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2024 Super Bowl Opening Line Report and Analysis

by Joey House - 1/29/2024

Super Bowl opening line report Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs

"Vegas, baby, Vegas."

On a road that started on September 9 with a Detroit Lions victory over the reigning Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs, to Sunday night's NFC Championship Game, where those same Detroit Lions blew a 17-point halftime lead epic collapse, the journey ends in Sin City, Las Vegas for Super Bowl LVIII. In between those bookmark games that spanned five calendar months, 143 days, an additional 271 regular season games, and 11 playoff games, we arrived at the penultimate game in American sports.

"Sharps" say that the first two hours after being released are the "virgin lines" and most advantageous for gamblers. From the looks of the current numbers, the line might have been "deflowered".

The opening line installed San Francisco as a modest 2.5-point favorite and a total of 48. There was significant early action on the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs, and the numbers landed, for now, with the Niners laying 1 point and a 47.5 total.

As with any Super Bowl, there are a million and one angles that will be dissected and analyzed in the next 13 days. Here are just a few of the more popular ones that will be discussed.

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Team Rematch

LVIII will be just the 8th team rematch in the 58 years of Super Bowl history. These two franchises met in Super Bowl LIV, in what was the beginning of the Kansas City Chief's current "dynasty": 5 consecutive AFC Championship appearances and their 4th Super Bowl appearance, with a record of 2-1 so far. Kansas City won that game, 31-20. It was the Chiefs who entered that game as a 1.5-point favorite. Bettors of the under were probably dancing in the street with the score being tied 10-10 at halftime and the total being set at 52.5. Things got a bit dicey for them with 31 points being scored in the second half. No under is safe with Mahomes and the Chiefs.

ATS and O/U Records

They say that "Good teams win, great teams cover". With that philosophy in mind, taking a look at Kansas City deserves merit. The Chiefs are 14-6 SU and 12-7-1 ATS, while the Niners are 14-5 SU but only 9-10 ATS. The Niners' last cover was a 27-10 New Year's Eve victory against the hapless Washington Commanders. They lost outright to the Los Angeles Rams as a 5.5-point favorite and then failed to cover in both of its playoff victories.

Kansas City, meanwhile, is on a 5-game covering streak, although it is worthwhile to note that three of those covers came as underdog victories.

The total numbers for these teams make sense when you look at their points for and against records on the season. The 49ers bring the 3rd-best offensive and defensive units in scoring. As such, they have had nine overs to seven unders and one push throughout the regular season. The Chiefs' scoring this season is almost the exact opposite from a season ago. Instead of being ranked 1st in offense and 15th in defense, as they were last year, they are now ranked 15th in offense and have the second-best scoring defense in the NFL. As befitting a defense of its stature, K.C.'s totals for the regular season include 5 overs against 12 unders. This form has held true during the postseason as well, with one over and two unders in Kansas City's playoff run, including a total of 44 of the AFC title game. San Francisco's two-game postseason has seen a split of one under against Green Bay and yesterday's easy cover of the 53.5 total. An old football adage says "Defense wins championships". With the 2nd-best scoring unit and 70% of all their games, Kansas City gets another lean.

Trends

As can be expected of a game of this magnitude, there are more trends and systems than you can imagine. For the novice bettor, which the Super Bowl generates a ton of, it may be difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff. Here are some trends that are useful in helping the novice handicapper.

While modern offenses emphasize passing options and ability, the old reliable rushing attack has powered the majority of Super Bowl victories. Teams that had the most rushing yards in the Super Bowl are 42-15 SU and 40-14-3 ATS. That's a winning percentage of 73.7% SU and even better 74.1% ATS. If you're looking for a system or trend, it doesn't get much better than that.

In one of the most obvious trends, but still important, the teams with the few turnovers have been the most successful. There have been 45 Super Bowls that have had a turnover advantage for one squad. The team that won the turnover battle in those games was 38-7 SU (84.4%) and 36-8-1 ATS (81.8%). Kansas City had committed one turnover in each of its last five games, until playing a flawless (turnover-wise) game in the AFC Championship Game against the Ravens. The Niners turnover differentials look hideous, with seven in its most recent five contests. However, five of those came in their abysmal Christmas Day loss at home against Baltimore.

The Chiefs and 49ers have seven common opponents this season (including playoffs): Green Bay, Detroit, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Jacksonville. San Francisco was 4-3 SU and 2-5 ATS while Kansas City went 4-3 SU/ATS.

As the days roll by, you can count on Doc’s to deliver the comprehensive and in-depth analysis that will have you cashing tickets all the way to the bank.

The most important line, however, is how many times is Taylor Swift going to be shown during the National Anthem. The O/U is currently set to 1.5 with -110 juice. This is a clear under for me. I know that T. Swift is possibly the most popular entertainer in America, but I think the camera crew will focus on the team. I think we get one shot of her, but don't believe the networks think she'll warrant more than that.

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