2024 Super Bowl Wide Receiver Props and Expert Betting Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 1/31/2024

Super Bowl wide receiver props odds and predictions Rashee Rice Kansas City Chiefs

The NFL quarterbacks steal most of the offensive spotlight, but a solid set of wide receivers can elevate a mediocre quarterback to superstardom. The 49ers have countless elite options for Brock Purdy to choose from, and Patrick Mahomes’ ability to spread the ball, and connect with anyone in a Chiefs uniform, is one of the reasons he’s a future hall of famer. There is plenty of money to be made in the wide receiver props market for the Super Bowl, including a juicy +600 prop on the horizon. Let’s dive in.

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San Francisco 49ers: Brandon Aiyuk

Brandon Aiyuk led the team in the regular season with 75 catches for 1,342 yards. His ability to effectively run routes and create just the few inches of separation he needs to make a catch has seen him become Purdy’s number one option down the field. While he may not have the same open field abilities some of his teammates have, Aiyuk is the purest receiver on the 49ers roster, and his steady hands will certainly be called upon on Sunday evening.

Aiyuk’s line is set to 63.5 receiving yards, and 4.5 receptions. In the regular season and playoffs, he’s gone over the receiving line 9/18 times, and his receptions prop exactly half the time as well. These are clearly pretty accurate lines, but his matchup against the Chiefs secondary has me eyeballing a very specific set of bets for the star wideout.

First of all, the Chiefs secondary is one of the best at staying stride for stride with even the best receivers in the league. Against the Ravens, there were countless times that Lamar Jackson spent a few seconds in the pocket, scrambled to his right, just to look up and see lockdown coverage on his only targets. Expecting Aiyuk to consistently pick up mid-length receptions feels like a tall task against the Chiefs. And considering he’s usually the deeper threat in San Francisco, his receptions line feels a little high. Aiyuk will not be called on in the slant game, as Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle are all far more suited for those types of throws. Instead, When Aiyuk does get targeted, it will be with shots down the field.

The best way to target Aiyuk, is to take Under his 4.5 receptions, but Over his 63.5 yards prop. I expect Aiyuk and Purdy to connect for at least one big shot down the field, which could be enough to cash this over. However, expecting 5+ catches against the best secondary in the league will be too much to ask for Aiyuk. He’ll be impactful down the field but won’t be getting the same quantity of targets as he’s used to.

Predicted stat line: 4 catches, 84 yards

Pick: Brandon Aiyuk Over 63.5 Receiving Yards

Pick: Brandon Aiyuk Under 4.5 Receptions

Parlay those two picks for a juicy +850 payout, something Aiyuk has done twice this season, including against the Lions!

San Francisco 49ers: Deebo Samuel

Deebo Samuel dealt with some late season injury problems. However, after a full two weeks off, he should be pretty close to 100% on Sunday night. Samuel was a consistent target for the 49ers, with 60 catches for 892 yards. His ability to create plays after the catch is like few other players in the league, and the dynamic wideout is capable of turning a game on its head with a moment's notice.

In the Super Bowl, Samuel is sitting with a line of 53.5 yards, 4.5 receptions, and a nice +155 price tag to haul in his 8th touchdown of the year. In the regular season, Samuel eclipsed his yards total in 9/17 games, but his receptions prop in just 7/17 appearances. Deebo is now the unofficial WR2 in San Francisco, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a critical part of the 49ers offense.

The Chiefs secondary is full of the best route runners in the league. So, while obvious separation down the field is unlikely to consistently materialize, Samuel can create big chunk plays off of slants or short screen passes. His ability to function like a solid pass catching running back has made him the most versatile player on the 49ers, and that’s saying a lot when he shares a locker room with McCaffrey.

Samuel’s receiving yards and receptions feel a little bit too high, and I’ll be taking the Under on his yards. Samuel may be able to pick up easy catches close to the line of scrimmage, which has me hesitant to take his receptions under, and I’ll instead look to the yards. I know Samuel has the capabilities to break out for a big run after a short catch. However, at this price, I have no choice but to take the Under at 53.5 receiving yards.

