Sweet 16 Bracket Picks: Mapping Out the Eventual National Champion

by Ryan Cobbett - 3/25/2025

Sweet 16 bracket picks Caleb Love Arizona Wildcats

There are no more perfect brackets as we head into the Sweet 16 round. However, we all get a second chance here to polish off the back half of the tournament. Unfortunately for lovers of total chaos, this is the first time since 2007 that we didn’t have an 11 Seed or worse reach the Sweet 16 round. The Arkansas Razorbacks bring some intrigue as a worst seed to make it to this point after they were able to knock off St. Johns and Kansas. As we all look to make up for falling for the hype of High Point or VCU or bandaging the wounds from the early losses of St. Johns and Wisconsin, here is a look at how the second half of the tournament will go.

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Sweet 16

No. 6 Seed: BYU Cougars vs No. 2 Seed: Alabama Crimson Tide

There are few teams that are as hot as the BYU Cougars. At times, they have looked like the best team in the country, and they have proven more consistent down the stretch. They are shooting 40.6% from beyond the arc while shooting just under 50% overall. Alabama looked less than impressive in the first round against Robert Morris, but their relentless scoring capabilities allowed them to wear down the stout defense of Saint Mary’s. One key note in this game is going to be the play at the perimeter. Alabama has yet to face a solid three-point shooting team and BYU has six guys, who are averaging more than 15 MPG, that all are shooting 35.5% or better from deep. Both teams are hovering at or around 85 PPG and neither team plays great defense so expect this to be an entertaining shootout with a whole lot of threes.

My Pick: BYU +190

No. 4 Seed: Maryland Terrapins vs No. 1 Seed: Florida Gators

Neither of these teams had it easy in the Round of 32 and each squad narrowly escaped upsets, winning their games by just one possession. Maryland needed a buzzer beater from Derik Queen to escape the Colorado State Rams while Florida used a clutch three from Walter Clayton Jr. to sink the defending national champions. The swinging factor here is going to be if Florida can shut down the Maryland deep threat. The Gators held opponents to just 29.3% shooting from deep during the regular season and conference tournament and have held their first two opponents to just 21% from deep. If the Gators can limit Rodney Rice and Selton Miguel’s impact from deep and force Maryland to win inside, it will be a long game for the Terps.

My Pick: Florida -290

No. 4 Seed: Arizona Wildcats vs No. 1 Seed: Duke Blue Devils

The rematch is set between these two schools who previously met back in November where the Blue Devils invaded Tucson and left with a 14-point victory. Duke has been consistent all season in dominating their opponents. With Cooper Flagg avoiding any major injury issues, the Blue Devils look like the best team in the country right now. They have run through the first two rounds of this tournament with ease posting a +57-point differential as they are averaging 91 PPG and allowing just 57.5 PPG. Baylor and Mount St. Mary’s shot a combined 33.5% against the Blue Devils. As for Arizona, they have shot 49% from deep through the first two rounds and have totaled 15 blocks. Caleb Love knows the Duke program well from his time at UNC and will need to play hero in this one if the Wildcats are to have a shot at pulling off an upset.

My Pick: Duke -500

No. 10 Seed: Arkansas Razorbacks vs No. 3 Seed: Texas Tech Red Raiders

Arkansas has been able to take down two powerhouses in route to their Sweet 16 matchup against the Red Raiders. Unfortunately for the Razorbacks, they are about to run into a Texas Tech team that only plays dominant defense, but they also run an efficient offense. If Boogie Fland can find his stride then the Red Raiders may be in trouble, but so far, his impact has been limited in his first two games back. These two have had different paths of getting here as Texas Tech has beaten an 11 and 14 seed while Arkansas has had to take down a seven and two seed. This may be one of the best Sweet 16 matchups as it will come down to the wire, but Texas Tech and JT Toppin will find a way to win.

