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2024 Super Bowl Teaser Bets: Picks and Predictions

by Mike Allen - 2/1/2024

Super Bowl teaser bets predictions Justin Watson Kansas City Chiefs

The final football game of the year, Super Bowl LVIII, is coming up on Sunday, February 11. Kickoff is set for 6:30 p.m. EST. I like that, and I hope we can all get to bed early but more importantly, with some money in our pockets. We will need a little cash for the extra coffee in the morning.

The Kansas City Chiefs have done it again. I cannot say that I am surprised, and I'm not sick of these guys like I'm hearing from a lot of my colleagues. If you just bet blindly on Patrick Mahomes as an underdog, you would win more than 90% of your bets.

That's why we can't be too much of fans or haters in this business. We are here to make money. And with the spread as close as it is at just 2, it would be quite comforting and likely profitable to give the side or total of our choosing some more points.

We can, and it's called a teaser bet.

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What is a Teaser?

A teaser is a type of parlay wager where the bettor can manipulate the odds in their favor. For example, you can tease the underdog Kansas City Chiefs up from (+2) to (+8). This moves through the key numbers of 3 and 7.

Since this is a parlay bet, though, we will need another leg. The point total is a possibility. We can give the under 6 more points or tease the over down 6. Let’s break this game down a bit and solidify our best teaser bet for Super Bowl LVIII.

San Francisco 49ers (-2) vs Kansas City Chiefs (+2)

Over 47.5: -110

Under 47.5: -110

These are the current betting lines for the spread and point total. The Chiefs at (+2) fall under what we call the Basic Strategy for NFL teaser bets. Many experts already feel the Kansas City Chiefs are going to win. They have advantages at quarterback, defense, Super Bowl experience, momentum, and head coaching.

I don’t know what more you need to bet on an underdog than those. Hey, what about 6 points? I’ll take it.

The point total is a bit more tricky. There are key numbers of point totals as well, but we don't have that same Basic Strategy we use for the spreads that has proven to work year after year.

Kansas City had the #2 defense in the league this year, but the 49ers had the #1 offense. The number has stayed at 47.5 for a few days now. The public may push it up slightly the closer we get to game day.

The question remains. Over or under?

Well, the Kansas City Chiefs are the team with the momentum on their side as you know, and they have been an under team all season. They went under the point total at a 70% clip this season.

San Francisco, on the other hand, was 59% to the over. They have a good defense, but the strength of it is definitely in their secondary. The Chiefs have been throwing the ball short all year. That is their strength. If your strength can be imposed without having to go through the teeth of your opponent's strength, you will have success.

That means that the Chiefs will likely have success moving the ball but potentially falter as the field shortens. That's been the deal for most of the season. And against one of the best pass defenses in the league, we can lean towards the same.

The drives will take up time. San Francisco almost prefers to run you over with guys like Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey than they do beat you over the top. Also, the deep ball has never been the Brock Purdy special.

I believe both defenses will at least keep things in front of them. And with high-level play and veteran coaches, the score is likely to stay low.

If we tease the under 47.5 up 6 more points, that will put the under 53.5. I like the under already, and KC as 2-point underdogs. Let's give both the point spread and the point total a tease and cash our Super Bowl LVII ticket hopefully before midnight.

Pick: Kansas City (+8) and Under 53.5 Points

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