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2024-25 Texas Longhorns Basketball Predictions and Odds to Win the National Championship

by Ryan Cobbett - 10/22/2024

Texas Longhorns basketball predictions Chendall Weaver

Texas was a solid team last season, but proved they could not hang around with the big boys on their schedule. They started the season winning 11 of their first 13 games, but their two losses were to #5 UConn and #8 Marquette. They proceeded to go 9-9 in conference play, going just 3-6 against ranked opponents. The Longhorns got knocked off in the first round of the Big 12 tournament, losing to Kansas State 78-74. Despite the early tournament loss, the committee had decided Texas had a resume worthy of a 7-Seed. In a defensive battle, the Longhorns knocked off the 10-seeded Colorado State Rams in the first round of March Madness. However, the Longhorns season came to an end in the following round as they were eliminated by the 2-Seed Tennessee Volunteers.

Max Abmas (16.8 PPG) and Dylan Disu (15.5 PPG) formed quite the dynamic quo for the Longhorns, as the two led the team in scoring, with Abmas finishing the season as one of the best free-throw shooters in the country, shooting 90% from the line. Despite being the center, Disu led the team with a 45.1% 3P%, cashing in on 41 of his 91 attempts from beyond the arc. As a team, the Longhorns ranked in the middle of the conference on both ends of the courts. They averaged 75.4 PPG, which ranked fifth in the conference, while finishing second in FT% and fourth in 3P%. On defense they allowed 68.9 PPG, which ranked sixth in the Big 12, on 42.6% shooting.

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Texas Longhorns Basketball Key Additions/Losses

Texas lost its two leading scorers as Abmas and Disu ran out of eligibility. The two Longhorns accounted for over 42% of the team’s offense last season. If losing those two stars wasn’t enough, Tyrese Hunter (11.1 PPG) transferred to Memphis while Dillon Mitchell (9.6/7.5) left for Cincinnati. In addition to the four key contributors, depth pieces Gavin Perryman (Vermont) and Chris Johnson (Stephen F. Austin) left as well.

All in all, the Longhorns lost their four top scorers and two of their best rebounders from last years squad. With a lot of shoes to fill, coach Rodney Terry got to work. The Longhorns needed scoring, and they got just that when they brought in guard Jordan Pope from Oregon State. Pope averaged 17.6 PPG last season for the Beavers while shooting over 37% from deep and 87.9% from the charity stripe. Joining Pope are fellow guards Julian Larry (11 PPG with Indiana State), Tramon Mark (16.2 PPG with Arkansas), and Malik Presley (Vanderbilt) as well as five-star shooting guard Tre Johnson who was the rated the fifth overall prospect in the nation. Texas also got to work rebuilding the front court as they brought in transfer forwards Arthur Kaluma (14.4 PPG with Kansas State) and Jayson Kent (13.5 PPG with Indiana State) while signing four-star forward Nicolas Codie (81st nationally) and three-star big man Jamie Vinson.

Texas Longhorns Basketball X-Factors

Depth- Texas went from having a lot of holes to having plentiful depth on their roster. Pope, Mark, and Johnson should actually be an upgrade from Abmas, Disu, and Hunter while Kent, and Larry join Chendall Weaver (6.2 PPG) as reliable minute eaters off the bench.  Kent and Larry were threats from beyond the arc last season with the Sycamores and though they will see a limited role compared to last year, the two should be able to provide Texas a spark when needed and keep the pressure on the opposition even when the Longhorns give Pope, Mark, and Johnson a break.

The SEC- Going from the Big 12 to the Southeastern Conference may not be as big of a jump on paper. Both are incredibly deep conferences with some powerhouse squads. However, Texas’ performance in conference play will be a thing to watch. Do the two conference actually matchup well on the court? If they can play to expectations, the Longhorns should be a Top Five team in their new conference.

Texas Longhorns Basketball Notable Games

Home- #3 UConn, #11 Auburn, #12 Tennessee, #13 Texas A&M, #16 Arkansas, #2 Alabama, #23 Kentucky

Away/Neutral- #13 Texas A&M, #21 Florida, #24 Ole Miss, #16 Arkansas

Texas Longhorns Basketball Key Odds:

NCAA Champion: +6000

Final Four: +1500

Conference Winner: +1700

Wooden Award: Tre Johnson - +9500

Wooden Award: Tramon Mark - +15000

Wooden Award: Arthur Kaluma - +18000

AP Top 25- 19th

Andy Katz’s Power 37- 27th

KenPom- 18th

Texas Longhorns Basketball Predictions

I am a big fan of the transfer additions that Terry made this offseason. Losing your top four scorers, and with that a presence like Abmas, it is always reasonable to expect a step back in the proceeding season. However, Terry has retooled the roster and should be much improved from their 20-11 regular season. The offensive potential of this team is incredibly undervalued as there are eight guys who are capable of consistently producing and they have the two Indiana State transfers who are dangerous sharpshooters off the bench. We will see how the conference move impacts this team, but I expect Texas to be a real threat to win the conference and they have all the tools necessary for a deep run. This is a Final Four team.

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