“Can I find better value at another sportsbook? Can I bet that number?”

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“The market seems to be moving away from my lean, what’s my EV?”

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“Where do I expect this line to close, and is that enough to overcome the vig?”

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Becoming equipped with this knowledge brings you one step closer to becoming a sharper sports bettor that can expect to win in the long run.

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