Thursday Night Football Picks: Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Rams

by Mike Allen - 10/22/2024

This Thursday night from the City of Angels, the Rams have the privilege of hosting one of the league’s top teams, the Minnesota Vikings, who are coming off their first loss straight up and against the spread all season when they fell to their rival, the Detroit Lions.

This contest was a classic that came down to a missed extra point for Minnesota and a game winning field goal for the Lions.

While 98% of the NFL world was watching the Super Bowl rematch between the Niners and the Chiefs, Matt Stafford and the LA Rams somehow snuck by the lowly Las Vegas Raiders, 20-15. The Rams could have easily lost that game for several reasons. Vegas had 20 first downs yet were 3/15 attempting to convert on third down, they turned the ball over four times, and benched their starting quarterback. It was an ugly one, but the Rams got the W. Maybe we shouldn’t read into this performance too much. It was a nonconference look-ahead game.

That said, if we’re looking to bet against LA, there’s plenty meat on the bone. More on that in a minute.

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Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) at LA Rams (+3.5)

This line opened at (-3) for Minnesota, and you would expect at the very least a lot of public money to come in on the road favorites here. They didn’t look bad at all against the Detroit Lions. If they would’ve found a way to win, maybe they are overvalued and we fade them coming off the emotional victory on a short week. That’s what I was hoping for. If you like the Rams, I would just wait. The sharps understand level of competition and recency bias. I don’t think they’re jumping off this purple wagon just yet.

Moneyline

Vikings: -170

Rams: +150

There’s some value with this moneyline on Minnesota on this short week. I could see them climbing to nearly a 2-1 favorite by kickoff.

Point Total: 48

I don’t have a read on the total, especially without knowing the playing status of Rams star wideout, Cooper Kupp.

Vikings at Rams Betting Analysis

What an interesting matchup! Which young super-coach can turn his team around on just a few days’ rest? I don’t like to bet against Sean McVeigh as an underdog because even if my bet/team is cruising late in the second half, that guy will find a way to scheme up some sort of bull malarky to cover the spread.

He has the quarterback to do it. Stafford is one of the best QBs in the league and may be the very best at staying in the pocket against he blitz and delivering a good football. What’s so cool is we get to see him tested against Vikings’ DC Brian Flores, who brings the blitz as well as anyone.

Don’t shoot the messenger here, but the Rams defense is playing better than they have all season. They got healthier, switched up some x’s and o’s, over the past few weeks have been a different unit. They lost close ones to the Packers and Bears after their comeback win against the Niners. Those are three balanced teams.

That said, the net EPA per play ranks for the season are 5th for the Vikings and 25th for the Rams.

The Vikings are who they are to this point. They have been very consistent. I’ve thrown you several pitches on the Rams, so I don’t want to confuse you. It’s just an intriguing game.

The Rams offense matches up with the Minnesota defense quite well. I love the screen game for LA, the quick hitters to Kyron Williams and Kupp along with the opportunities to hit Tutu Atwell in space.

Vikings at Rams Betting Pick

Do we really want to bet against another road favorite right now? Road favorites are something like 20-1 since Week 5, against the spread. The Chargers finally ended the streak last night.

Let’s attack this one from a different angle. The Rams are 28th in the NFL in first half scoring, while the Vikings are 5th. The first half spread is just (-2.5). This takes the backdoor cover out of the equation. Let’s hope Aaron Jones and the Viking rushing attack get off to a fast start like they did against Detroit.

Pick: Vikings First Half (-2.5)

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Thursday Night Football Picks: Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Rams

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