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Super Bowl Running Back Props Predictions and Expert Handicapping

by Spencer Toth - 2/4/2024

Super Bowl running back props Clyde Edwards-Helaire Kansas City Chiefs

The difference between winning and losing can often come down to the effectiveness of the run game. There is a massive difference between 2nd-and-10’s and 2nd-and-5’s. And by keeping the defense honest, big plays can open up down the field. Both of the Super Bowl hopefuls have excellent running backs spearheading the backfield, and there are a plethora of betting opportunities available for the big game.

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Kansas City Chiefs: Isiah Pacheco

Isiah Pacheco is one of the most exhilarating running backs to watch in the NFL, and it will be an absolute treat to get one last look at him this year in the Super Bowl. Pacheco runs with bad intentions, and he truly looks as though he wants to run over anyone who stands in his way. The 2022 7th round draft pick became the clearcut RB1 in Kansas City and improved on his rookie season in almost every significant statistic. His 935 rushing yards with 7 touchdowns was only slightly better than his rookie year. However, where Pacheco has thrived is in the pass catching game. His 44 receptions this year was more than triple the 13 catches he had the year before, and he will certainly be used in both departments against the tricky 49ers defensive front.

Pacheco’s line is set at 65.5 rushing yards and 17.5 receiving yards, with a -120 price tag on a touchdown. In the regular season and playoffs, Pacheco went over his rushing line in 9/17 games, his receiving line in 6/17 games, and scored a touchdown in 11 games this season, including his last 7 games. The nature of Pacheco’s usage will be heavily dependent on the game script, as if the Chiefs find themselves in an early hole, Pacheco will struggle to get the run game going with any consistency. The 49ers are very good at stuffing the run, so we may see Andy Reid get creative with how he utilizes his star running back.

There is only one way to bet Pacheco, and that is for him to find the endzone. A -120 price tag on a touchdown is incredibly generous considering he’s scored at least 1 touchdown in his last 7 games. When the Chiefs get inside the 5, Pacheco has proven he can be trusted to take care of the ball and find the endzone. His rushing and receiving props are too dependent on the scoreline, and I much prefer tailing his touchdown prop at a similar price.

Pick: Isaiah Pacheco Touchdown -120

Kansas City Chiefs: Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Clyde Edwards-Helaire is wrapping up his 4th season in a Chiefs uniform, but he’s seen his stats decline on a yearly basis. He had the reins as the primary back in Kansas City in 2020 and 2021, but the arrival of Pacheco has seen his usage decline significantly. In the regular season, Edwards-Helaire was limited to just 223 rushing yards, 1 touchdown, and 17 receptions, all of which were career lows. While it feels as though his tenure in a Chiefs uniform is coming to a close, there is still one more chance to make some cash on his work.

Edwards-Helaire will come into this game as the backup, but he should still get a few touches throughout the game. Pacheco is extremely good in the open field but can occasionally get stuffed at the line of scrimmage. Meanwhile, Edwards-Helaire has the ability to push through the initial contact and pick up some incredible valuable extra yards in the trenches. He’s been consistently called on in the postseason, averaging 3.3 attempts per game, with 17.6 rushing yards. Predicting whether or not Edwards-Helaire will get a fair share of touches is the most critical aspect of betting on benchwarmers, and I’ve found a line I’m loving regarding the RB2 in Kansas City.

Edwards-Helaire’s props are coming in extremely low, with a 6.5 and 4.5 yard line for rushing and receiving props, respectively. While this may not appear especially intriguing, I am absolutely loving the 6.5 yard line on his rushing prop. Edwards-Helaire likely needs just 2 carries to get the job done, something he’s gotten in 9 of his last 10 games. While this won’t be the most riveting prop of the game, it is truly one of my most confident. Edwards-Helaire is a reliable back that has been in Kansas City for 4 years and has earned the trust of Reid in big moments. While Pacheco will undoubtedly be called on far more frequently, Edwards-Helaire should get a couple chances to stretch his legs and pick up 10+ yards.

Pick: Clyde Edwards-Helaire Over 6.5 Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers: Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey has been crucial to the 49ers success, leading the league in rushing yards by a wide margin. In fact, 2nd place Derrick Henry’s 1,167 rushing yards is closer to 21st in the league than to McCaffrey’s 1,459 yards. The dominance McCaffrey has brought to the 49ers backfield feels borderline unfair, as he has been a consistent rushing, receiving, and touchdown machine all season long. The combination of flair and power has allowed McCaffrey to become the most important player on the 49ers, and he’s coming in as an incredibly short +450 to win Super Bowl MVP… as a running back. There is no doubt that McCaffrey will be impactful. However, the question remains as to whether or not there is money to be made tailing the superstar.

First of all, McCaffrey is a ludacris -220 to score a touchdown, by far the shortest odds in the Super Bowl. He’s done so in all but 3 games this season, making the -220 price tag almost feel like a steal. However, I just can’t do it. There are simply too many variables to lay this kind of number down with anyone in the NFL, as if the 49ers don’t get any goal-to-go situations, the short yardage specialist McCaffrey will struggle to find opportunities to find the endzone.

Instead, we will look at his Over/Unders. McCaffrey is coming in with an 89.5 rushing total, and 34.5 receiving total, both of which feel a little bit high. The Chiefs do an excellent job at locking down the screen game, which is where McCaffrey gets most of his receiving yards. While McCaffrey will find plenty of joy running up the gut, I don’t expect to see McCaffrey involved in the passing game frequently enough to get 35+ yards, without ripping off a big play. He’s only eclipsed this number in 3 of his last 9 games, and while it won’t be a fun bet to root for, the Under is absolutely the play with McCaffrey.

Pick: Christian McCaffrey Under 34.5 Receiving Yards

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