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2025 Tampa Bay Rays Predictions with World Series Odds and Season Win Total Picks

by Ryan Cobbett - 2/13/2025

Tampa Bay Rays predictions Shane McClanahan

After winning 99 games in 2023, the Tampa Bay Rays regressed in a big way last season. They went on to post an 80-82 record while finishing fourth in the AL East standings. This marked the end of a five-year playoff run. Though they cracked the 80-win mark, the Rays ended up finishing seven games better than their expected record of 73-89. This is largely due to their 30-22 record in one-run games and their 8-5 record in extra innings.

Despite being traded midway through the season, Isaac Paredes was tied with Brandon Lowe for the team lead in WAR. Lowe led the team with 21 homeruns and 56 runs while finishing second on the team in OPS and RBIs. Paredes, despite playing only 101 games with the Rays, led the team with a .792 OPS while also recording 16 homeruns and 55 RBIs. Though the offensive numbers didn’t look great for the Rays last season, they had seven players record double-digit steals. Jose Caballero led the team with 44 stolen bases, with Josh Lowe (25), Richie Palacios (19), Randy Arozarena (16), Jonny DeLuca (16), Taylor Walls (16), and Jose Siri (14) followed behind. They finished fourth in the league in stolen bases as a team. However, that was the extent of the positive numbers following this lineup. They finished 29th in runs, 28th in homeruns, and 29th in OPS.

The pitching was a different story. Despite missing their ace in Shane McClanahan last year, the Rays finished ninth in ERA and fourth in WHIP. Zack Littell led the team with a 2.7 WAR while also leading the club with 156.1 innings pitched. He was tied with Taj Bradley for a team-best 10 quality starts. Bradley led the team with 154 strikeouts while posting a 1.22 WHIP. Kevin Kelly and Edwin Uceta quietly became two of the best relievers in baseball for Tampa Bay last season. Kelly posted a 2.67 ERA across 70.2 innings while Uceta recorded a 1.51 ERA across 41.2 innings.

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Tampa Bay Rays Key Additions/Losses

After posting a 1.9 WAR last season, the Rays decided to ship Siri to the Mets, paving the way for DeLuca to be the team’s everyday center fielder. The Rays also non-tendered pitcher Tyler Alexander and outfielder Dylan Carlson. Tampa Bay also traded Jeffrey Springs to the Athletics for a trio of prospects.

The Rays have not yet made any major moves this offseason to improve their team. Though the return of McClanahan is huge but the lineup could use some help. The Rays added Eloy Jiminez to a minor league deal while also signing Danny Jansen. Those two signings could boost the bottom half of the lineup a bit. However, it has been a largely underwhelming offseason for the Rays.

Tampa Bay Rays Prospect Outlook

The Rays have the fifth ranked farm system in the MLB and have five players ranked in the MLB Top 100 Prospects rankings. Shortstop Carson Williams headlines this list as the ninth ranked prospect in the league. The 21-year-old will likely spend the year in the minors, but a trade of Lowe could open up a spot in the middle of the Rays infield and an upgrade defensively. First baseman Xavier Isaac follows Williams in the Rays system and is the 51st rated prospect in the league rankings. Infielder Brayden Taylor (67th) along with outfielders Tre’ Morgan (94th) and Theo Gillen (99th) round out the Top Five prospects in the Rays system, though none are expected to have an impact at the major league level this season.

Tampa Bay Rays X-Factors

Front Office- This is only an X-Factor related to the Rays projected win total. At 81.5, we would need to see the Rays improve by two wins. However, their expected record from last year shows that they would need to see a nine-win improvement. Outside of Brandon Lowe and Yandy Diaz, this lineup is not looking so hot. That’s a problem when both players are strong candidates to be moved at some point this season. Christopher Morel and Junior Caminero are solid future threats in this lineup, but I don’t think they will see improvements good enough to push the Rays closer to their projected win total. As for the rotation, a guy like McClanahan is special. When healthy he is one of the best pitchers in the league. However, the Rays did just trade Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers, so they have shown they are willing to deal the league’s best pitchers. The front office is the biggest X-Factor this season. On the flip side, their six-man rotation of McClanahan, Bradley, Ryan Pepiot, Littell, Shane Baz, and Drew Rasmussen is good enough to keep this team in the wild card hunt. This could potentially influence the front office to buy instead of selling, which would keep their two best bats in Rays attire.

Tampa Bay Rays Expectations

Expectations are light for Tampa Bay this season. They could very well finish in last place in the division standings and near the bottom of the league standings. The lineup was one of the worst in the MLB last season, and they did not improve at all and are depending on a lot of unproven prospects and young big-league talent to develop into solid hitters. Their starting rotation is going to be solid if they can stay healthy, but it alone won’t be enough to get the Rays to the level their fans want to be at. Not only that, but this team is going to be displaced due to a hurricane destroying their stadium, which will only add to the strains this club will see next season. Tampa Bay will miss the playoffs again this season and are likely going to position themselves around their strong farm system.

Tampa Bay Rays Notable Odds:

Win Total: 81.5

World Series Champions- +4000

Pennant Winners- +1600

Division Winners- +900

AL MVP- Junior Caminero +7000

AL MVP- Yandy Diaz +9000

AL Cy Young- Shane McClanahan +2200

AL Cy Young- Ryan Pepiot +3500

AL Rookie of the Year- Carson Williams +5500

2025 Tampa Bay Rays Predictions

Getting McClanahan at +2200 to win the AL Cy Young is great value and worth some couch change at the very least. Through his first three seasons, the southpaw recorded a 3.02 ERA, a 8.3 WAR, and has amassed 456 strikeouts, all while holding a career 33-16 record. He has the stuff to be a 200-strikeout pitcher and if he returns to full strength, he has the potential to be a Top Five pitcher in the MLB. Outside of McClanahan, the futures are not attractive, as this team is way below the playoff tier. In regard to the season win total, take the under. This team was expected to go 73-89 based on their numbers last season, and they didn’t improve much.  

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