While I don’t expect Samuel to get big chunk yards in the passing game, I am absolutely loving his touchdown price at +155 odds. Samuel’s ability to get involved in intricate run plays has turned him into a dual threat to score in the air or on the ground. Samuel has been putting in work for the 49ers yet doesn’t have a postseason touchdown to his name this year. I expect that to change as Samuel will be a key instrument in unlocking the Chiefs red zone defense, and I expect him to find the endzone at least once.

Predicted stat line: 5 catches, 39 yards, touchdown

Pick: Deebo Samuel Under 53.5 Receiving Yards

Pick: Deebo Samuel Touchdown +155

Kansas City Chiefs: Rashee Rice

It’s hard to imagine where this Chiefs team would be had they not selected Rashee Rice in the second round in last year’s draft. The rookie wideout is second on the team with 938 receiving yards, and 79 catches, trailing only Travis Kelce for the team lead. Kelce and Rice are the only two pass catchers with 500+ yards on the Chiefs, and there is no doubt they will both be called upon early and often.

Rice has been quietly putting together a fantastic season. And while everyone loves to point out he gets to play with Patrick Mahomes, the plays he’s making with the ball in his hands has nothing to do with Mahomes. Countless times throughout the year, Rice has been able to make a man miss in the open field and pick up dozens of extra yards. The 49ers secondary is no joke, but they have struggled with open field tackling as of late. If Rice can break away for a big gain, his 66.5-yard total will be well on its way to cashing.

While I am all over his Over, the play I like best for Rice is for him to simply find the endzone at +140 odds. In the Super Bowl, players like Rice and Samuel are fantastic touchdown options, as coaches will come up with their best, and safest, red zone plays, and dynamic receivers like these pairs are great candidates to dial something up for. Rice leads the team with 7 receiving touchdowns this season, and a little trickery in the backfield could lead to a walk-in touchdown for Rice.

Predicted stat line: 7 catches, 79 yards, 2 touchdowns

Pick: Rashee Rice Over 66.5 Receiving Yards

Pick: Rashee Rice TD +140

Kansas City Chiefs: Justin Watson

The Chiefs have a plethora of receivers vying for the title of WR2 in Kansas City, and I think Watson has done enough to justify that title. His ability to make catches on the deep ball has made him a consistent threat over the top, as he’s gone for 50+ yards 4 times this season, but also been held to 0 yards on 3 separate occasions. He doesn’t get targeted often, but he still has the potential to break a game open and finished with the third most yards behind Kelce and Rice, with 460 yards on 27 catches.

In the Super Bowl, Watson is sitting with a line of 16.5 receiving yards, a total he’s gone over in 11 games this season. Watson’s ability to cash this prop with just a single catch makes his over appear to be a solid look, but I have a different plan in mind.

Watson is the perfect ‘boom or bust’ candidate, and we will attack the betting markets accordingly. If Watson is going to haul in Over 16.5 yards, considering the nature of the deep balls he is often getting, the 25+ yards prop at +160 odds is far more tantalizing. The plus-money price available on an outcome that feels very likely is too good to pass up. The middle of the 49ers secondary will be distracted with trying to contain Kelce and Rice, which could leave Watson with 1-on-1 coverage down the field several times throughout the game. Mahomes doesn’t need a second invitation to accept some single coverage down the field, and it only takes one big catch to cash this prop. But I’m not done yet…

My favorite prop for Watson is 50+ yards at +600 odds. Watson needs to haul in 50+ in just 1/7 games for this prop to be profitable, and considering it’s something he’s done in 4/18 games this season, I am loving him to do so once again. For many of the same reasons as above, Watson will either explode for a solid game or finish with no yards. There is no reason to play around with his standard line, as the bountiful payout available is worth the risk of getting burned.

Predicted stat line: 2 catches, 56 yards

Pick: Justin Watson 25+ Yards +160

Pick: Justin Watson 50+ Yards +600

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Start:	November 23, 2024 @ 10:07 PM
Expert:	Vernon Croy
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