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2025 Super Bowl Opening Line Report

by Joey House - 1/27/2025

Super Bowl opening line report Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs

After an exciting conference championship weekend in the NFL, we finally know which two teams are headed to the "Big Easy" for Super Bowl LIX. The Philadelphia Eagles defeated their divisional rivals, the Washington Commanders, by a score of 55-23, earning the right to represent the NFC. In a game that became an "instant classic" from one of the great rivalries in the 21st-century NFL, the Kansas City Chiefs triumphed over the Buffalo Bills, 32-29. This victory marks the fourth time Kansas City has eliminated Buffalo in the last five seasons, and it is the second time they have done so in the AFC Championship. As Patrick Mahomes continues to solidify his legacy in the NFL record books, he will aim to lead the Chiefs to become the first team in NFL history to achieve a "three-peat."

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Initial Side and Total of SB LIX

It is widely believed in the football wagering world that the first few hours after the initial Super Bowl odds are released represent the greatest value, as the lines are "unsullied" by the general betting public. The sportsbooks across the industry have already seen some movement from the first lines they made for the February 9 game. DraftKings, FanDuel, and Caesars all opened with the Chiefs being a 1.5-point favorite. bet365 was the lone book to open at Kansas City -2 and took early action on Philly, causing the line to move to the 1.5-point mark. FanDuel quickly bumped the Chiefs up to -2, which lasted less than 10 minutes before they were back to the original -1.5 mark. As of the beginning of Monday morning, the spread is split between 1.5 and 2 points between the eight major U.S. sportsbooks. The total has seen more permanent moves, as it began at 48.5 for most books before quickly moving up to 49.5 for the online titans DraftKings and FanDuel and 49 for Caesars, BetMGM, and bet365. It briefly broke the 50-point threshold for DK but has settled back to the current resting spot of 49.5.

Another Super Bowl rematch

Just as last year's big game between Kansas City and San Francisco was a rematch from Super Bowl 54, this year's title fight will be the sequel to Super Bowl LVII (57), which saw the Chiefs win a 38-35 shootout against the Eagles. Super Bowl rematches used to be a rarity, as there had been only seven games in the illustrious history of the 57 Super Bowls. But with two rematches in consecutive seasons, the novelty is becoming mundane.

In the first title fight between these historic franchises, Philadelphia entered the game as a slight 1-point favorite with a total of 51.5. The Eagles took a 24-14 lead into halftime and led 27-21 after the first three quarters. The Chiefs, however, rallied in true Mahomes fashion and outscored the Eagles 17-8 in the final stanza, with Harrison Butker kicking the game-winning field goal for Kansas City with just 8 seconds left in the game. All of the early analysis indicates that the sequel should be just as exciting as the original.

Tale of the Tape: ATS and O/U Records

Both teams come into the game with 17 wins, with Kansas City having just two losses during the year and Philadelphia with three. The 2024 version of the Kansas City Chiefs are not the offensive juggernauts of previous editions. While K.C. still has the magician Patrick Mahomes at quarterback and his favorite target at tight end in Travis Kelce, injuries and lack of explosive playmakers kept the Chiefs consistently inconsistent. This lack of consistency is illustrated in contrast to their Straight Up (SU) record of 17-2 versus their Against-The-Spread (ATS) mark of 9-10. Only five of their wins were by more than two possessions, including their divisional playoff victory over the Houston Texans. The 32 points against Buffalo in the AFC Championship is only the third time all season Kansas City has scored over 30 points. This lack of offensive firepower contributed to the Chiefs' Over/Under (O/U) mark of 8-11, the 12th-most unders in the NFL this season.

After a Week 4 loss at Tampa Bay, Philadelphia sat with a record of 2-2 and looked to be going nowhere. They would lose just once more, a 36-33 defeat to the Washington Commanders three days before Christmas. With their revenge win against Washington in the NFC Championship, the Eagles increased their ATS mark to 13-7, the fifth-best in the league with a covering rate of 65%. With the addition of running back Saquon Barkley and new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, the Eagles became a run-centric offense, second in the league in rushing with 186 yards/game. An inconsistent pass attack ranked third from the bottom in yards and second to last in completions, coupled with a defense ranked first in yards allowed and second in points, helped the Eagles compile an O/U record of 9-11.

