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2024 Super Bowl MVP Odds and Predictions

by Matt Zitt - 1/31/2024

Super Bowl MVP odds and predictions Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs

The San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs will face off on February 11 in Las Vegas in a battle for the Lombardi Trophy. The Chiefs are in their fourth Super Bowl in the past five seasons and going for their third title in that span. It is no surprise that Patrick Mahomes has the shortest odds to win Super Bowl MVP as he has taken home the honor in the Chiefs past two SB victories. Last year, he was the 11th player in NFL history to win league MVP and Super Bowl MVP in the same season. Before you lock in any Super Bowl 58 MVP picks, it is important to note that you should target a player on the team you think will win the big game. The MVP has come from the losing team just one time in the Super Bowl era. Doc’s Sports will break down some of the favorites and dark horses to take home the coveted award below.

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Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs (+125)

His name speaks for itself, and I dished out plenty of stats above to prove he is the perfect candidate for this year's Super Bowl MVP. The interesting tidbit from oddsmakers is they have the 49ers favored to win the game, but Mahomes is the favorite for MVP. Regardless, he deserves to be the favorite. He has not committed a turnover yet these playoffs while posting a passer rating over 100.

Brock Purdy, QB, 49ers (+225)

Purdy’s case for MVP is an easy one, as he is the starting quarterback for the Super Bowl favorite San Francisco 49ers. He is coming off a solid performance in the NFC Championship Game where he led a comeback after being down 17 points. He showed he can make enough plays to lead his team to a title. The only negative knock against the QB is that his skill position teammates are so star-studded, they all loom as big threats to overshadow their QB.

Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers (+475)

There is some real value at +475 for how great McCaffrey truly is. The Niners running back has dominated in the playoffs to a tune of 260 total yards and four touchdowns in two playoff games. He has seen 24 touches in both games against the Packers and the Lions and should be the focal point of the offense in the Super Bowl. Coach Shanahan will be all aboard for unleashing McCaffrey against the Chiefs defense.

Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs (+1200)

The future Hall-of-Fame TE reminded us why he is one of the best to ever take the field with his performance in the AFC Championship Game. He torched a dominant Ravens defense, finishing with 11 catches on 11 targets for 116 yards and touchdown. He also scored two TDs against the Bills in the Divisional Round. He passed Jerry Rice for the most playoff receptions in NFL history. Another monster game from Kelce could catapult him to MVP honors.

Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers (+2000)

Deebo is an interesting case for MVP due to the potential of a big performance through the air and the ground. Back in SB LIV against the Chiefs, Samuel rushed for 53 yards and added 39 through the air. He is coming off a 96-yard performance against the Lions in the NFC Championship Game. If Samuel can break a big run for a TD and have a solid receiving day, he could steal the award away from Purdy.

Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs (+2800)

The Chiefs’ running back is an appealing selection for SB MVP due to the volume of touches he is seeing this postseason. Pacheco averaged 14.6 rushes per game in the regular season, but has 24, 15, and 24 rushes in three playoff games. He also has a touchdown in all three playoff wins. Not to mention, he can be a real threat in the passing game with 44 catches in the regular season and has hauled in six receptions in the playoffs. Pacheco is a dark horse to win the award.

Rashee Rice, WR, Chiefs (+5000)

Rice’s performances in the latter half of the season have been remarkable. His ability to turn games around and him becoming one of Mahomes’ favorite targets make him a dark horse for the SB MVP. He has the potential for eight or nine catches, over 100 yards, and a TD in every game. Such a performance in the SB could swing the MVP odds in his favor.  

George Kittle, TE, 49ers (+6000)

Kittle has lots of upside because he can be one of the most explosive players on the football field. He caught seven touchdowns in the regular season and playoffs, one behind Aiyuk’s team high of eight. The downside is that the Chiefs defense allowed the third-fewest average receiving yards to opposing tight ends and just held the Ravens TE group to 31 yards.

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, (+6000)

Aiyuk led the 49ers in receptions and receiving yards during the season. He is a big-play receiver and can go off at any time. In the NFC Championship Game against the Lions, he finished with three catches for 68 yards and a touchdown. Another dark horse against a stout Chiefs secondary, a huge game could earn him SB MVP honors.  

Nick Bosa, DE, 49ers (+7500)

Bosa can be a game wrecker. Just ask Jared Goff. He took over the NFC Championship Game, getting to Goff twice and throwing him to the turf. He tallied eight pressures and two quarterback hits in addition to those two sacks. He finished the regular season with only 10.5 sacks but had 95 QB pressures. His ability to get into the backfield could wreck Patrick Mahomes dreams of another Super Bowl. Bosa could be a dark horse for MVP. 

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