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2025 Super Bowl Teaser Bets: Picks and Predictions

by Mike Allen - 1/29/2025

Super Bowl teaser best bets Zack Baun Philadelphia Eagles

The countdown for Super Bowl LIV has officially begun. Several experts predicted the opening point spread of (-1.5) for the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs would rise to 2 or 2.5, but not many out there think it will get up to 3.

Surprisingly, here we sit at just a point and a half for quarterback/cheat code Patrick Mahomes, the highest-paid head coach in the NFL by far, Andy Reid, and Steve Spagnola, undoubtedly the most loyal defensive coordinator in the NFL.

Honestly, though, that sounds about right, as the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs have won a record 17 consecutive one-score NFL games. As incredible as this team has been, it’s hard to wrap your head around that one.

With the point spread as small as it is and the Philadelphia Eagles putting up 50+ on the Commanders last week, I’m a bit frightened to bet the Chiefs to cover just the 1.5. There’s always the moneyline option. And in this case, it’s nearly the same price at just (-130).

It’s still a tough call. Philly’s defense is one of the best in the league. And if they can get a lead, good luck slowing down Saquon Barkley.

Therefore, let's approach this game differently. With the spread at (+1.5) for the Eagles, we have the opportunity to do a same-game basic strategy teaser bet.

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What is a Teaser?

A teaser is a type of parlay where the bettor can manipulate the betting odds in their favor. The sportsbooks adjust the payout, of course, but that's okay. Generally, we would tease a couple of team’s point spreads up or down. However, since we only have one game, we will need to incorporate the point total as well.

The basic strategy is to tease through the key numbers of 3 and 7 with a 6-point teaser. If you have an underdog of (+1.5) to (+2.5) and give them 6 points, we now have a much bigger dog above a touchdown at (+7.5) to (+8.5).

Philadelphia Eagles (+1.5) vs Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5)

We already mentioned that the Kansas City Chiefs have won 17 straight one-score ball games. This trend doesn't go back that far. Twelve of those wins are from this regular and postseason. The only teams the Chiefs beat by more than one score were the 49ers, Saints, Browns, and late-season Steelers, all of which weren't playoff-caliber teams at the time of competition.

The Eagles are the antithesis of that. Sure, they have youth in their secondary, but Cooper DeJean and especially Quinyon Mitchell have made this defense whole.

Zack Baun is playing like an All-Pro at linebacker, and don't get me started on the defensive line, especially when tasked to stop the run.

The Chiefs only blow out teams they're on another level than, and Philly isn't that. Their leaders have been to the Super Bowl before, and all signs point toward a tight game for Super Bowl LIX.

Point Total

Over 49.5: -110

Under 49.5: -110

We don't have a problem teasing the Eagles up to underdogs above a touchdown at (+7.5), but our next task is determining whether we want to tease the point total up or down. Conventional wisdom says to tease the total down to just 43.5.

Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts has a banged-up knee but still managed to lead his team to over 50 points in the NFC Championship. Now, give him a couple of weeks to recover, and I like both teams to get to at least 24 apiece.

Teaser Pick

Barkley is a very unique type of running back who can bring his team back when playing from behind. Even if KC has the lead for most of the game, I don't see this one getting out of hand. It's entirely outside of the character of both sides.

This is NFL betting, however, and near-perfect logic can take you down the road of failure faster than flipping a coin.

I still love this Super Bowl LIX teaser bet, though. Super Bowls have been going over the total at an 80% rate for nearly a decade. Couple that with the one-score ball game wizards in red, and we have our teaser bet for the big game.

Philadelphia Eagles (+7.5) and Over 43.5 Points (-120)

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