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2024-25 Toronto Maple Leafs Predictions and Odds to Win Stanley Cup Finals

by Ryan Cobbett - 9/16/2024

Toronto Maple Leafs predictions Auston Matthews

The Maple Leafs once again failed to make a deep run in the playoffs last season despite having the ever loved “Core Four.” Toronto finished the season with 102 points on the year, grabbing the last guaranteed spot in the Atlantic Division. Their 33 regulation wins were the third lowest of teams who made the playoffs and the lowest among those who held a guaranteed spot. They absolutely dominated the Western Conference, going 24-6-2 against them last season, but they stumbled against those within their division, as they went just 11-12-3 within their division. This fact came back to bite them in the playoffs as they were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs as Boston took the series in seven games.

Toronto’s offense was one of the best in the league, as they ranked 2nd in GF/G, averaging 3.63 GF/G. Their special teams play was night and day, as they cashed in on 24% of their Power Play chances last season, while their penalty kill ranked in the bottom third of the league as they killed off just 76.9% of their opponent’s man advantage chances. Auston Matthews led the team with 107 points, which also ranked sixth in the league. He led the NHL, by a significant margin, in goals, with 69, which was 12 more than second place. Matthews also had a +/- rating of +31, which was 14th in the league. William Nylander finished second on the team with 98 points. He scored 40 goals, which was also second to Matthews, while also finishing second on the team with 58 assists. Mitch Marner led the Maple Leafs with 59 assists, while finishing with 85 points. John Tavares rounded out the “Core Four” and Top Four on the team in points, finishing with 65 points on 29 goals and 36 assists.

While their offensive attack was incredible, their goaltending was subpar. The Leafs ranked 22nd in the NHL, allowing 3.18 GA/G, while their .898 SV% ranked 23rd. Ilya Samsonov struggled last season as he allowed 3.13 GA/G on a .890 SV%, in 40 games. Joseph Woll appeared in 25 games, allowing 2.94 GA/G, while leading the team with a .907 SV%. Martin Jones played in 22 games, allowing, a team best, 2.87 GA/G with a .902 SV%.

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Seasons come and go, so now it’s time to take a look at what we can expect from the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2024-25:

Toronto Maple Leafs Key Additions/Losses

Toronto’s biggest loss during the offseason was Tyler Bertuzzi, who tallied 43 points for the Leafs last season, as he signed with Chicago. Blueliner TJ Brodie (26 points) also left for the Blackhawks, while they also lost John Klingberg, Noah Gregor, and Ilya Samsonov.

Their additions far outweighed their losses. They started by re-signing Max Domi (47 points), trading for the right to Chris Tanev and then signing him to a six-year deal, and then immediately upgrading between the pipes by signing Anthony Stolarz to a two-year deal. They also added veteran blueliner Jani Hakanpaa to a one-year deal as well as defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson (32 points) to a four-year deal.

Toronto Maple Leafs X-Factors

Core Four- The Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Mitch Marner, and John Tavares experiment has failed thus far, as they have yet to bring home a cup with these guys together. To make matters worse, Nylander is an upcoming free agent. They have done a good job adding depth and improving their goaltending. The supporting cast is in place. Now, can these four stars finally put it all together and bring a cup to Toronto?

Depth- Talking about the supporting cast, it was huge for the Leafs that Max Domi returned, but perhaps even bigger that they boosted their blueline depth by adding Tanev, Ekman Larsson, and Hakanpaa. These additions need to compliment the stars in place and Toronto and if they do, the Maple Leafs could be a force to be reckoned with this season.

Toronto Maple Leafs Goalie Outlook

Ilya Samsonov, is gone leaving 38 more starts to be distributed to Joseph Woll and newly signed Alex Stolarz, both of whom were backups a season ago. Stolarz had an incredible season, leading the NHL in GA/G, allowing just 2.03 GA/G (albeit in the backup role). His .925 SV% also led the league and he posted a 16-7-2 record in his 27 appearances. Woll will likely keep improving as last year was the most ice time he has had in the NHL. It does help that they retained Martin Jones who can eat up another 20+ games as well. If they share the load, this goalie room could lead the Maple Leafs to the top of the Atlantic Division.

Grade: B+

Toronto Maple Leafs Key Schedule Stretch

November 5th-November 24th: This eight-game stretch includes seven games at home, the most such collection of games for Toronto this season. This time at home should boost the Maple Leafs with little travel and time to settle in after some early adjustments. The stretch starts with three straight home games, a road trip to Washington, and then the remaining four games. Their home games include Boston, Montreal, Detroit, Ottawa, Edmonton, Vegas, and Utah. Toronto will hope to walk away from this stretch with at least 10 points, which could give them some key tiebreakers while also resulting in building a lead in the division or making up significant ground, depending on where they are at in the standings before this stretch.

Toronto Maple Leafs Notable Odds

Stanley Cup Champions: +1500

Conference Winner: +650

Division Winner: +270

Vezina Trophy- Joseph Woll: +4000

Hart Trophy- Auston Matthews: +850

Hart Trophy- Mitch Marner: +10000

Toronto Maple Leafs Predictions

Early on, Toronto is one of my favorite teams heading into the season and I think they could put it all together and compete for the cup. There has to be tremendous pressure for the players, coaches, and execs alike as they head into what could be the final year of the Core Four. The front office did their job by adding a lot of complimentary pieces and boosting the goalie group. Matthews is always relevant to the Hart Trophy conversation, so getting him at +850 is solid value, while this Leafs team could win this division with Boston and Florida taking steps back. Outside of their division, Carolina got worse, leaving them and the Rangers as the early favorites in the Eastern Conference. I like this team to hit the over on the point total with relative ease and finally put it all together and make a deep run.

Over 101.5 Team Total Points

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