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2024 Toronto Blue Jays Predictions with World Series Odds and Season Win Total Picks

by Ryan Cobbett - 2/17/2024

Toronto Blue Jays predictions Cavan Biggio

Summary of Last Season

The Toronto Blue Jays fell one win short of 90, finishing with an 89-73 record en route to securing the final AL Wild Card spot in the playoffs. They fell to the Minnesota Twins in their only two playoff games, leading to an early exit. They did finish 10 games over .500 on the road, which was a key part of their making the playoffs last season.

The offense was, unfortunately, just average, despite being loaded with some of the league’s top players. You would think a lineup with George Springer, Vladimir Gurrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Matt Chapman, and a catching tandem of Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen would flourish, but they didn’t. None of those names slugged more than 26 homeruns, with Gurrero Jr. being the only hitter to surpass 80 RBIs, finishing with 94. Bichette was the only Blue Jays hitter who played in over 105 games with an OPS over .800. Toronto would go on to rank 11th in OPS, 16th in homeruns, 14th in runs, and 22nd in stolen bases.

The pitching was the real strong suit for this Blue Jays team. The team’s ERA of 3.78 ranked 4th in the MLB, while also ranking 10th in WHIP, 2nd in strikeouts, and secured 51 saves which ranked 3rd in the league. Chris Bassitt amassed 200 innings and led the team with 21 quality starts. Bassitt, and fellow starters Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman, and Yusei Kikuchi, all posted sub 4.00 ERAs. Jordan Romano led the team with 36 saves on the year. All of this success despite the disappearance of their prior ace Alek Manoah, who was sent to the minors for some time and recorded a 5.87 ERA in 19 starts.

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Toronto Blue Jays Key Additions/Losses

Unfortunately for Toronto, they were one of the few teams who swung, and missed, big on Shohei Ohtani. Toronto seemed to have all their eggs in one basket with that one. And after failing to sign the Japanese star, their offseason seems incredibly mild. Matt Chapman, Brandon Belt, Whit Merrifield, Hyun Jin Ryu, and Jordan Hicks all left via free agency.

With all that production off the books, Toronto signed the band aids of Justin Turner, Isaiah Kiner-Falefa, as well as chancing on international superstar pitcher Yariel Rodriguez.

Toronto Blue Jays Prospect Outlook

Toronto currently has two prospects ranking in MLBs Top 100 rankings, which is not good when depth seems to be an issue for the club. SS Orelvis Martinez currently ranks 89th but seems to be a long shot to make the roster out of spring with Bichette, Kiner-Falefa, Santiago Espinal, Cavan Biggio, and Davis Schneider in front of him. He may be most impactful as a trade chip as the club tries to add offense later in the season.

Schneider is 25 now and has got some MLB service time under his belt last season, so some may not consider him a prospect, but he is an exciting young name to keep your eye on as the season unfolds.

Toronto Blue Jays X-Factors

Depth- Martinez is blocked by a lot of names that will fill up the infield for Toronto but doesn’t mean they will all produce. As mentioned earlier, the offense struggled last season and looks even worse on paper heading into the new campaign. The catching tandem will be dependable, but the bench will be a huge question mark, especially in the event of an injury to one of their everyday players.

Alek Manoah- Manoah was awful last season. His fastball had no life and dropped around three MPH on average. He finished with a near 6.00 ERA, as the former ace had a short leash with his average outing lasting less than five innings per start. The pitching rotation continued to dominate in his absence, but Toronto may be relying on Manoah’s success this season with the weakened offense.

Toronto Blue Jays Expectations

This club is a fringe playoff team on paper. The AL East is weaker than it was a season ago, which plays into the Blue Jays favor. However, with two strong AL West clubs, the Blue Jays could find themselves in a race with the Yankees and Rays for the final wild card spot. The offense will also be expected to improve with Bichette and Gurrero Jr. needing to take on more of a role in the team’s success. For Toronto and the upcoming free agents at seasons end, it is go time. Many should expect them to make some moves soon to add to their club and compete for a division title or make a run in the playoffs.

Toronto Blue Jays Notable Odds:

World Series Champions- +2000

Pennant Winners- +1000

Division Winners- +440

AL MVP- Vladimir Gurrero Jr.- +2200

Toronto Blue Jays Predictions

I think the Blue Jays have a similar script to the New York Yankees. They have the pieces to be a successful club, but they are heavily reliant on some big ‘ifs.’ Springer, Gurrero Jr, and Bichette form a top offensive trio on paper, but they all need to maintain health and increase production from a year ago. The rotation needs to repeat their dominance, but they lack an ace that is necessary for a playoff run. I expect this club to fail to reach their projected win total and see a repeat of an early playoff exit, at best.

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