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2024 Super Bowl Props to Avoid - Beware the Sucker Bet

by Spencer Toth - 2/4/2024

Super Bowl props to avoid Chiefs fans

The biggest sports betting event of the year often goes further than just what occurs on the field, as there are countless props available on almost anything remotely related to the big game. You can lay your cold hard cash on simple things, such as the coin toss or the Over/Under on the length of the National Anthem, and even more extravagant props such as whether or not the broadcast will show a player crying during the anthem and if Travis Kelce will propose to Taylor Swift after the game.

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The quantity of props on offer can create a daunting atmosphere on gameday, as the sportsbooks love taking advantage of bettors FOMO (Fear of missing out). Just because you could bet on every prop under the sun, that doesn’t mean you should. The non-football props and a variety of ‘Super Bowl Specials’ are a great way for sportsbooks to entice casual bettors to lay more cash than they should on Sunday evening. Certain props can be profitable, but there is a wide variety of props, often heavily juiced, that will do nothing but empty your pockets and line the pockets of the bookies. Being able to identify and avoid the least profitable props can go a long way in preserving your NFL bankroll, and here are some of the classic examples you should be avoiding.

The Coin Toss:

The fact that sportsbooks have convinced us betting on the flip of a coin is a good idea is beyond me, even though I personally toss a few dollars on it myself. There is nothing wrong with having fun with a small portion of your bankroll, as long as the fact that these are overall losing wagers remains at the front of your mind. The coin toss is the perfect example of a 100% guaranteed losing wager, regardless of any research you may put into it. Most sportsbooks charge anywhere from 5-10% juice on the coin flip, which is the textbook definition of a 50/50 event. It can be a fun way to start off the festivities, but anything more than a couple dollars on the event is flat out ridiculous. ‘Tails Never Fails…’ except for the 50% of the time it does. You’re better off betting against your friends, with no juice, than being baited into tossing money into the fire with your go to betting service.

Props Based on the Last Super Bowl Meeting:

I have already seen countless props available based on these two teams' previous Super Bowl faceoff in 2020, and these are another set of bets you should stay away from. There is no increased likelihood that the score will be 31-20 once again, regardless of the +15000 price tag attached. These are two completely different teams. And even if they weren’t, lightning rarely strikes twice. While it can be intriguing to look into a few things from 4 years ago, using that knowledge to try and outfox the sportsbooks in 2024 is not a wise strategy.

Non-Football Props:

For many casual sports fans and viewers, the magic of the Super Bowl takes place off the field. The usual festivities surrounding new commercials and a solid halftime show are present, and the addition of the Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce romance has created even more off field props on offer. In general, these can be fun to wager on and root for, and in certain scenarios can even be profitable, but they are usually losing wagers. The books will juice these props even harder than the standard -110 on both sides, leaving the margin for victory even tighter. In a similar vein to the Coin Toss, these can be a fun way to keep yourself engaged during the breaks, but a majority of your bankroll must be placed on the actual NFL action. You’ve gotten this far into the season betting on the on-field activities. So, while guessing Usher’s outfit changes or how many times Taylor Swift will be shown on the broadcast is fun, it is simply not profitable.

Heavily Juiced Props:

The juice a sportsbook charges is how they generate revenue, as usually their goal is to have the same amount of money on both sides of a prop and to simply take their 10% cut from the bets. Ironically, the sportsbooks are not in the business of gambling millions of dollars, and paying attention to the juice charged is a great way to minimize losses. For example, Successful Onside kick recovery is coming in at +1400 odds, which appears to be a solid payout. However, these heavily juiced props are an attempt to entice bettors to take a short on the big payout. There were just 2 successful onside kicks in 284 games this year, so expecting a 1/15 chance for a successful conversion in the biggest game of the year is simply a bad bet.

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