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2024-25 Tampa Bay Lightning Predictions and Odds to Win Stanley Cup Finals

by Ryan Cobbett - 9/16/2024

Tampa Bay Lightning predictions Nikita Kucherov

Last season, Tampa Bay just missed out on the final guaranteed spot in the Atlantic Division, finishing fourth with 98 points, just four behind Toronto. However, they comfortably finished in the top wild card spot, setting up a date with the eventual Stanley Cup Champion Florida Panthers. The Lightning never stood a chance, losing in five games with a -6-goal differential. Tampa Bay struggled against their division opponents, going just 12-9-5 within the Atlantic.

The Lightning would go on to finish in the Top Five in scoring, recording 3.51 GF/G while also having the best Power Play unit in the NHL, as they cashed in on 28.6% of their man advantages. Tampa Bay also had a Top Five Penalty Kill, as they killed 83.3% of their opponents Power Play chances. Right wing Nikita Kucherov played out of his mind last season, leading the league in points with 144. He finished with 100 assists, which tied him with Connor McDavid for the top spot in the NHL, while also finishing 10th in the league with 44 goals. Brayden Point led the team in goals with 46, while Steven Stamkos added another 40. Point and Stamkos finished second and third on the team in points finished with 90 and 91, respectively. Victor Hedman and Brandon Hagel also had solid years, as they both finished with 75 or more points.

The weirdest part about the Lightning’s season last year is their struggles in the net. Tampa Bay allowed 3.26 GA/G, which ranked 24th in the league, and their .896 SV% ranked 28th. Andrei Vasilevskiy still posted solid numbers, going 30-20-2, but his 2.90 GA/G mark was the highest in his career, while his .900 SV% was the lowest of his 10-year career. His backups, Jonas Johansson and Matt Tomkins, went a combined 15-9-6 allowing a combined 3.35 GA/G, with a .891 SV%.

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Seasons come and go, so now it’s time to take a look at what we can expect from the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2024-25:

Tampa Bay Lightning Key Additions/Losses

Tampa Bay lost quite a bit of production this offseason, with no loss larger than long-time fan favorite Steven Stamkos departing for Nashville. In addition, with Stamkos’ departure, the Lightning also lost rental Anthony Duclair (15 points in 17 games with TB), along with role pieces in Matt Dumba, Tyler Motte, and Calvin de Haan. They also traded away Tanner Jeannot, Mikhail Sergachev, and a third-round pick this offseason.

The Lightning used that third-round pick to buy the rights of star left wing Jake Guentzel, who ended up signing a seven-year deal with Tampa Bay. In addition to Guentzel, the Lightning brought in former first-round pick in 20-year-old Conor Geekie, who will be a nice depth piece along with forward Zemgus Girgensons (14 points) and Cam Atkinson (28 points). They also brought back blueliner Ryan McDonagh, who had 32 points with Nashville last season.

Tampa Bay Lightning X-Factors

Depth- The Lightning have one of the best top lines in the league with Guentzel, Point, and Kucherov. However, there is not a ton of strength behind them. Based on last year’s numbers, this top line would have accounted for 24.3% of their offensive production. Hagel, Anthony Cirelli, and Atkinson make up the second line, which features two 20+ goal scorers, but it is not nearly as strong as some of the second lines on other teams. Not only that, but there are a lot of injury prone players on this team as Guentzel, Atkinson, Connor Sheary, Girgensons, all failed to play in more than 70 games last season. Injuries to Guentzel or Atkinson, not to mention any of Guentzel’s running mates could totally derail the Lightnings season.

Tampa Bay Lightning Goalie Outlook

The Lightning are running it back with the same goalies as last season in hopes of better numbers. Vasilevskiy had the worst season of his career last year, as the now 30-year-old hopes he can improve on his 2023-24 numbers and keep the Lightning competitive in the ensuing campaign. Vasilevskiy did miss some time with an injury last season, limiting him to just 52 starts last season. However, if he can stay healthy, he could see the number of starts get back into the 60’s like the previous two seasons. Johansson and Tomkins are still slated as the backups ahead of this season, so Tampa Bay hopes Vasilevskiy can get the bulk of the workload and stay healthy this season.

Grade: B

Tampa Bay Lightning Key Schedule Stretch

October 11th-October 22nd: Tampa Bay has an incredibly tough start to the season, which means we should get an idea of what this team is made of from the get-go. Their first seven games include five playoff opponents from last season, with the other two games featuring playoff hopefuls this year. They open the season with back-to-back games against Carolina (one at home, one on the road). From there, they have home games against Vancouver and Vegas, before going on a three-game road trip with stops in Ottawa, Toronto, and New Jersey. This is a tough stretch to begin the season, but it could go a long way into setting the expectations of the year to come.

October 28th- This game will be the return of the beloved Steven Stamkos as the much-improved Predators come to Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay Lightning Notable Odds

Stanley Cup Champions: +1700

Conference Winner: +850

Division Winner: +430

Hart Trophy- Nikita Kucherov: +1800

Hart Trophy- Brayden Point: +15000

Vezina Trophy- Andrei Vasilevskiy: +1200

Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction

Despite the losses, I like the Lightning to reach 100 points and grab a guaranteed spot in the Atlantic. First and foremost, Boston and Florida should both take a step back from last year’s numbers, meaning there are more points for Tampa Bay and Toronto to grab. Additionally, Vasilevskiy is heading into the season healthy. And if he can get back into the 60-starts range, I think the Lightning will see the two-point improvement needed to hit the over on this year’s point total. Their top line is elite, and their netminder should return to elite form. At +430 to win their division, there is tremendous value. Though I do not think they win the Atlantic, this team has what it takes to make a deep run in the playoffs if they draw the right matchups and stay healthy.

Over 98.5 Team Total Points

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