Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

2024 NCAA Tournament Bracket Advice and Tips

by Mike Allen - 3/19/2024

NCAA Tournament bracket advice Terrence Shannon Jr. Illinois Illini

The 2024 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament bracket has been carefully constructed by the selection committee, and I'm sure you have already at the least glanced at it.

How much fun is this every year?

There aren’t many things that are bringing our divided country together nowadays, but the bridge that is bracketology and March Madness is still holding strong. Anyone can do it, and it isn’t uncommon for expert brackets to be busted by the Sweet 16, while your grandmother is somehow in the top 3%.

Whether you want to throw down several units of your bankroll every round of the tournament or simply submit your picks for free on a site like ESPN or Yahoo and hope for the best, you will be a part of a national tradition.

So, what is the best way to go about filling out your bracket? I have heard and read many different opinions. Some people are just letting A.I. do their predictions for them. Hey, if you’re making money that way, then good on ya mate, as they say down under.

To me, that’s boring, though. It’s always more fun when the picks are ours. We get to build a house in just a couple of days and then see if it can withstand the plethora of tornados and other natural disasters coming its way in the form of bracket-busting 12 and 13 seeds.

I remember my first boss in the Air Force at Andrews Air Force Base in the DC area. He was a University of Maryland grad, and in 2002, the guy predicted the Sweet 16 perfectly, as well as the Final Four and the eventual National Champion, his Maryland Terrapins.

It doesn’t get much better than that. Shout out to Sgt. Rinker.

I actually gave him a ring yesterday to get any insight that I could pass on to you guys, and he told me not to overthink every game and to just go with my gut when you are feeling indecisive.

Doc’s Sports offers college basketball expert picks for every game on our NCAA basketball predictions page.

The Basics

The Men's NCAA Basketball Tournament is made up of 68 teams. There are 36 automatic bids (conference champions) and 32 at-large bids. We have a total of 67 games, and that includes the First Four play-in games and the following 6 rounds of tournament play.

The Usual Suspects

I know what happened last year, but let’s not try to look too deeply into our crystal balls overthinking a 16 vs 1 seed matchup. Just bet the #1 seed. It is very, very rare to see a #16 or even a #15 get a win.

A #16 winning has happened only twice in the history of the tournament, and #2 winning has only happened 11 times.

Also, there are simply some teams who perform well in the tournament year after year. I’m sure you know who these programs are.

Over the past 4 decades, UConn, Kentucky, Kansas, Duke, North Carolina, or Villanova has won 60% of the NCAA Tournaments. We are without the Wildcats of Villanova this year, but those other squads are primed for a deep pursuit in 2024.

How Many Upsets Per Round?

The difference between a winning bracket and one that is respectable is picking those early-round upsets. It isn't easy deciding which of the infamous #12 seeds we think will take down a #5 seed in the first round.

Sure, you can stick with picking the higher seeds 90% of the time or more, and that may get you to the middle of the pack by the end of this. However, without risk, there is rarely a proper reward.

Don’t Ignore the Analytics and Betting Odds

This is pretty much self-explanatory. I’m not saying to just check the odds and bet the favorites. However, we are going to get stumped from time to time throughout this process, so don’t be shy about letting the sportsbooks and supercomputers do some of the work for you.

1st Round

If you want to pick upsets, the 1st round is your best bet. Every year, we see an average of 4.7 upsets in the opening round of the tournament. The #8 vs #9 seed games have, and always will be, coin flips. I'm not saying to make these completely uneducated guesses, but I wouldn't spend a lot of time here.

Some may think that the #12 seeds get the most upset wins, but it's the #10 seeds who win at about a 40% clip.

2nd Round

The 2nd round is when we could see a couple of those #2 seeds get the boot. A #2 loses out to a #10 seed more than once per tournament.

Historically, those #10 seeds are high performers as more of them have made the Sweet 16 than #8 or #9 seeds.

Sweet 16

The amount of upsets we see, as far as original seeding is concerned, decreases with each round. Of the 8 Sweet 16 games played each tournament, there are upsets only once every 3 years.

Stick with your gut, sure, but it isn’t the worst idea to let the seeding lead you through these later rounds.

Elite Eight

The Elite Eight doesn’t get as much attention as the Sweet 16, because we don’t have half the week to prepare for it.

Let’s hope you have a decent amount of #1 and #2 seeds making up your Elite Eight, because #1 seeds have a 34% chance to make the Final Four, while a #2 seed has a 20% chance.

After that, the percentages drop off significantly, with the probability of any #5 seed making it through the Elite 8 is just 7%.

Final Four

Historically, it pays to continue to pick the #1 and #2 seeds all the way to the championship. Also, once we get to the Final Four, teams seeded #3 through #6 perform win at roughly the same rate.

Have fun with your brackets, guys, and fill out several incorporating a few different strategies and see how you do. Bookmark the information, and we can use it again next year as we continue our strive for "mastery."

Get college basketball picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

Most Recent March Madness Betting

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers