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2025 Super Bowl MVP Odds and Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 2/5/2025

Super Bowl MVP odds and predictions Kareem Hunt Kansas City Chiefs

The Super Bowl MVP award is the most coveted individual award in the NFL. Not only does winning the award require your team to make the Super Bowl, but a standout performance in front of the nation can springboard a player into superstardom status. Just like the NFL MVP award, this award is often won by quarterbacks. More than half of the Super Bowl MVP awards (33/58) have gone to quarterbacks, and all but one award winner has been on the winning team. In recent years, the trend of quarterbacks winning Super Bowl MVP has grown stronger, with 13 of the last 18 awards going to that position. The five non-quarterback winners were three wide receivers and two linebackers. 

This season, a few interesting trends have emerged regarding the Super Bowl MVP award. Despite the fact a running back hasn’t won the award since 1998, Saquon Barkley is the favorite on the Eagles to win Super Bowl MVP. Patrick Mahomes is still the most likely award recipient. However, can we find value elsewhere on the field as the big game approaches? Here are the top two contenders for each team broken down, with a few long shots worthy of a couple of dollars this weekend. 

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Patrick Mahomes: (+110)

The overwhelming favorite to win the Super Bowl MVP award is Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes already has three Super Bowl MVPs to match his three Super Bowl wins and will look to join an exclusive company with a fourth award. If the Kansas City Chiefs can win a third consecutive Super Bowl, Patrick Mahomes is all but a shoo-in to win this award. His +110 MVP odds compared to the Chiefs -120 moneyline odds imply there is an 88% chance he claims this trophy if the Chiefs are victorious. While that number feels quite high, it is hard to argue with those odds.

Quarterbacks have dominated this award since the turn of the century, and Mahomes has become the face of the NFL. The Kansas City Chiefs have a strong defense capable of stealing the show, but all eyes will be on Mahomes throughout the matchup. He has already cemented himself as the greatest quarterback of this generation and is threatening Tom Brady’s status as the greatest of all time at just 29 years old. His ability to navigate the pocket and remain calm in big situations is like no other man on the planet.

In terms of placing a bet on Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP, you are virtually betting on the Chiefs to win the game. There is the narrative surrounding Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift to worry about, as Kelce’s +1800 odds are the biggest threat to upset Mahomes. However, the Kansas City Chiefs have a chance to make history with a third consecutive Super Bowl, and I can’t imagine this award going to anyone else. Even at +110 odds, if you are planning on betting on Kansas City, some extra value with a Mahomes MVP could be the way to go. 

 

Value rating: 3/5

Saquon Barkley: (+260)

This is the first time in recent memory that a non-quarterback is the favorite to win Super Bowl MVP for their team. Saquon Barkley had a record setting year in the regular season and is within striking distance of numerous playoff records, too. His involvement with the offense, combined with some lackluster showings from Jalen Hurts, has him teed up to win this award. But I don’t agree. Even a dominant showing from Saquon Barkley still doesn’t wrap up this award for him. Quarterbacks have been able to consistently win this award, and it is hard for a running back to get their hands on this trophy. Barkley will likely be the best player on the field for Philadelphia, but it would take the perfect storm for him to win Super Bowl MVP, and there is nowhere near enough upside with +260 odds. Kansas City will load up the tackle box and force Hurts to throw the football. Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo will dial up a defensive game plan to stop Barkley, and it would likely take a 150+ yard game with 2 or 3 touchdowns for Barkely to even have a chance at this award. Barkley needs to explode on offense, Jalen Hurts needs to have a bad game, the Philadelphia Eagles have to win, and there have to be no defensive players that steal the spotlight. Too many things have to go right for a +260 odds prop to even be considered. 

Value rating: 0/5

Jalen Hurts: (+350)

Jalen Hurts has relatively juicy odds for this award and is worth a few units this weekend. While Saquon Barkley has been the more impactful Eagle so far this season, it is impossible to ignore the trends surrounding the Super Bowl MVP. Thirteen of the last 18 awards have gone to the quarterback, and the Eagles have +100 odds to win the game. This line implies Hurts only wins the award 44% of the time when the Eagles win, and that just doesn’t feel accurate. Patrick Mahomes won the Super Bowl MVP two years ago with a 21/27, 182 yard, 3 touchdown game, and Tom Brady won his final Super Bowl MVP with a 21/29, 201 yard, 3 touchdown showing. Once you factor in the ‘Tush Push’ and Hurts’ ability to use his legs behind the line of scrimmage, a stat line similar to those two is suddenly not out of the question. Barkley will need to do something special to steal this award from the quarterback Hurts. While Barkley is certainly capable of doing so, Hurts will win this award more often than not if the Eagles win the Super Bowl. 

Value rating: 5/5

Travis Kelce +1800

Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift have been the primary media focus heading into this game, and it is hard to deny there could be some value at +1800 odds. Kelce has yet to win this award in his career. And with retirement rumors swirling, this could be the perfect ending to his Cinderella story. Kelce is the primary target for Patrick Mahomes, but it will be difficult for him to win this award based on merit alone. Mahomes doesn’t need a massive game to be handed the Super Bowl MVP award, and all of Kelce’s gains will come courtesy of his signal caller. A pair of touchdowns with 90+ yards could be enough to claim this award, but you are better off betting that kind of statline straight up (2 TDs with 90+ yards builds to +1500). This award is the quarterback’s to lose. And even with the Taylor Swift narrative surrounding Kelce, there still isn’t quite enough value to take a shot with a Super Bowl MVP bet. 

Value rating: 1/5 

Longshots to Sprinkle:

Kareem Hunt +6000

Kareem Hunt offers some value to win this award. His off-field issues have certainly affected the trajectory of his career, but he has been able to stay out of the media since his 2018 incident where he shoved a woman in a hotel hallway. It remains to be seen if the league has forgiven Hunt over the last 8 years, but a dominant showing on the ground could allow Hunt to claim the ultimate individual prize. He is one touchdown away from breaking the record for most consecutive postseason games with a touchdown to begin a career with 8. Hunt specializes in short yardage scores, which gives him a chance to rack up some solid numbers on the boxscore. At +6000 odds, Hunt is the only longshot I can envision snatching this award from Patrick Mahomes in a Chiefs victory. 

Value rating: 4/5

Zack Baun +9000

This is the best longshot bet to make. Zack Baun has been instrumental to the Eagles success on the defensive side of the ball. He always finds a way to hang around the football, and a few big plays on Patrick Mahomes could be enough to steal this award. Linebackers generally get the most credit on the defensive side of the ball, as they are always in the middle of the action. A dozen tackles with a couple of turnovers could solidify Baun as the Super Bowl MVP, and there is plenty of upside for him to do so. Longshots for the Eagles are also far more tempting than the Chiefs, as Philadelphia doesn’t have a dominant quarterback like Patrick Mahomes. If there is a different Eagle outside of Hurts and Barkley you have your eyes on, do not hesitate to pull the trigger. Baun offers the most value while having a realistic chance to win in my eyes, and I recommend a full unit for a chance at a massive Super Bowl payout. 

Value rating: 5/5

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