Team Comparison and Potential Line Movement

Kansas City might have been the luckiest 17-2 team in sports history. They were 11-0 in one-score games, and five of their first 10 wins came down to the last play. Two weeks in a row, they won by a score of 19-17 against the completely inept Las Vegas Raiders and the surprisingly tough Los Angeles Chargers. They gave up 27 points to the NFL's worst offense, the Carolina Panthers, and needed a typical Houdini-like performance from Mahomes to drive the Chiefs into position for a Butker walk-off field goal.

Yet Kansas City opened as a 1.5-point favorite against the league's 7th-best scoring offense and 2nd-best scoring defense. Why? Well, if you believe the conspiracy theorists, it's because the NFL is scripted, and Kansas City is still everybody's darling. Although we love a good conspiracy theory here, we'll try to take a more qualitative view of the matchup.

Coaching

Chiefs' head coach Andy Reid is a future Hall of Famer and expert football strategist. Coming off a bye week, Kansas City is 9-3 SU. The only way that Philly's head coach Nick Sirianni is going to get into the HOF is if he's invited to attend someone's induction. There were times this season when it appeared Sirianni was intentionally throwing the game. Kansas City has a massive advantage.

Offense

Kansas City's Mahomes is attempting to become the first-ever quarterback to win three consecutive Super Bowls. Under his leadership, the Chiefs have already become the first team to make five Super Bowls in six years. However, this year, there was a significant decrease in offensive performance. Mahomes went from 2nd last season to 8th this year in gross passing yardage (5,234 to 4,350). Two seasons ago, Kansas City led the NFL in offensive yards (7,032 yards) and points scored (496). This year, they were 15th in scoring (385 points) and 16th in yards (5,570 yards). Their rushing attack also experienced a decline from 1,970 yards two seasons ago to 1,790 yards in 2024.

When Philadelphia's offense is firing on all cylinders, they establish a strong ground attack and then take deep shots through the air to one of the best tandem of wide receivers in the NFL. While Eagles' quarterback Jalen Hurts had the lowest passing yards in his young career (2,903 yards), he did set a career-high in completion percentage. Philly's offense, however, goes through the best running back in the game today, Saquon Barkley. In his first season with the Birds, Barkley became the 9th NFL running back to eclipse the 2,000-yard barrier in a single season. He has rushed for 442 yards and five touchdowns in his 3-game postseason history with Philly.

Patrick Mahomes is one of the greatest quarterbacks of the past 30 years, much like Saquon Barkley is renowned for his running ability. Although Kansas City's offensive numbers are down this season, Mahomes demonstrated in the AFC Championship that he still can perform at a high level when necessary, giving Kansas City a slight edge.

Defense

Even though the total has risen at least a whole point, more in some sportsbooks, this game has a very legitimate shot of being a low-scoring defensive slugfest. Kansas City has the fourth-best scoring defense, and Philadelphia is second. The Chiefs' defense is 18th in passing yardage and 8th in rushing yards allowed. The Eagles have the NFL's top-rated pass defense regarding yards allowed and the 10th-best rush defense. Philly is also second in the league in turnover margin per game at +1, while K.C. is 11th at +0.3. Again, these are very comparable units to each other, but Philadelphia gets the nod here.

Potential Line Moves

This marks the ninth time in the past 12 seasons that the preseason favorite has reached the Super Bowl. The Chiefs entered the campaign as +500 favorites. Philly had the 4th-lowest odds at +1,200. There is a lot of public backing for Kansas City. Public perception is also slow to change sometimes, so even though Mahomes and Hurts have not had explosive seasons offensively, the betting public remembers all of the acrobatic plays that Mahomes makes and Hurts running defenses ragged with his arms and legs.

In-depth analysis will bring people to the under and also the dog. By the time Jon Batiste starts to sing the National Anthem in NOLA, look for the game to be a pick 'em and the total to be around 48. However, no matter what the spread or total becomes, you can count on Doc's Sports to break it all down for you and provide you with insightful analysis and pertinent stats to make your tickets winning ones.

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