My Pick: Texas Tech -240

No. 6 Seed: Ole Miss Rebels vs No. 2 Seed: Michigan State Spartans

This is going to be the best Sweet 16 matchup. Ole Miss has been the best three-point shooting team throughout the tournament, and they will take on a Michigan State team who plays the best perimeter defense in the country. The Spartans held opponents to just 27.8% shooting from deep this season while the Rebels have been shooting 49% from deep in the tournament and shot 57.9% in their last game against No. 3 Seed Iowa State. Michigan State should have no problem controlling the boards in this one as Ole Miss struggles to rebound the ball, but if the Rebels can bring their momentum into the tournaments second weekend, then no one will beat them. The Rebels have six scorers capable of being game changers and they should be able to keep the pressure on Michigan State. It will be a close game, but the Rebels will find a way to win.

My Pick: Ole Miss +150

No. 3 Seed: Kentucky Wildcats vs No. 2 Seed: Tennessee Volunteers

The Vols locker room is fully aware of their season record against the Kentucky Wildcats. Despite largely dominating their SEC schedule, one team that they failed to beat were the Wildcats who went 2-0 with a +16-point differential against Tennessee. Kentucky shot 50% from deep in their two games against the Volunteers which is something to note. It is unlikely the Wildcats can do that a third time here. Tennessee has also been playing incredible defense throughout the tourney, holding opponents to just 60 PPG. Chaz Lanier has also upped his game in the tournament and should keep his squad from facing the season sweep.

My Pick: Tennessee -190

No. 5 Seed: Michigan Wolverines vs No. 1 Seed: Auburn Tigers

The Wolverines are 5-0 over their last five but have walked away with just a +40-point differential across those games. Auburn is just 3-2 over their last five and have not looked great in their first two games in the tournament. Auburn has had some slow starts late in the season and it is reasonable to think it will catch up with them eventually. Creighton’s Ryan Kalkbrenner limited Johni Broome’s impact in the Round of 32 and Broome will now have to go up against two seven-footers in Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin. Both players have averaged 30 MPG or more and will give the Tigers some trouble in the paint. A key player in this game is Roddy Gayle Jr. who is coming off a 4/6 game from deep and adding 26 points off the bench for Michigan. If he can get going from beyond the arc and open things up for Wolf and Goldin, Michigan may take down Auburn.

My Pick: Michigan +320

No. 4 Seed: Purdue Boilermakers vs No. 1 Seed: Houston Cougars

This one is simple. The Cougars’ defense will be too much for the Purdue Boilermakers and their run will end in the Sweet 16. Purdue has benefited greatly from Clemson’s first round loss as the Boilermakers have had to face just a 12 and 13 seed. Houston struggled a bit in the second half against a solid Gonzaga team, but L.J. Cryer’s 30-point performance pushed the Cougars past the Bulldogs. Houston plays shutdown defense, but their offense shouldn’t be slept on either as they have some dangerous sharpshooters. Purdue has faced little resistance so far in this tournament, but they are about to run into a brick wall here. Look for Cryer and J’Wan Roberts to continue to dominate the opposition.

My Pick: Houston -380

Elite Eight Matchups

No. 6 Seed: BYU Cougars vs No. 1 Seed: Duke Blue Devils

The Cougars will have pulled off to incredible upsets to get to this Elite Eight matchup against the Blue Devils, but their luck will run out here. It’s one thing to have Cooper Flagg running the show and another when you pair Flagg with Tyrese Proctor who has been phenomenal during the tournament. Proctor is averaging 22 PPG through their first two contests and is 13/17 from beyond the arc. If he keeps shooting like this, you may as well just start calling Duke the campions now. BYU will need to get this game to a shootout to have a chance here, but the Blue Devils defense should stifle the Cougars’ scoring ability and should keep them from getting hot.

My Pick: Duke (+220 to win National Championship)

No. 3 Seed: Texas Tech Red Raiders vs No. 1 Seed: Florida Gators

Florida will get back on track in the Sweet 16 in a tough and physical game against Maryland and then will start to build some more momentum in this one after avoiding a scare from the UConn in the Round of 32. Though the Red Raiders have a solid defense, the Gators will prove to be too physical for Texas Tech and they will pull away late. Florida had their one scare against UConn, but don’t expect the Gators to be slow going forward. Texas Tech would have to play out of this world just to have a chance to compete with Florida.

