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2024 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Predictions with Odds to Win the Super Bowl

by Ryan Cobbett - 7/30/2024

Tampa Bay Buccaneers predictions Baker Mayfield

Last season went better than expected for Tampa Bay as the Baker Mayfield experience led them to a division title and to the second round of the playoffs. Tampa Bay started the season 3-1 before heading into their Week 5 bye week. The bye week almost had a reverse effect for the Bucs as they proceeded to go just 1-6 over their next seven games. However, December brought a change of momentum for the team, as they finished the season going 5-1 over their last six games. Tampa Bay would then head into the playoffs facing the Eagles in the first round, a team they lost to in the regular season. However, Tampa Bay pulled off a surprising victory in Round 1, stomping the Eagles 32-9. Their season would end in a heartbreaking 31-23 loss to the Lions in the next round.

Baker Mayfield had some big shoes to fill down in Tampa Bay, but last season he proved that he could lead this offense. Mayfield ranked ninth in the NFL in passing yards, finishing with 4,044 yards in the air. He recorded 28 passing touchdowns and added another on the ground. He did all this while taking the sixth most sacks last season. The run game struggled and really held this team back. Their 1,509 rushing yards last season ranked dead last in the league. Rachaad White led the way with 990 yards and six touchdowns. Mayfield and wide receiver Chris Godwin recorded the only other rushing touchdowns for the Bucs. Godwin and Mike Evans did form one of the league’s best wide receiver tandems once again last season, with both guys recording more than 1,000 yards. Evans led the way with 1,255 yards and 13 touchdowns. His 13 touchdowns were tied with Tyreek Hill for the league lead. Godwin would finish with 1,024 yards, but just two touchdowns.

This defense was a confusing unit to lock down. They allowed nearly 350 YPG, but they did a good job keeping the opposition from scoring as they allowed just 19.1 PPG, which was good for tied for the sixth best in the NFL. They did dominate the run game, allowing just 95.3 YPG on the ground which put them in the Top 5 in the league. Lavonte David and Antoine Winfield Jr. were the only two to record over 100 tackles on the year, with David leading the way with 134. David also led the defense with 17 TFLs. This team did a good job finding the quarterback in the backfield as they totaled 48 sacks on the season. Yaya Diaby led the defense with 7.5 sacks, while Winfield Jr. recorded six. Vita Vea (5.5), David (4.5), Barrett (4.5), and Calijah Kancey (4) all recorded four or more sacks. 

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers Key Additions/Losses

Linebackers Devin White and Shaquil Barrett are gone. As if replacing seven sacks and 135 tackles wasn’t already hard enough, the Bucs lost depth in the secondary as cornerback Carlton Davis III has also found a new home. That’s nearly 200 tackles from last season gone.

They did bring in safety Jordan Whitehead and cornerback Tavierre Thomas to round out the secondary. On offense, Tampa Bay bolstered its offensive line by bringing in interior linemen Sua Opeta and Ben Bredeson.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers New Kids on the Block

They did have seven selections in the draft and seemed more focused on the offense than the defense. They drafted Graham Barton out of Duke, hoping he could replace Ryan Jensen at center. They drafted two explosive college playmakers in running back Bucky Irving from Oregon and wide receiver Jalen McMillan out of Washington. These guys will provide solid depth for this offense around Mayfield. Tampa Bay also took edge rusher Chris Braswell with the hope that he can plug into outside linebacker in their system and add to the pass that was weakened with Barrett’s departure.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers X-Factors

Baker Mayfield – He has weapons around him; there is no denying that. And he did have a career year for Tampa Bay, but is that repeatable? With no significant changes, and maybe even improved, the answer is yes, he should be able to do it again. However, if we have learned anything about post Oklahoma Mayfield, it’s that he is incredibly inconsistent, and there is no depth behind him. Whether it be an injury or poor play, backup Kyle Trask did not record one completion last season. Much like the Saints, the whole season seems to rest on the quarterback’s shoulders.

Front Office – This year could be interesting for the Bucs in terms of the direction of the franchise. On paper, this squad looks far from competitive, but they do have some interesting pieces to move. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin could be attractive to playoff hopeful teams, while the defense has a name or two that could bring in a nice return. Will the Bucs begin to rebuild?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Notable Odds

Super Bowl Winner: +6500

NFC Champion: +3500

NFC South Winner: +310

To Make Playoffs: +152

NFL MVP- Baker Mayfield: +7500

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Schedule Breakdown

Predicted Win Total: 7.5 Games

Their schedule is not as friendly as their division counterparts. It is not ideal to play host to Philadelphia, Baltimore, and San Francisco, while also having to travel to Detroit, Kansas City, and Dallas. At first glance, there are four wins on the schedule (DEN, WAS, CAR, LV), and they should still pick up the win at Carolina. With seven games falling into the toss up category, and five of those games are on the road. They would have to go 3-4 in those games and take care of business against Carolina both times to find themselves on the north side of the projected win total of 7.5. With that being stated, this defense got worse, and they lack depth on both sides of the ball. I do not see this being a fun season for the Bucs, and with the possibility of a rebuild, this is one win total to stay away from.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Predictions

Not a lot of fun in Tampa Bay this season. I project this team to finish with a losing record. They are putting too much stock in Baker Mayfield to repeat a career year. They have no run game, so their offensive success rises and falls with Mayfield’s performance. As mentioned, the defense took a step back this offseason. And if they get off to a slow start, they could kick the can down the road and turn their attention to 2025 and beyond. I am taking under on the win total this season and would guess that some big names depart from Tampa Bay midseason.

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