My Pick: Florida (+420 to win National Championship)

No. 2 Seed: Tennessee Volunteers vs No. 1 Seed: Houston Cougars

I can’t go all chalk picks here that would be unwise given the nature of the tournament. Picking a No. 2 Seed over a No. 1 Seed isn’t exactly unheard of, but it would be a bit of a shock to see Houston miss out on the Final Four. This Elite Eight matchup screams defense as Tennessee and Houston play some of the best defense in the country. The difference here will be the guard play and the perimeter defense. Tennessee is slightly better at defending against three-point shots than Houston is. Lanier has picked up his game when it matters most, and Zakai Zeigler continues to play the ‘Robin’ role to perfection as he has averaged 9.0 APG so far in the tournament while also scoring 27 total points. Felix Okpara and Igor Milicic Jr. match up well against the undersized Roberts down low which gives Tennessee the ingredients to steal a win here and knock off Houston.

My Pick: Tennessee (+1700 to win National Championship)

No. 6 Seed: Ole Miss Rebels vs No. 5 Seed: Michigan Wolverines

Now this Elite Eight matchup is anything but chalk. In order for this to happen, the Wolverines would have to take down the number one overall seed in Auburn while the Rebels would have to escape the clutches of the stout Spartans defense. However, Ole Miss is the best three-point shooting team in the world right now and the Wolverines matchup favorably against Auburn and can take Broome out of the game. In this matchup, the Rebels would be heavily reliant on getting hot from deep again while keeping the pace of play up and in their favor. These Wolverines have weaknesses, and Ole Miss has a deep roster full of scorers that can keep the pressure on and overcome the Wolverines defense.

My Pick: Ole Miss (+7500 to win National Championship)

Final Four

No. 6 Seed: Ole Miss Rebels vs No. 1 Seed: Florida Gators

Here is where the magic stops for Chris Beard and his Rebels. They will run into a Florida team who has their momentum back and are ready to return to the championship game for the first time since 2007. Florida dominated Ole Miss in their regular season finale as they beat them by 19 points as Alex Condon was able to take advantage of the size difference as he posted a 17/15 double-double in just 23 minutes of play. Florida will keep the Rebels from getting hot from beyond the arc and end their magical run in the Final Four.

My Pick: Florida Gators

No. 2 Seed: Tennessee Volunteers vs No. 1 Seed: Duke Blue Devils

Unfortunately for the SEC, their impressive tournament turnout will end without an SEC vs SEC championship game. Duke has all the answers right now and they will be able to get past the stout Tennessee defense. Duke’s scoring defense ranked ahead of Tennessee’s this season while the Blue Devils scoring ability is on another level compared to the Volunteers. The Blue Devils will also have the edge in the rebounding game and should be able to create some key second chance opportunities to seal the game. Duke has the stars and the defense to end Tennessee’s run.

My Pick: Duke Blue Devils

Championship Game

No. 1 Seed: Florida Gators vs No. 1 Seed: Duke Blue Devils

Yes, I had to go back to chalk picks here for the championship game, but you cannot argue that these are not the two best rosters in the country who are also playing some of their best basketball at the right time. Florida’s close call with UConn will only fuel this team going forward while Duke has won their past three games by an average margin of 22.7 points. We would see the exciting matchup between the Flagg/Proctor duo and the Clayton Jr./Condon duo. Unfortunately for Gators fans, you have to give Flagg and Proctor the edge here. It would be heavy on the shoulders of the freshman Flagg, but he is already proven to be a strong candidate for the number one overall pick in the NBA Draft, and he will seal his college legacy with a championship win.

My Pick: Duke Blue Devils

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Sweet 16 Bracket Picks: Mapping Out the Eventual National Champion

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